Toledo Rockets at Ohio Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETConvocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game

#128OHIOOhio

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Toledo and Ohio
TOL	This season	OHIO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OHIO 83–79 · win probability OHIO 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 161.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

TOL 4, OHIO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TOLBig

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 32.5% and 38.1% of their shots

OHIOBig

OHIO offense vs TOL defense

Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLBig

TOL offense vs OHIO defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, OHIO 15.4%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, OHIO 16.2%

TOLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0

OHIOSmall

Home court

OHIO at home. This season: OHIO 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, OHIO 36.9. Allowed: TOL 26.6, OHIO 38.2

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), OHIO 71.0 (78th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, OHIO the 162nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, OHIO 41%. Transfers in: TOL 2, OHIO 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, OHIO 28.4%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, OHIO 67.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OHIO -4.6	—
Total	—	161.7	—
Projected score	—	TOL 78.6 · OHIO 83.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OHIO -2.6	—
1H total	75.5	—
1H projected score	TOL 36.5 · OHIO 39	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	—
OHIO WLLWL	12-18	40%	7-7	—

Venue/role: TOL away; OHIO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
OHIO UUOOU	15-15	50%	13-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
OHIO	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs KENT	L72–75LU
Dec 9	vs EMU	W94–75WO
Dec 12	@ WMU	W90–79WO

Ohio

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ CMU	W80–64WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

TOL 11–0 OHIOTOL leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 11 meetings · TOL 10-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 28, 2025-26	TOL 79 @ OHIO 67	OHIO -1.5	TOL W
Jan 13, 2025-26	OHIO 85 @ TOL 101	TOL -2.5	TOL W
Mar 13, 2024-25	OHIO 85 vs TOL 90	TOL +2.5	TOL W
Mar 7, 2024-25	OHIO 82 @ TOL 96	TOL +1.5	TOL W
Jan 28, 2024-25	TOL 86 @ OHIO 83	OHIO -3.5	TOL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L W L L L L L W W W L W W W W L L W L L W W L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W L W L L L W W W L W L L W L L L L L W W L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O U O U U O O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 15	@LOU	L 81-106	+31.5	W +6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 19	vsBCU	L 73-76	-6.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsGMU	L 69-92	+7.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsLMU	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsME	W 79-57	-12.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	vsMRSH	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsSBU	W 88-83	+6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsBGSU	L 58-68	+1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	@CMU	W 80-64	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	@EMU	W 68-67	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	vsMASS	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsBUF	W 91-80	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	@TOL	L 85-101	+2.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@BALL	L 71-76	-5.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	vsNIU	W 80-77	-11.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 23	vsAKR	L 65-86	+6.5	L −14.5	167.5	U 151
Jan 27	@KENT	L 57-72	+5.5	L −9.5	162.5	U 129
Jan 31	@BUF	W 95-83	+2.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsWMU	W 91-71	-10.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@ODU	L 72-78	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 13	@M-OH	L 74-90	+7.5	L −8.5	163.5	O 164
Feb 17	vsBALL	W 69-57	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 21	@NIU	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsTOL	L 67-79	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@MASS	L 82-94	+1.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 176
Mar 6	vsM-OH	L 108-110	+3.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 218
Mar 12	vsKENT	L 75-86	+3.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

LOU

L 81-106

+6.5

BCU

L 73-76

−9.5

GMU

L 69-92

−15.5

LMU

L 58-70

−8.5

W 79-57

+9.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+3.5

SBU

W 88-83

+11.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−8.5

CMU

W 80-64

+9.5

EMU

W 68-67

−1.5

MASS

W 86-83

−1.5

BUF

W 91-80

+6.5

TOL

L 85-101

−13.5

BALL

L 71-76

−10.5

NIU

W 80-77

−8.5

AKR

L 65-86

−14.5

KENT

L 57-72

−9.5

BUF

W 95-83

+14.5

WMU

W 91-71

+9.5

ODU

L 72-78

−9.5

M-OH

L 74-90

−8.5

BALL

W 69-57

+2.5

NIU

W 74-66

+1.5

TOL

L 67-79

−13.5

MASS

L 82-94

−10.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+1.5

KENT

L 75-86

−7.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

LOU

L 81-106

+12.5

BCU

L 73-76

−8.5

GMU

L 69-92

+18.5

LMU

L 58-70

−16.5

W 79-57

−2.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+11.5

SBU

W 88-83

+20.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−27.5

CMU

W 80-64

−7.5

EMU

W 68-67

−15.5

MASS

W 86-83

+8.5

BUF

W 91-80

+14.5

TOL

L 85-101

+24.5

BALL

L 71-76

−0.5

NIU

W 80-77

+2.5

AKR

L 65-86

−16.5

KENT

L 57-72

−33.5

BUF

W 95-83

+21.5

WMU

W 91-71

+6.5

ODU

L 72-78

−6.5

M-OH

L 74-90

+0.5

BALL

W 69-57

−19.5

NIU

W 74-66

−8.5

TOL

L 67-79

−12.5

MASS

L 82-94

+19.5

M-OH

L 108-110

+58.5

KENT

L 75-86

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio has the better starters

Position by position: Toledo 1, Ohio 2, even 2

ToledoBetterOhio

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

Even

G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

OHIOBig

G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

TOLSmall

G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

OHIOBig

F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

ToledoBetterOhio

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

TOLBig

OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

OHIOBig

OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

OHIOBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

OHIOBig

Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

OHIOSmall

Bench-0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestTOL betterOHIO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

Ohio

Guards

J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew

Forwards

J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew

Centers

M. IckeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

OHIO76.7 #126

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

OHIO1.08 #194

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

OHIO71.0 #78

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

OHIO51.0 #197

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

OHIO30.1 #341

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

OHIO38.1 #211

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

OHIO36.9 #132

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

OHIO15.4 #97

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

OHIO28.4 #248

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

OHIO12.6 #242

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

OHIO80.0 #319

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

OHIO1.13 #295

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

OHIO53.0 #269

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

OHIO36.8 #340

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

OHIO16.2 #213

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

OHIO67.2 #289

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

OHIO5.7 #267

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

OHIO3.4 #163

TOL		OHIO
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	76.7 #126
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.08 #194
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	71.0 #78
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	51.0 #197
37.0 #29	3-point %	30.1 #341
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #211
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	36.9 #132
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	15.4 #97
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	28.4 #248
15.6 #61	Assists per game	12.6 #242
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	80.0 #319
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #295
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #269
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #340
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	16.2 #213
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	67.2 #289
7.7 #67	Steals per game	5.7 #267
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	3.4 #163

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kent State75–86
Lvs Miami OH108–110
L@ UMass82–94
Lvs Toledo67–79
W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.

Toledo Rockets at Ohio Bobcats

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

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ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

Ohio

Ohio has the better starters

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Toledo

Ohio