Buffalo Bulls at Western Michigan Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETUniversity Arena (MI) · at W Michigan · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Buffalo and W Michigan
BUF	This season	WMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WMU 79–74 · win probability WMU 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BUF has more of the edges

BUF 4, WMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BUFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BUF 39.6, WMU 32.8. Allowed: BUF 31.4, WMU 37.5

BUFBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BUF 16.2%, WMU 16.8%. Forced: BUF 17.8%, WMU 13.4%

WMUBig

WMU offense vs BUF defense

Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings

WMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BUF 27.1%, WMU 30.5%. Defensive: BUF 68.9%, WMU 70.9%

BUFSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1; WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4

BUFSmall

Three-pointers

BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%; WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%. Threes are 45.5% and 36.1% of their shots

WMUSmall

Home court

WMU at home. This season: WMU 0-0 at home, BUF 0-0 away

Even

BUF offense vs WMU defense

Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: BUF plays 68.2 a game (219th fastest), WMU 69.3 (160th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

BUF has played the 198th-hardest schedule, WMU the 175th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BUF 8%, WMU 0%. Transfers in: BUF 7, WMU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WMU -4.9	—
Total	—	153.6	—
Projected score	—	BUF 74.4 · WMU 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WMU -2.8	—
1H total	71.8	—
1H projected score	BUF 34.5 · WMU 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLLLW	17-13	57%	10-4	—
WMU LWWLW	16-13	55%	8-5	—

Venue/role: BUF away; WMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOU	16-14	53%	15-15
WMU OOUOO	18-11	62%	9-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
WMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs M-OH	L71–73WU
Dec 12	vs PFW	No recent meeting

W Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BGSU	W88–79WO
Dec 9	@ MASS	L82–85WO
Dec 12	vs TOL	L79–90LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

BUF 5–3 WMUBUF leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BUF 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2025-26	BUF 88 @ WMU 71	WMU +2.5	BUF W
Feb 18, 2024-25	WMU 97 @ BUF 64	BUF +2.5	WMU W
Jan 18, 2024-25	BUF 85 @ WMU 76	WMU -8.5	BUF W
Feb 24, 2023-24	BUF 72 @ WMU 91	WMU -6.5	WMU W
Jan 6, 2023-24	WMU 82 @ BUF 77	BUF -2.5	WMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Buffalo

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W W W L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsSBU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 9	@UMBC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 14	@ECU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 20	@WMU	W 88-71	-2.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 31	@NIU	W 81-67	-6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	vsBALL	W 85-72	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 10	@OHIO	L 80-91	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	vsKENT	L 81-87	+2.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 168
Jan 17	@M-OH	L 102-105	+10.5	W +7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	vsAKR	L 63-82	+8.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 23	vsMASS	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 135
Jan 27	@BGSU	W 89-78	+7.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsOHIO	L 83-95	-2.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsM-OH	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@USA	L 69-81	+3.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Feb 11	@BALL	W 63-53	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 17	vsNIU	L 70-72	-9.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	@MASS	W 86-82	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Feb 24	@AKR	L 85-99	+15.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 184
Feb 28	vsCMU	L 70-75	-5.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsEMU	W 72-67	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 6	@TOL	L 78-99	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsAKR	L 70-73	+12.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

SBU

L 69-77

−2.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+0.5

ECU

L 70-73

−1.5

WMU

W 88-71

+14.5

NIU

W 81-67

+7.5

BALL

W 85-72

+6.5

OHIO

L 80-91

−6.5

KENT

L 81-87

−3.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+7.5

AKR

L 63-82

−10.5

MASS

L 67-68

−2.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+18.5

OHIO

L 83-95

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-73

+2.5

USA

L 69-81

−8.5

BALL

W 63-53

+11.5

NIU

L 70-72

−11.5

MASS

W 86-82

+11.5

AKR

L 85-99

+1.5

CMU

L 70-75

−10.5

EMU

W 72-67

−0.5

TOL

L 78-99

−15.5

AKR

L 70-73

+9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

SBU

L 69-77

+1.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+16.5

ECU

L 70-73

−3.5

WMU

W 88-71

+8.5

NIU

W 81-67

−4.5

BALL

W 85-72

+11.5

OHIO

L 80-91

+14.5

KENT

L 81-87

+2.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+44.5

AKR

L 63-82

−21.5

MASS

L 67-68

−24.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+16.5

OHIO

L 83-95

+21.5

M-OH

L 71-73

−21.5

USA

L 69-81

+4.5

BALL

W 63-53

−25.5

NIU

L 70-72

−3.5

MASS

W 86-82

+16.5

AKR

L 85-99

+23.5

CMU

L 70-75

−6.5

EMU

W 72-67

−4.5

TOL

L 78-99

+21.5

AKR

L 70-73

−15.5

over 16under 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

W Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

9-20

31% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-11

62% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2031%

W L W L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W W W L L W L W W L L W W W W W L W L L L L W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1162%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U U O O U O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@OSU	L 58-91	+26.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 23	vsMSM	W 83-60	-1.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 29	@VAL	L 55-84	+4.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsUSI	W 88-74	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 6	@SIUE	W 83-73	+5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 14	@IOWA	L 51-91	+25.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUF	L 71-88	+2.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 30	@TOL	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 6	@M-OH	L 76-87	+14.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsEMU	W 79-62	+1.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsMASS	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 17	@AKR	L 89-104	+21.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	vsBGSU	L 54-72	+6.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsCMU	W 77-65	-5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	@NIU	L 65-85	+1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 3	@OHIO	L 71-91	+10.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@TXST	L 61-77	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTOL	L 79-90	+6.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@EMU	W 76-62	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsAKR	L 73-90	+14.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 21	@CMU	L 70-83	+3.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@BGSU	W 88-79	+11.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 27	vsM-OH	L 67-69	+12.5	W +10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsBALL	L 71-74	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	@KENT	L 78-86	+13.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

