Merrimack Warriors at Siena Saints: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 12:00 AM ETMVP Arena · at Siena · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Merrimack and Siena
MRMK	This season	SIE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIE 69–67 · win probability SIE 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 136.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MRMK 3, SIE 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SIEBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MRMK 24.8%, SIE 31.8%. Defensive: MRMK 60.1%, SIE 70.5%

MRMKBig

SIE offense vs MRMK defense

Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings

SIEBig

MRMK offense vs SIE defense

Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings

MRMKSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MRMK 14.8%, SIE 15.8%. Forced: MRMK 20.4%, SIE 17.0%

MRMKSmall

Three-pointers

MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%; SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 46.1% and 32.2% of their shots

SIESmall

Home court

SIE at home. This season: SIE 0-0 at home, MRMK 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MRMK 38.2, SIE 33.4. Allowed: MRMK 37.1, SIE 27.5

Context

Schedule so far

MRMK has played the 286th-hardest schedule, SIE the 320th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7; SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MRMK 37%, SIE 28%. Transfers in: MRMK 3, SIE 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 64 possessions: MRMK plays 64.4 a game (357th fastest), SIE 64.4 (354th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SIE -1.8	—
Total	—	136.6	—
Projected score	—	MRMK 67.4 · SIE 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIE -0.9	—
1H total	64.0	—
1H projected score	MRMK 31.5 · SIE 32.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	9-8	—
SIE WWWWW	21-14	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: MRMK away; SIE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11
SIE UUUUU	11-24	31%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SIE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Merrimack

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs FAIR	W74–63WU
Dec 10	vs UVM	L59–66LU
Dec 12	@ MSU	No recent meeting

Siena

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ QUIN	L62–74LU
Dec 9	vs SBU	L66–75WO
Dec 12	@ UALB	W73–63LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MRMK 3–1 SIEMRMK leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MRMK 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	SIE 64 vs MRMK 54	MRMK -2.5	SIE W
Feb 20, 2025-26	SIE 72 @ MRMK 79	MRMK -2.5	MRMK W
Jan 9, 2025-26	MRMK 63 @ SIE 59	SIE -5.5	MRMK W
Jan 18, 2024-25	SIE 58 @ MRMK 64	MRMK -6.5	SIE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Siena

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W L L W W W W W W W L L L W L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W W W L L L W W L W W L W L W L W L W W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-2431%

U U O U U O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRY	W 82-66	-13.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@BRWN	W 62-46	-3.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 12	@SBU	L 66-75	+9.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 17	vsCOLG	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsUALB	W 73-63	-10.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 24	@HC	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 28	vsLONG	W 70-63	-5.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AMER	W 59-55	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsME	W 64-60	-9.5	L −5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 5	vsNIA	W 83-54	-12.5	W +16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	vsCAN	W 74-52	-17.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 17	@UVM	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 22	@IU	L 60-81	+21.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 2	@IONA	L 72-75	-1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 147
Jan 4	@RID	W 74-65	-8.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	vsMRMK	L 59-63	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@MSM	W 67-50	-2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 14	vsSHU	L 80-86	-8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 17	@MAN	W 74-59	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	vsFAIR	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsMRST	W 69-50	-1.5	W +17.5	133.5	U 119
Jan 30	@NIA	W 82-79	-9.5	L −6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	@CAN	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	vsIONA	W 79-72	-8.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 7	@SPU	L 65-70	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsQUIN	L 62-74	-3.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 136
Feb 15	@MRST	W 67-63	+2.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 130
Feb 20	@MRMK	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsSPU	W 72-63	-5.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 27	@FAIR	L 58-72	-1.5	L −15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsRID	W 76-61	-14.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsMSM	W 63-58	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 121
Mar 8	vsFAIR	W 76-61	-1.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 10	vsMRMK	W 64-54	+2.5	W +12.5	128.5	U 118
Mar 19	vsDUKE	L 65-71	+28.5	W +22.5	137.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

