1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. BGSU @ IU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Bowling Green Falcons at Indiana Hoosiers

Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana
#200BGSUBowling Green
@
#38IUIndiana
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BGSUThis seasonIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 87–65 · win probability IU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

BGSU 2, IU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
IUBig
IU offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BGSU has played the 192nd-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less
IUBig
BGSU offense vs IU defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings
IUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BGSU plays 70.5 a game (96th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points
BGSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BGSU 28.7%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: BGSU 73.1%, IU 70.8%
BGSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BGSU 16.4%, IU 15.1%. Forced: BGSU 18.5%, IU 15.1%
IUSmall
Home court
IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, BGSU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.2% and 50.5% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BGSU 37.0, IU 35.0. Allowed: BGSU 37.2, IU 37.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BGSU 24%, IU 19%. Transfers in: BGSU 4, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—IU -21.7—
Total—152.1—
Projected score—BGSU 65.2 · IU 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadIU -12.8—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreBGSU 29.2 · IU 41.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Indiana has the better starters

Position by position: Bowling Green 0, Indiana 2, even 3
Bowling GreenBetterIndiana
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
IUSmall
G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
IUBig
G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
Even
G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64
Bowling GreenBetterIndiana
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
IUBig
IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
IUBig
IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
IUBig
Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
IUBig
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
IUSmall
Bench+0.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBGSU betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
Indiana
Guards
M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min
Forwards
A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew
Centers
S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BGSUIU
Scoring
76.8 #124Points per game78.2 #93
1.08 #177Points per possession1.16 #46
70.5 #96Pace (possessions)67.4 #260
Shooting
51.8 #153Effective FG%56.1 #22
34.4 #1483-point %34.7 #138
34.2 #2893-point attempt rate50.5 #14
37.0 #129Free throw rate35.0 #179
Possessions
16.4 #164Turnover rate15.1 #71
28.7 #244Offensive rebound rate26.9 #300
13.1 #203Assists per game16.6 #34
Defense
72.7 #127Points allowed72.2 #109
1.04 #71Points allowed per possession1.07 #131
51.0 #163Opponent effective FG%49.0 #68
33.5 #161Opponent 3-point %33.1 #128
18.5 #73Turnovers forced15.1 #284
73.1 #31Defensive rebound rate70.8 #122
8.2 #30Steals per game4.7 #348
3.5 #138Blocks per game2.7 #278
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern61–74
  • L@ Ohio State78–91
  • Wvs Minnesota77–47
  • Lvs Michigan St64–77
  • Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.