Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Missouri and Kansas City
SEMO	This season	KC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SEMO 74–72 · win probability SEMO 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SEMO has more of the edges

SEMO 5, KC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SEMOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8; KC 45.8 and allows 56.3

SEMOBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEMO 29.6%, KC 26.4%. Defensive: SEMO 71.8%, KC 64.1%

SEMOBig

Three-pointers

SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%; KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 36.0% and 36.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

SEMO has played the 351st-hardest schedule, KC the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SEMOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEMO 16.8%, KC 18.2%. Forced: SEMO 18.1%, KC 16.4%

KCSmall

Home court

KC at home. This season: KC 0-0 at home, SEMO 0-0 away

SEMOSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEMO 26%, KC 0%. Transfers in: SEMO 1, KC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

KC offense vs SEMO defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SEMO plays 70.2 a game (109th fastest), KC 71.8 (45th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SEMO offense vs KC defense

Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEMO 38.8, KC 29.2. Allowed: SEMO 48.0, KC 31.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SEMO -1.8	—
Total	—	145.4	—
Projected score	—	SEMO 73.6 · KC 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEMO -1.2	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	SEMO 34.6 · KC 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEMO WLWLL	14-16	47%	8-7	—
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	1-10	—

Venue/role: SEMO away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO UUOUU	13-17	43%	17-13
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ WICH	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ SLU	L67–92LO
Dec 9	@ SIU	L68–70WO

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs DUQ	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs DEN	L61–69LU
Dec 9	vs EIU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SEMO 1–1 KCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SEMO 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	KC 59 @ SEMO 80	SEMO +2.5	SEMO W
Nov 30, 2023-24	SEMO 44 @ KC 74	KC -7.5	KC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O O O U U O U O O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 6	@UTC	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 144
Dec 18	@TNTC	L 74-85	-2.5	L −13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	@TNST	W 91-82	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsEIU	W 68-59	-12.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsWIU	W 73-50	-13.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	@USI	W 84-76	-7.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@MORE	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 15	vsLIN	L 76-88	-6.5	L −18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsSIUE	L 55-68	-9.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsUTM	W 66-50	-2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 22	vsLR	W 70-65	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@WIU	W 78-74	-10.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	@EIU	W 77-59	-4.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	vsMORE	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 7	vsUSI	W 90-65	-11.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	@SIUE	L 56-74	-1.5	L −19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	@LIN	W 73-61	+1.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 17	@UTM	W 56-53	+2.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 21	@LR	W 70-65	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsTNST	L 71-79	-2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsTNTC	W 89-73	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsLIN	W 68-66	-3.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 6	vsMORE	L 61-66	-3.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

UTC

W 74-70

+7.5

TNTC

L 74-85

−13.5

TNST

W 91-82

+7.5

EIU

W 68-59

−3.5

WIU

W 73-50

+9.5

USI

W 84-76

+0.5

L 69-71

−7.5

LIN

L 76-88

−18.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−22.5

UTM

W 66-50

+13.5

W 70-65

−0.5

WIU

W 78-74

−6.5

EIU

W 77-59

+13.5

W 82-70

+4.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−19.5

LIN

W 73-61

+13.5

UTM

W 56-53

+5.5

W 70-65

+3.5

TNST

L 71-79

−10.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+8.5

LIN

W 68-66

−1.5

L 61-66

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

UTC

W 74-70

−5.5

TNTC

L 74-85

+3.5

TNST

W 91-82

+21.5

EIU

W 68-59

−19.5

WIU

W 73-50

−24.5

USI

W 84-76

+13.5

L 69-71

−4.5

LIN

L 76-88

+9.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−16.5

UTM

W 66-50

−24.5

W 70-65

−10.5

WIU

W 78-74

+9.5

EIU

W 77-59

−2.5

W 82-70

+7.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−7.5

LIN

W 73-61

−20.5

UTM

W 56-53

−29.5

W 70-65

−8.5

TNST

L 71-79

−1.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+20.5

LIN

W 68-66

−14.5

L 61-66

−12.5

over 13under 17avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: SE Missouri 1, Kansas City 1, even 3

SE MissouriBetterKansas City

G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69

SEMOSmall

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33

Even

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11

KCSmall

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

No call

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

SE MissouriBetterKansas City

SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0

Even

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1

Even

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

SEMOSmall

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players

SEMOSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestSEMO betterKC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Missouri

Guards

M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew

Forwards

D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEMO73.2 #217

KC67.0 #334

Points per possession

SEMO1.04 #267

KC0.93 #361

Pace (possessions)

SEMO70.2 #109

KC71.8 #45

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEMO49.8 #244

KC45.8 #352

3-point %

SEMO30.9 #324

KC28.4 #360

3-point attempt rate

SEMO36.0 #250

KC36.8 #235

Free throw rate

SEMO38.8 #84

KC29.2 #330

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEMO16.8 #192

KC18.2 #282

Offensive rebound rate

SEMO29.6 #218

KC26.4 #314

Assists per game

SEMO11.7 #306

KC11.3 #324

Defense

Points allowed

SEMO72.3 #112

KC84.8 #359

Points allowed per possession

SEMO1.03 #58

KC1.18 #348

Opponent effective FG%

SEMO48.8 #57

KC56.3 #348

Opponent 3-point %

SEMO33.1 #130

KC37.5 #350

Turnovers forced

SEMO18.1 #91

KC16.4 #193

Defensive rebound rate

SEMO71.8 #76

KC64.1 #353

Steals per game

SEMO6.4 #190

KC6.4 #192

Blocks per game

SEMO3.6 #121

KC3.1 #195

SEMO		KC
Scoring
73.2 #217	Points per game	67.0 #334
1.04 #267	Points per possession	0.93 #361
70.2 #109	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #45
Shooting
49.8 #244	Effective FG%	45.8 #352
30.9 #324	3-point %	28.4 #360
36.0 #250	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #235
38.8 #84	Free throw rate	29.2 #330
Possessions
16.8 #192	Turnover rate	18.2 #282
29.6 #218	Offensive rebound rate	26.4 #314
11.7 #306	Assists per game	11.3 #324
Defense
72.3 #112	Points allowed	84.8 #359
1.03 #58	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #348
48.8 #57	Opponent effective FG%	56.3 #348
33.1 #130	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #350
18.1 #91	Turnovers forced	16.4 #193
71.8 #76	Defensive rebound rate	64.1 #353
6.4 #190	Steals per game	6.4 #192
3.6 #121	Blocks per game	3.1 #195

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morehead St61–66
Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
Lvs Tennessee St71–79
W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Kansas City Roos

What could decide it: SEMO has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

Kansas City

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Missouri

Kansas City