+2.5

BRWN

W 62-46

+12.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−9.5

UALB

W 73-63

−0.5

W 73-69

−5.5

LONG

W 70-63

+1.5

AMER

W 59-55

+1.5

W 64-60

−5.5

NIA

W 83-54

+16.5

CAN

W 74-52

+4.5

UVM

L 69-83

−11.5

L 60-81

+0.5

IONA

L 72-75

−4.5

RID

W 74-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−9.5

MSM

W 67-50

+14.5

SHU

L 80-86

−14.5

MAN

W 74-59

+8.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+1.5

MRST

W 69-50

+17.5

NIA

W 82-79

−6.5

CAN

W 78-63

+6.5

IONA

W 79-72

−1.5

SPU

L 65-70

−6.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−15.5

MRST

W 67-63

+6.5

MRMK

L 72-79

−4.5

SPU

W 72-63

+3.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−15.5

RID

W 76-61

+0.5

MSM

W 63-58

+2.5

FAIR

W 76-61

+13.5

MRMK

W 64-54

+12.5

DUKE

L 65-71

+22.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRY

W 82-66

−0.5

BRWN

W 62-46

−34.5

SBU

L 66-75

+0.5

COLG

L 69-72

−5.5

UALB

W 73-63

−4.5

W 73-69

+4.5

LONG

W 70-63

−12.5

AMER

W 59-55

−23.5

W 64-60

−3.5

NIA

W 83-54

+7.5

CAN

W 74-52

−5.5

UVM

L 69-83

+17.5

L 60-81

−4.5

IONA

L 72-75

−2.5

RID

W 74-65

+3.5

MRMK

L 59-63

−10.5

MSM

W 67-50

−22.5

SHU

L 80-86

+26.5

MAN

W 74-59

−11.5

FAIR

W 85-77

+19.5

MRST

W 69-50

−14.5

NIA

W 82-79

+32.5

CAN

W 78-63

+5.5

IONA

W 79-72

+10.5

SPU

L 65-70

−0.5

QUIN

L 62-74

−8.5

MRST

W 67-63

−3.5

MRMK

L 72-79

+17.5

SPU

W 72-63

−0.5

FAIR

L 58-72

−12.5

RID

W 76-61

−0.5

MSM

W 63-58

−14.5

FAIR

W 76-61

−1.5

MRMK

W 64-54

−10.5

DUKE

L 65-71

−1.5

over 11under 24avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack has the better starters

Position by position: Merrimack 1, Siena 0, even 4

MerrimackBetterSiena

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

MRMKSmall

G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

Even

G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

No call

G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

No call

G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

MerrimackBetterSiena

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

SIESmall

SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

MRMKBig

SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

MRMKSmall

Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestMRMK betterSIE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

Siena

Guards

T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MRMK68.5 #304

SIE70.4 #276

Points per possession

MRMK1.06 #221

SIE1.09 #154

Pace (possessions)

MRMK64.4 #357

SIE64.4 #354

Shooting

Effective FG%

MRMK49.1 #288

SIE50.4 #222

3-point %

MRMK32.7 #243

SIE30.6 #330

3-point attempt rate

MRMK46.1 #46

SIE32.2 #327

Free throw rate

MRMK38.2 #99

SIE33.4 #226

Possessions

Turnover rate

MRMK14.8 #55

SIE15.8 #126

Offensive rebound rate

MRMK24.8 #343

SIE31.8 #133

Assists per game

MRMK12.4 #257

SIE13.5 #182

Defense

Points allowed

MRMK66.5 #19

SIE65.8 #12

Points allowed per possession

MRMK1.03 #62

SIE1.02 #44

Opponent effective FG%

MRMK46.7 #17

SIE48.5 #48

Opponent 3-point %

MRMK30.3 #12

SIE32.4 #82

Turnovers forced

MRMK20.4 #16

SIE17.0 #154

Defensive rebound rate

MRMK60.1 #365

SIE70.5 #133

Steals per game

MRMK8.2 #32

SIE5.8 #262

Blocks per game

MRMK5.2 #13

SIE3.1 #205

MRMK		SIE
Scoring
68.5 #304	Points per game	70.4 #276
1.06 #221	Points per possession	1.09 #154
64.4 #357	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #354
Shooting
49.1 #288	Effective FG%	50.4 #222
32.7 #243	3-point %	30.6 #330
46.1 #46	3-point attempt rate	32.2 #327
38.2 #99	Free throw rate	33.4 #226
Possessions
14.8 #55	Turnover rate	15.8 #126
24.8 #343	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #133
12.4 #257	Assists per game	13.5 #182
Defense
66.5 #19	Points allowed	65.8 #12
1.03 #62	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #44
46.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #48
30.3 #12	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #82
20.4 #16	Turnovers forced	17.0 #154
60.1 #365	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #133
8.2 #32	Steals per game	5.8 #262
5.2 #13	Blocks per game	3.1 #205

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duke65–71
Wvs Merrimack64–54
Wvs Fairfield76–61
Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack Warriors at Siena Saints

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

Siena

Merrimack has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Merrimack

Siena