OSU

L 58-91

−6.5

MSM

W 83-60

+21.5

VAL

L 55-84

−24.5

USI

W 88-74

+8.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+15.5

IOWA

L 51-91

−14.5

BUF

L 71-88

−14.5

TOL

L 79-84

+5.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+3.5

EMU

W 79-62

+18.5

MASS

L 82-85

+2.5

AKR

L 89-104

+6.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−11.5

CMU

W 77-65

+6.5

NIU

L 65-85

−18.5

OHIO

L 71-91

−9.5

TXST

L 61-77

−9.5

TOL

L 79-90

−4.5

EMU

W 76-62

+20.5

AKR

L 73-90

−2.5

CMU

L 70-83

−9.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+20.5

M-OH

L 67-69

+10.5

BALL

L 71-74

−4.5

KENT

L 78-86

+5.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

OSU

L 58-91

−10.5

MSM

W 83-60

−7.5

VAL

L 55-84

−7.5

USI

W 88-74

+11.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+16.5

IOWA

L 51-91

+4.5

BUF

L 71-88

+8.5

TOL

L 79-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+2.5

EMU

W 79-62

−4.5

MASS

L 82-85

+9.5

AKR

L 89-104

+29.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−26.5

CMU

W 77-65

−6.5

NIU

L 65-85

+3.5

OHIO

L 71-91

+6.5

TXST

L 61-77

−8.5

TOL

L 79-90

+14.5

EMU

W 76-62

−5.5

AKR

L 73-90

+2.5

CMU

L 70-83

+2.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+17.5

M-OH

L 67-69

−25.5

BALL

L 71-74

+6.5

KENT

L 78-86

+6.5

over 18under 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: Buffalo 1, W Michigan 3, even 1

BuffaloBetterW Michigan

G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39

Even

G T. Hayhurst TR10 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 41

G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15

WMUSmall

G M. Bendinger TR14.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 37

G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55

WMUSmall

G R. Lee TR15.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 79

F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

WMUBig

G J. Washington TR10 pts · 2.3 reb · 4 ast Score 73

F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75

BUFSmall

F I. Finlinson TR9.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 56

BuffaloBetterW Michigan

BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6

Even

WMU defense253rd of 366 · -6.6

BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7

WMUSmall

WMU offense137th of 366 · -4.0

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

WMUBig

Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

WMUSmall

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestBUF betterWMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Buffalo

Guards

D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR

Forwards

J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew

W Michigan

Guards

T. Hayhurst31 min · TRM. Bendinger31 min · TRR. Lee29 min · TRJ. Washington27 min · TRJ. Gomez23 min · TRA. Harakow19 min · TR

Forwards

I. Finlinson23 min · TRJ. Eli15 min · TRA. Kiudulas14 min · TRD. WatkinsNew

Centers

J. JünemannNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BUF77.5 #106

WMU73.9 #203

Points per possession

BUF1.14 #73

WMU1.06 #225

Pace (possessions)

BUF68.2 #219

WMU69.3 #160

Shooting

Effective FG%

BUF55.4 #30

WMU49.9 #241

3-point %

BUF37.9 #20

WMU35.3 #95

3-point attempt rate

BUF45.5 #57

WMU36.1 #248

Free throw rate

BUF39.6 #65

WMU32.8 #241

Possessions

Turnover rate

BUF16.2 #152

WMU16.8 #191

Offensive rebound rate

BUF27.1 #291

WMU30.5 #177

Assists per game

BUF14.1 #138

WMU12.4 #256

Defense

Points allowed

BUF77.0 #244

WMU80.1 #320

Points allowed per possession

BUF1.13 #279

WMU1.16 #336

Opponent effective FG%

BUF55.1 #333

WMU54.4 #310

Opponent 3-point %

BUF35.1 #252

WMU36.1 #307

Turnovers forced

BUF17.8 #105

WMU13.4 #346

Defensive rebound rate

BUF68.9 #209

WMU70.9 #110

Steals per game

BUF7.6 #72

WMU4.1 #362

Blocks per game

BUF2.8 #262

WMU2.5 #301

BUF		WMU
Scoring
77.5 #106	Points per game	73.9 #203
1.14 #73	Points per possession	1.06 #225
68.2 #219	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #160
Shooting
55.4 #30	Effective FG%	49.9 #241
37.9 #20	3-point %	35.3 #95
45.5 #57	3-point attempt rate	36.1 #248
39.6 #65	Free throw rate	32.8 #241
Possessions
16.2 #152	Turnover rate	16.8 #191
27.1 #291	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #177
14.1 #138	Assists per game	12.4 #256
Defense
77.0 #244	Points allowed	80.1 #320
1.13 #279	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #336
55.1 #333	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #310
35.1 #252	Opponent 3-point %	36.1 #307
17.8 #105	Turnovers forced	13.4 #346
68.9 #209	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #110
7.6 #72	Steals per game	4.1 #362
2.8 #262	Blocks per game	2.5 #301

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron70–73
L@ Toledo78–99
Wvs E Michigan72–67
Lvs C Michigan70–75
L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Kent State78–86
Lvs Ball State71–74
Lvs Miami OH67–69
W@ Bowling Green88–79
L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

Buffalo Bulls at Western Michigan Broncos

What could decide it: BUF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Buffalo

W Michigan

W Michigan has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Buffalo

W Michigan