1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. BGSU @ KENT
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes

M.A.C. Center · at Kent State · Conference game
#200BGSUBowling Green
@
#151KENTKent State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BGSUThis seasonKENT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENT 79–74 · win probability KENT 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

BGSU 1, KENT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BGSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BGSU 16.4%, KENT 17.9%. Forced: BGSU 18.5%, KENT 16.1%
KENTSmall
KENT offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 128th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
KENTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BGSU 28.7%, KENT 35.3%. Defensive: BGSU 73.1%, KENT 70.7%
KENTSmall
Home court
KENT at home. This season: KENT 0-0 at home, BGSU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: BGSU plays 70.5 a game (96th fastest), KENT 73.3 (17th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0; KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BGSU 37.0, KENT 43.5. Allowed: BGSU 37.2, KENT 39.5
Even
Three-pointers
BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%; KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 34.2% and 44.9% of their shots
Even
BGSU offense vs KENT defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BGSU has played the 192nd-hardest schedule, KENT the 179th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BGSU 24%, KENT 19%. Transfers in: BGSU 4, KENT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KENT -5.3—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—BGSU 73.8 · KENT 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKENT -3.0—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreBGSU 34.2 · KENT 37.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bowling Green 0, Kent State 0, even 5
Bowling GreenBetterKent State
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
Even
G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
No call
G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
Even
G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57
Bowling GreenBetterKent State
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
Even
KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
KENTSmall
KENT offense128th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
KENTSmall
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
KENTSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBGSU betterKENT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
Kent State
Guards
C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew
Forwards
C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BGSUKENT
Scoring
76.8 #124Points per game82.3 #31
1.08 #177Points per possession1.12 #102
70.5 #96Pace (possessions)73.3 #17
Shooting
51.8 #153Effective FG%51.4 #175
34.4 #1483-point %35.0 #118
34.2 #2893-point attempt rate44.9 #69
37.0 #129Free throw rate43.5 #15
Possessions
16.4 #164Turnover rate17.9 #268
28.7 #244Offensive rebound rate35.3 #39
13.1 #203Assists per game15.1 #81
Defense
72.7 #127Points allowed80.6 #328
1.04 #71Points allowed per possession1.10 #221
51.0 #163Opponent effective FG%52.1 #219
33.5 #161Opponent 3-point %35.0 #246
18.5 #73Turnovers forced16.1 #219
73.1 #31Defensive rebound rate70.7 #124
8.2 #30Steals per game6.5 #174
3.5 #138Blocks per game3.3 #184
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Illinois St58–79
  • Lvs Akron68–75
  • Wvs Ohio86–75
  • Wvs W Michigan86–78
  • W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.