Brown Bears at Air Force Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETClune Arena · at Air Force

#156BRWNBrown

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Brown and Air Force
BRWN	This season	AF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AF 69–69 · win probability AF 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

BRWN 5, AF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRWNBig

AF offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

BRWNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRWN 19.4%, AF 21.9%. Forced: BRWN 18.8%, AF 15.1%

AFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRWN 28.1, AF 35.1. Allowed: BRWN 37.6, AF 36.6

BRWNSmall

Three-pointers

BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%; AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 36.3% and 41.8% of their shots

BRWNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRWN 29.0%, AF 21.4%. Defensive: BRWN 70.0%, AF 68.7%

BRWNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3; AF 48.9 and allows 56.4

AFSmall

BRWN offense vs AF defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BRWN has played the 176th-hardest schedule, AF the 119th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AFSmall

Home court

AF at home. This season: AF 0-0 at home, BRWN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: BRWN plays 68.0 a game (229th fastest), AF 67.4 (259th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRWN 100%, AF 100%. Transfers in: BRWN 0, AF 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AF -0.4	—
Total	—	137.7	—
Projected score	—	BRWN 68.7 · AF 69

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AF -0.1	—
1H total	64.5	—
1H projected score	BRWN 32.2 · AF 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	8-5	—
AF WWLWL	10-22	31%	5-13	—

Venue/role: BRWN away; AF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18
AF OUOUU	18-14	56%	3-29

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
AF	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ URI	L56–66WU
Dec 4	@ BRY	W75–56WO
Dec 6	vs CCSU	W59–51WU

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs DEN	W66–65LO
Dec 6	vs NAVY	L56–61WU
Dec 10	@ APSU	L54–74LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Air Force

32 games played

Straight up

3-29

9% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-299%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

25 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L W L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U O U U O O U U O U O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 19	vsALST	W 66-64	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsSIUE	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsIUIN	W 98-85	-3.5	W +9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsUNCO	L 53-71	+4.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 124
Nov 29	vsSDAK	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsPAC	L 65-80	+5.5	L −9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 7	@NAVY	L 56-61	+9.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 17	@SDSU	L 58-81	+24.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 30	vsWYO	L 56-68	+14.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 124
Jan 3	@UNLV	L 39-67	+14.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	vsUSU	L 62-99	+22.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUNM	L 49-91	+16.5	L −25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	@SJSU	L 62-70	+5.5	L −2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsNEV	L 66-81	+14.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 20	@CSU	L 52-81	+19.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 24	@BOIS	L 54-96	+23.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsFRES	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	@GCU	L 57-81	+26.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 138
Feb 7	vsSDSU	L 54-88	+22.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 10	vsCSU	L 74-91	+16.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	@FRES	L 63-93	+14.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@UNM	L 61-98	+28.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	vsUNLV	L 66-91	+16.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsSJSU	L 80-86	+6.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	@WYO	L 62-66	+20.5	W +16.5	145.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsGCU	L 60-86	+19.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 146
Mar 7	@NEV	L 59-74	+24.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsNEV	L 45-80	+19.5	L −15.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

ALST

W 66-64

−0.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+16.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+9.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−13.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−13.5

PAC

L 65-80

−9.5

NAVY

L 56-61

+4.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+1.5

WYO

L 56-68

+2.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−13.5

USU

L 62-99

−14.5

UNM

L 49-91

−25.5

SJSU

L 62-70

−2.5

NEV

L 66-81

−0.5

CSU

L 52-81

−9.5

BOIS

L 54-96

−18.5

FRES

L 62-79

−7.5

GCU

L 57-81

+2.5

SDSU

L 54-88

−11.5

CSU

L 74-91

−0.5

FRES

L 63-93

−15.5

UNM

L 61-98

−8.5

UNLV

L 66-91

−8.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+0.5

WYO

L 62-66

+16.5

GCU

L 60-86

−6.5

NEV

L 59-74

+9.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

ALST

W 66-64

−8.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+9.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+7.5

