Towson Tigers at Pennsylvania Quakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 6:00 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Towson and Penn
TOW	This season	PENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 74–68 · win probability PENN 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

TOW 1, PENN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PENNBig

Three-pointers

TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%; PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 34.9% and 35.4% of their shots

TOWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOW 36.0%, PENN 30.0%. Defensive: TOW 70.9%, PENN 68.7%

PENNBig

TOW offense vs PENN defense

Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

PENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOW 27%, PENN 83%. Transfers in: TOW 3, PENN 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: TOW plays 64.0 a game (360th fastest), PENN 69.3 (158th). Faster games mean more points

PENNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOW 15.8%, PENN 15.4%. Forced: TOW 15.1%, PENN 17.3%

PENNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOW 30.4, PENN 33.9. Allowed: TOW 29.3, PENN 27.5

PENNSmall

Home court

PENN at home. This season: PENN 0-0 at home, TOW 0-0 away

Even

PENN offense vs TOW defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5; PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1

Context

Schedule so far

TOW has played the 140th-hardest schedule, PENN the 126th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PENN -5.8	—
Total	—	141.3	—
Projected score	—	TOW 67.7 · PENN 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PENN -3.4	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	TOW 31.4 · PENN 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOW LWLWW	15-17	47%	5-8	—
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—

Venue/role: TOW away; PENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOW UUOUO	12-20	38%	17-15
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOW	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Towson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs BUF	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ HOW	No recent meeting

Penn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs BUCK	W80–61WU
Dec 7	@ LAF	W74–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TOW 2–0 PENNTOW leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TOW has won the last 2 meetings · TOW 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2022-23	TOW 80 @ PENN 74	PENN +2.5	TOW W
Nov 23, 2021-22	PENN 61 @ TOW 76	TOW -1.5	TOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Towson

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W L W W L W L L W L L L L W W W W L L W L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U U U O U O O O U U U U U U O O U U U O O O U U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsCOR	W 93-80	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@UCF	L 61-86	+9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 16	@KU	L 49-73	+14.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsSHU	W 72-47	-13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	@W&M	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	@HAMP	L 62-63	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 125
Jan 3	vsMONM	L 48-62	-8.5	L −22.5	136.5	U 110
Jan 8	vsHOF	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	@NE	W 87-78	-2.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsCOFC	W 61-52	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsDREX	W 59-58	-7.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 22	@ELON	W 72-59	+1.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 24	@NCAT	L 73-80	-7.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	vsUNCW	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsHAMP	W 82-50	-8.5	W +23.5	131.5	O 132
Feb 7	@HOF	L 49-71	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsSTBK	W 69-57	-7.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 15	@MONM	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 143
Feb 22	@DREX	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsELON	W 58-56	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsCAM	W 71-67	-4.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Mar 3	@STBK	W 69-57	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsHAMP	W 74-68	-7.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsCOFC	W 81-56	+3.5	W +28.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 9	vsHOF	L 65-68	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

COR

W 93-80

+6.5

UCF

L 61-86

−15.5

L 49-73

−9.5

SHU

W 72-47

+11.5

W&M

L 70-84

−12.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−7.5

MONM

L 48-62

−22.5

HOF

L 67-78

−12.5

W 87-78

+6.5

COFC

W 61-52

+5.5

DREX

W 59-58

−6.5

ELON

W 72-59

+14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

−14.5

UNCW

L 73-82

−10.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+23.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

+4.5

MONM

L 71-72

+0.5

DREX

L 62-68

−8.5

ELON

W 58-56

−3.5

CAM

W 71-67

−0.5

STBK

W 69-57

+10.5

HAMP

W 74-68

−1.5

COFC

W 81-56

+28.5

HOF

L 65-68

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

COR

W 93-80

+18.5

UCF

L 61-86

−1.5

L 49-73

−15.5

SHU

W 72-47

−26.5

W&M

L 70-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−11.5

MONM

L 48-62

−26.5

HOF

L 67-78

+10.5

W 87-78

+21.5

COFC

W 61-52

−30.5

DREX

W 59-58

−7.5

ELON

W 72-59

−14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

+13.5

UNCW

L 73-82

+19.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+0.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

−9.5

MONM

L 71-72

+4.5

DREX

L 62-68

−0.5

ELON

W 58-56

−30.5

CAM

W 71-67

−4.5

STBK

W 69-57

−11.5

HAMP

W 74-68

+9.5

COFC

W 81-56

−1.5

HOF

L 65-68

+0.5

over 12under 20avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Towson 1, Penn 1, even 3

TowsonBetterPenn

G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

Even

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61

Even

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

PENNBig

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

Even

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

TOWSmall

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

TowsonBetterPenn

TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1

PENNSmall

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4

Even

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

PENNSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

TOWSmall

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOW betterPENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Towson

Guards

B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew

Forwards

C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOW67.1 #332

PENN74.4 #181

Points per possession

TOW1.05 #256

PENN1.08 #196

Pace (possessions)

TOW64.0 #360

PENN69.3 #158

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOW46.5 #345

PENN50.4 #223

3-point %

TOW29.4 #349

PENN38.3 #13

3-point attempt rate

TOW34.9 #277

PENN35.4 #264

Free throw rate

TOW30.4 #299

PENN33.9 #212

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOW15.8 #128

PENN15.4 #93

Offensive rebound rate

TOW36.0 #24

PENN30.0 #200

Assists per game

TOW9.5 #364

PENN13.7 #171

Defense

Points allowed

TOW66.4 #18

PENN74.5 #173

Points allowed per possession

TOW1.04 #73

PENN1.07 #137

Opponent effective FG%

TOW48.5 #49

PENN52.1 #218

Opponent 3-point %

TOW30.9 #33

PENN32.2 #73

Turnovers forced

TOW15.1 #271

PENN17.3 #132

Defensive rebound rate

TOW70.9 #117

PENN68.7 #220

Steals per game

TOW5.8 #253

PENN6.5 #184

Blocks per game

TOW3.3 #175

PENN3.1 #199

TOW		PENN
Scoring
67.1 #332	Points per game	74.4 #181
1.05 #256	Points per possession	1.08 #196
64.0 #360	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #158
Shooting
46.5 #345	Effective FG%	50.4 #223
29.4 #349	3-point %	38.3 #13
34.9 #277	3-point attempt rate	35.4 #264
30.4 #299	Free throw rate	33.9 #212
Possessions
15.8 #128	Turnover rate	15.4 #93
36.0 #24	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #200
9.5 #364	Assists per game	13.7 #171
Defense
66.4 #18	Points allowed	74.5 #173
1.04 #73	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #137
48.5 #49	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #218
30.9 #33	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #73
15.1 #271	Turnovers forced	17.3 #132
70.9 #117	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #220
5.8 #253	Steals per game	6.5 #184
3.3 #175	Blocks per game	3.1 #199

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra65–68
Wvs Charleston81–56
Wvs Hampton74–68
W@ Stony Brook69–57
Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Towson Tigers at Pennsylvania Quakers

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Towson

Penn

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Towson

Penn