1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. UNT vs BOIS
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

North Texas Mean Green vs Boise State Broncos

Mountain America Center · Neutral site
#112UNTNorth Texas
vs
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNTThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 74–69 · win probability BOIS 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

UNT 1, BOIS 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNT 16.8%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: UNT 21.3%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNT 39.6, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: UNT 45.1, BOIS 32.1
BOISBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNT 33.5%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: UNT 67.6%, BOIS 76.4%
BOISSmall
UNT offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNT has played the 121st-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BOIS offense vs UNT defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNT 45%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: UNT 3, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UNT plays 67.6 a game (245th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 32.4% and 43.1% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -5.6—
Total—142.6—
Projected score—UNT 68.5 · BOIS 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -3.2—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreUNT 31.8 · BOIS 35—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: North Texas 1, Boise St 2, even 2
North TexasBetterBoise St
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
UNTSmall
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
BOISSmall
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
BOISSmall
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
Even
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
Even
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
North TexasBetterBoise St
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
BOISSmall
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
Even
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
UNTSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
UNTSmall
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNT betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNTBOIS
Scoring
69.1 #298Points per game77.4 #108
1.02 #302Points per possession1.13 #82
67.6 #245Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
46.0 #349Effective FG%52.2 #138
28.7 #3583-point %34.3 #151
32.4 #3253-point attempt rate43.1 #114
39.6 #63Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
16.8 #182Turnover rate16.9 #195
33.5 #76Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
12.1 #282Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
68.2 #35Points allowed73.2 #137
1.01 #33Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
48.5 #47Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
30.9 #32Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
21.3 #6Turnovers forced14.6 #317
67.6 #278Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
8.9 #11Steals per game4.6 #350
4.3 #51Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.