UNCO

L 53-71

−22.5

SDAK

L 63-80

−4.5

PAC

L 65-80

+10.5

NAVY

L 56-61

−16.5

SDSU

L 58-81

+3.5

WYO

L 56-68

−22.5

UNLV

L 39-67

−36.5

USU

L 62-99

+21.5

UNM

L 49-91

+1.5

SJSU

L 62-70

+3.5

NEV

L 66-81

+12.5

CSU

L 52-81

−0.5

BOIS

L 54-96

+12.5

FRES

L 62-79

−0.5

GCU

L 57-81

+0.5

SDSU

L 54-88

+2.5

CSU

L 74-91

+27.5

FRES

L 63-93

+13.5

UNM

L 61-98

+10.5

UNLV

L 66-91

+3.5

SJSU

L 80-86

+20.5

WYO

L 62-66

−17.5

GCU

L 60-86

+2.5

NEV

L 59-74

−11.5

NEV

L 45-80

−15.5

over 18under 14avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Air Force has the better starters

Position by position: Brown 0, Air Force 1, even 4

BrownBetterAir Force

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

AFSmall

G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

Even

G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

Even

F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

Even

F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

Even

F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82

BrownBetterAir Force

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

AFSmall

AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

BRWNBig

AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

AFBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

BRWNSmall

Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

BRWNBig

Bench-7.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBRWN betterAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

Air Force

Guards

K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew

Forwards

L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min

Centers

W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRWN67.2 #330

AF61.5 #362

Points per possession

BRWN0.98 #338

AF0.91 #363

Pace (possessions)

BRWN68.0 #229

AF67.4 #259

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRWN48.6 #299

AF48.9 #292

3-point %

BRWN30.3 #338

AF30.6 #332

3-point attempt rate

BRWN36.3 #244

AF41.8 #139

Free throw rate

BRWN28.1 #342

AF35.1 #174

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRWN19.4 #334

AF21.9 #362

Offensive rebound rate

BRWN29.0 #236

AF21.4 #360

Assists per game

BRWN14.8 #99

AF12.2 #273

Defense

Points allowed

BRWN72.4 #115

AF79.9 #316

Points allowed per possession

BRWN1.07 #134

AF1.19 #352

Opponent effective FG%

BRWN51.3 #176

AF56.4 #350

Opponent 3-point %

BRWN33.5 #157

AF37.6 #352

Turnovers forced

BRWN18.8 #57

AF15.1 #280

Defensive rebound rate

BRWN70.0 #164

AF68.7 #215

Steals per game

BRWN7.5 #82

AF5.6 #281

Blocks per game

BRWN3.8 #104

AF2.4 #316

BRWN		AF
Scoring
67.2 #330	Points per game	61.5 #362
0.98 #338	Points per possession	0.91 #363
68.0 #229	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #259
Shooting
48.6 #299	Effective FG%	48.9 #292
30.3 #338	3-point %	30.6 #332
36.3 #244	3-point attempt rate	41.8 #139
28.1 #342	Free throw rate	35.1 #174
Possessions
19.4 #334	Turnover rate	21.9 #362
29.0 #236	Offensive rebound rate	21.4 #360
14.8 #99	Assists per game	12.2 #273
Defense
72.4 #115	Points allowed	79.9 #316
1.07 #134	Points allowed per possession	1.19 #352
51.3 #176	Opponent effective FG%	56.4 #350
33.5 #157	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #352
18.8 #57	Turnovers forced	15.1 #280
70.0 #164	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #215
7.5 #82	Steals per game	5.6 #281
3.8 #104	Blocks per game	2.4 #316

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nevada45–80
L@ Nevada59–74
Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
L@ Wyoming62–66
Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.

Brown Bears at Air Force Falcons

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Brown

Air Force

Air Force has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Brown

Air Force