1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. BUF vs TOW
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Buffalo Bulls vs Towson Tigers

The Palestra · Neutral site
#237BUFBuffalo
vs
#165TOWTowson
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BUFThis seasonTOW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOW 72–70 · win probability TOW 57%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BUF has more of the edges

BUF 3, TOW 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TOWBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BUF 27.1%, TOW 36.0%. Defensive: BUF 68.9%, TOW 70.9%
TOWSmall
BUF offense vs TOW defense
Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings
BUFSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BUF 39.6, TOW 30.4. Allowed: BUF 31.4, TOW 29.3
BUFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BUF 16.2%, TOW 15.8%. Forced: BUF 17.8%, TOW 15.1%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: BUF plays 68.2 a game (219th fastest), TOW 64.0 (360th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
BUF has played the 198th-hardest schedule, TOW the 140th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BUFSmall
Three-pointers
BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%; TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 45.5% and 34.9% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BUF 8%, TOW 27%. Transfers in: BUF 7, TOW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1; TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5
Even
TOW offense vs BUF defense
Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TOW -1.9—
Total—142.5—
Projected score—BUF 70.3 · TOW 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTOW -1.0—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreBUF 32.8 · TOW 33.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Buffalo has the better starters

Position by position: Buffalo 2, Towson 1, even 2
BuffaloBetterTowson
G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39
Even
G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15
TOWBig
G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61
G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55
BUFSmall
G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
Even
F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75
BUFBig
F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
BuffaloBetterTowson
BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6
TOWSmall
TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4
BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7
Even
TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
TOWBig
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
BUFSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
TOWBig
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestBUF betterTOW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Buffalo
Guards
D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew
Towson
Guards
B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew
Forwards
C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BUFTOW
Scoring
77.5 #106Points per game67.1 #332
1.14 #73Points per possession1.05 #256
68.2 #219Pace (possessions)64.0 #360
Shooting
55.4 #30Effective FG%46.5 #345
37.9 #203-point %29.4 #349
45.5 #573-point attempt rate34.9 #277
39.6 #65Free throw rate30.4 #299
Possessions
16.2 #152Turnover rate15.8 #128
27.1 #291Offensive rebound rate36.0 #24
14.1 #138Assists per game9.5 #364
Defense
77.0 #244Points allowed66.4 #18
1.13 #279Points allowed per possession1.04 #73
55.1 #333Opponent effective FG%48.5 #49
35.1 #252Opponent 3-point %30.9 #33
17.8 #105Turnovers forced15.1 #271
68.9 #209Defensive rebound rate70.9 #117
7.6 #72Steals per game5.8 #253
2.8 #262Blocks per game3.3 #175
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Akron70–73
  • L@ Toledo78–99
  • Wvs E Michigan72–67
  • Lvs C Michigan70–75
  • L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra65–68
  • Wvs Charleston81–56
  • Wvs Hampton74–68
  • W@ Stony Brook69–57
  • Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.