1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. RGV @ UNLV
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UNLV Rebels

Thomas & Mack Center · at UNLV
#287RGVUT Rio Grande
@
#98UNLVUNLV
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RGVThis seasonUNLV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 83–67 · win probability UNLV 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNLV has more of the edges

RGV 2, UNLV 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, UNLV the 87th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNLVBig
RGV offense vs UNLV defense
Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings
UNLVBig
UNLV offense vs RGV defense
Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings
RGVBig
Three-pointers
RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.7% and 36.4% of their shots
RGVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3
UNLVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, UNLV 40.6. Allowed: RGV 39.0, UNLV 44.9
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), UNLV 71.3 (57th). Faster games mean more points
UNLVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, UNLV 17.1%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, UNLV 17.4%
UNLVSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, UNLV 43%. Transfers in: RGV 3, UNLV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNLVSmall
Home court
UNLV at home. This season: UNLV 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, UNLV 30.2%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, UNLV 68.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNLV -16.0—
Total—149.8—
Projected score—RGV 66.9 · UNLV 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNLV -9.4—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreRGV 30.3 · UNLV 39.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UNLV has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 1, UNLV 2, even 2
UT Rio GrandeBetterUNLV
G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41
UNLVSmall
G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64
G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2
UNLVBig
G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97
G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75
RGVBig
G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91
G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
UT Rio GrandeBetterUNLV
RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2
UNLVBig
UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5
RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8
UNLVBig
UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2
Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players
UNLVBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRGV betterUNLV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Rio Grande
Guards
D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew
Forwards
T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew
UNLV
Guards
D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min
Forwards
T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew
Centers
J. Foumena10 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RGVUNLV
Scoring
73.7 #210Points per game78.6 #88
1.10 #137Points per possession1.10 #134
67.3 #268Pace (possessions)71.3 #57
Shooting
54.8 #44Effective FG%53.5 #81
36.8 #353-point %35.2 #102
43.7 #953-point attempt rate36.4 #243
28.9 #332Free throw rate40.6 #51
Possessions
18.5 #296Turnover rate17.1 #209
28.2 #257Offensive rebound rate30.2 #189
15.7 #58Assists per game14.1 #137
Defense
70.6 #67Points allowed79.3 #306
1.05 #86Points allowed per possession1.11 #250
47.8 #38Opponent effective FG%52.3 #231
30.4 #16Opponent 3-point %35.2 #259
16.2 #210Turnovers forced17.4 #127
67.9 #266Defensive rebound rate68.0 #256
5.9 #243Steals per game7.3 #102
2.8 #266Blocks per game4.7 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs McNeese80–84
  • Wvs Nicholls86–68
  • Wvs N'Western St74–62
  • Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
  • L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Tulsa66–77
  • W@ UC Irvine75–72
  • Lvs Utah State60–80
  • Wvs Wyoming73–70
  • L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.