Saint Francis Red Wolves at Radford Highlanders: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 7, 2:30 PM ETThe Dedmon Center · at Radford

Final

#246RADRadford89▲ winner

Closing lineRAD -13.5✓ RAD covered by 19.5

Closing total154.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and Radford
SFPA	This season	RAD
0-7	Record	1-7
2-5	ATS	2-6
3-4	O/U	5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 71–83 RAD · ✓ RAD (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	32	24	56
RAD	45	44	89

1st half: SFPA 32, RAD 45 (RAD by 13). The model had RAD by 7.2 and a total of 71.7 (actual 77).

Team stats

SFPA		RAD
21-61 34%	Field goals	33-62 53%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	13-31 42%
5-7 71%	Free throws	10-14 71%
31 10 off	Rebounds	41 10 off
11	Assists	19
9	Steals	6
1	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	12
16	Fouls	14
16	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	10

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skylar Wicks G	28	14	4	2	6-14	2-5
Victor Payne Jr. G	26	6	6	1	2-9	2-6
Zion Russell G	25	4	6	1	1-7	1-4
Gestin Liberis F	23	4	5	1	1-2	0-0
Ahmad Harrison G	22	6	1	0	3-9	0-2
Bench
Paris Papadatos G	20	15	1	2	5-8	3-6
Cameron Tweedy F	13	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Ralph Martino Jr. G	13	0	2	2	0-1	0-0
Chris Moncrief G	12	3	1	1	1-4	1-2
Trey Weiand G	10	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Brandon Russell G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
KJ Swain Jr. G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko, Melvin Weaver III, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish

RAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaylon Johnson G	29	18	3	7	6-14	4-11
Tyson Brown F	25	1	9	1	0-1	0-0
Del Jones G	24	9	3	3	4-9	0-2
Dennis Parker Jr. G	23	9	4	2	4-7	0-2
Lukas Walls G	19	14	4	1	5-6	4-5
Bench
Frederik Erichsen F	19	9	4	1	3-7	1-5
Mari Jordan G	17	10	4	1	4-8	1-2
Brennan Rigsby Jr. G	14	8	2	1	3-3	2-2
Warren Keel Jr. G	11	0	0	2	0-2	0-1
Louie Jordan F	8	5	0	0	1-1	1-1
Gabriel Ferreira C	8	4	5	0	2-3	0-0
Bradley Land G	3	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Zion Walker, Diogo Alves

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RAD -13.5	RAD -12.2	SFPA +1.3	L RAD covered
Total	154.5	153.2	Under 1.3	W Under
Projected score	—	SFPA 70.5 · RAD 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RAD -7.2	RAD -13.0
1H total	71.7	77
1H projected score	SFPA 32.2 · RAD 39.5	SFPA 32 · RAD 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFPA LLLWW	2-5	29%	1-3	2-5
RAD LLLWL	2-6	25%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: SFPA away, as underdog; RAD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA UUUUO	3-4	43%	0-7
RAD OUOUO	5-3	63%	1-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPAlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
RADlast 8	1-7 13%	2-6 25%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SFPA 0–1 RADRAD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SFPA 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2024-25	RAD 79 @ SFPA 70	SFPA +6.5	RAD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsBEL	L 57-94	+21.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTROY	L 64-74	+21.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 138
Dec 1	@XAV	L 74-96	+27.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

BEL

L 57-94

−15.5

TROY

L 64-74

+11.5

XAV

L 74-96

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

BEL

L 57-94

−6.5

TROY

L 64-74

−13.5

XAV

L 74-96

+17.5

over 3under 4avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Radford

8 games played

Straight up

1-7

13% wins

Against the spread

2-6

25% covers · avg −10.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-713%

W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-625%

L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-363%

O O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsUNCW	L 73-81	+4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 24	@SMU	L 72-89	+23.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 161
Dec 3	vsUSM	L 75-82	-3.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

UNCW

L 73-81

−3.5

SMU

L 72-89

+6.5

USM

L 75-82

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

UNCW

L 73-81

+2.5

SMU

L 72-89

−4.5

USM

L 75-82

+4.5

over 5under 3avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves at Radford Highlanders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Radford

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Radford