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  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. UGA vs UCF
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Georgia Bulldogs vs UCF Knights

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#34UGAGeorgia
vs
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UGAThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UGA 85–84 · win probability UGA 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 169.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UGA has more of the edges

UGA 5, UCF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UGABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UGA 36.9, UCF 30.5. Allowed: UGA 30.2, UCF 34.9
UGABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UGA 14.3%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: UGA 18.4%, UCF 15.7%
UCFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UGA 34.9%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: UGA 65.1%, UCF 71.2%
UGASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
UGASmall
UGA offense vs UCF defense
Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
UCFSmall
Three-pointers
UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 44.3% and 34.8% of their shots
UCFSmall
UCF offense vs UGA defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings
UGASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UGA 46%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: UGA 4, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: UGA plays 74.7 a game (8th fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UGA has played the 52nd-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UGA -1.7—
Total—169.1—
Projected score—UGA 85.4 · UCF 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUGA -1.1—
1H total78.9—
1H projected scoreUGA 40 · UCF 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia 1, UCF 0, even 4
GeorgiaBetterUCF
G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95
UGABig
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
Even
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89
Even
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
Even
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
GeorgiaBetterUCF
UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8
UGASmall
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7
UCFSmall
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
UGASmall
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players
UCFSmall
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
UCFSmall
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUGA betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia
Guards
B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew
Forwards
K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UGAUCF
Scoring
89.4 #3Points per game80.7 #53
1.19 #18Points per possession1.13 #77
74.7 #8Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
54.2 #61Effective FG%52.6 #123
33.8 #1853-point %36.2 #49
44.3 #833-point attempt rate34.8 #281
36.9 #131Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
14.3 #31Turnover rate16.0 #137
34.9 #49Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
14.8 #102Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
79.8 #314Points allowed78.3 #274
1.07 #135Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
50.6 #134Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
33.6 #165Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
18.4 #82Turnovers forced15.7 #241
65.1 #336Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
8.4 #21Steals per game5.6 #285
6.0 #3Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Louis77–102
  • Lvs Ole Miss72–76
  • W@ Mississippi St102–96
  • Wvs Alabama98–88
  • Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.