UNLV Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 4:30 PM ETViejas Arena · at San Diego St

#98UNLVUNLV

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNLV and San Diego St
UNLV	This season	SDSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDSU 79–73 · win probability SDSU 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

UNLV 0, SDSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SDSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3; SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2

SDSUSmall

Home court

SDSU at home. This season: SDSU 0-0 at home, UNLV 0-0 away

SDSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNLV 17.1%, SDSU 17.2%. Forced: UNLV 17.4%, SDSU 20.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNLV 43%, SDSU 20%. Transfers in: UNLV 7, SDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SDSU offense vs UNLV defense

Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%; SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 36.4% and 33.8% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNLV 40.6, SDSU 39.0. Allowed: UNLV 44.9, SDSU 38.5

Even

UNLV offense vs SDSU defense

Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: UNLV plays 71.3 a game (57th fastest), SDSU 70.6 (89th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNLV 30.2%, SDSU 29.5%. Defensive: UNLV 68.0%, SDSU 68.9%

Context

Schedule so far

UNLV has played the 87th-hardest schedule, SDSU the 80th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDSU -5.9	—
Total	—	152.4	—
Projected score	—	UNLV 73.2 · SDSU 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDSU -3.4	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	UNLV 33.9 · SDSU 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWLWL	17-17	50%	8-6	—
SDSU LLWLL	15-17	47%	7-8	—

Venue/role: UNLV away; SDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUUU	20-14	59%	17-17
SDSU OOUUU	15-17	47%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SDSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNLV

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs WSU	W74–70WO

San Diego St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	vs MTST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

UNLV 3–8 SDSUSDSU leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · SDSU has won the last 2 meetings · UNLV 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	UNLV 86 @ SDSU 89	SDSU -9.5	UNLV W
Jan 24, 2025-26	SDSU 82 @ UNLV 71	UNLV +3.5	SDSU W
Mar 4, 2024-25	SDSU 67 @ UNLV 74	UNLV +3.5	UNLV W
Jan 18, 2024-25	UNLV 76 @ SDSU 68	SDSU -10.5	UNLV W
Mar 14, 2023-24	SDSU 74 @ UNLV 71	UNLV +4.5	UNLV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNLV

34 games played

Straight up

17-17

50% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-14

59% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1459%

O O O O O U O U U U U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsALA	L 76-115	+13.5	L −25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 27	vsRUTG	L 65-80	-4.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 7	@STAN	W 75-74	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsTNST	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsFRES	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 156
Jan 3	vsAF	W 67-39	-14.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	@WYO	L 66-98	+4.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 9	@CSU	L 62-70	+6.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsBOIS	W 89-85	+1.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 17	@SJSU	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@USU	W 86-76	+15.5	W +25.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsSDSU	L 71-82	+3.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsUNM	L 61-89	+3.5	L −24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 30	@NEV	L 76-89	+7.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@FRES	L 96-98	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	vsGCU	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 10	vsSJSU	W 82-75	-12.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 13	@BOIS	W 86-83	+10.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 169
Feb 18	vsCSU	L 86-91	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	@AF	W 91-66	-16.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 25	@GCU	L 67-80	+7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 147
Feb 28	vsNEV	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsUSU	W 92-65	+7.5	W +34.5	156.5	O 157
Mar 6	@SDSU	L 86-89	+9.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 11	vsWYO	W 73-70	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsUSU	L 60-80	+8.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 140
Mar 17	@UCI	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 147
Mar 22	@TLSA	L 66-77	+4.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

ALA

L 76-115

−25.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−19.5

STAN

W 75-74

+10.5

TNST

L 60-63

−15.5

FRES

W 84-72

+3.5

W 67-39

+13.5

WYO

L 66-98

−27.5

CSU

L 62-70

−1.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+5.5

SJSU

W 76-62

+6.5

USU

W 86-76

+25.5

SDSU

L 71-82

−7.5

UNM

L 61-89

−24.5

NEV

L 76-89

−5.5

FRES

L 96-98

−3.5

GCU

W 80-78

+4.5

SJSU

W 82-75

−5.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+13.5

CSU

L 86-91

−7.5

W 91-66

+8.5

GCU

L 67-80

−5.5

NEV

W 85-83

+3.5

USU

W 92-65

+34.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+6.5

WYO

W 73-70

+0.5

USU

L 60-80

−11.5

UCI

W 75-72

+1.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

ALA

L 76-115

+9.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−8.5

STAN

W 75-74

−15.5

TNST

L 60-63

−38.5

FRES

W 84-72

−3.5

W 67-39

−36.5

WYO

L 66-98

+9.5

CSU

L 62-70

−19.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+23.5

SJSU

W 76-62

−8.5

USU

W 86-76

+5.5

SDSU

L 71-82

+3.5

UNM

L 61-89

−5.5

NEV

L 76-89

+17.5

FRES

L 96-98

+40.5

GCU

W 80-78

+9.5

SJSU

W 82-75

+7.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+15.5

CSU

L 86-91

+29.5

W 91-66

+3.5

GCU

L 67-80

−3.5

NEV

W 85-83

+17.5

USU

W 92-65

+0.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+21.5

WYO

W 73-70

−10.5

USU

L 60-80

−16.5

UCI

W 75-72

−6.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−18.5

over 20under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W L L W L W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W L L W W W L W W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U U O U O O U O O U O O U U U O U O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 10	vsLAM	W 89-71	-17.5	W +0.5	135.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsAF	W 81-58	-24.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 139
Dec 20	vsARIZ	L 45-68	+13.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 30	@SJSU	W 81-68	-11.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsBOIS	W 110-107	-4.5	L −1.5	138.5	O 217
Jan 6	@NEV	W 73-68	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsFRES	W 71-52	-14.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 14	@WYO	W 74-57	-1.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	vsUNM	W 83-79	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	@GCU	L 69-70	-1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 139
Jan 24	@UNLV	W 82-71	-3.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 28	vsCSU	W 73-50	-9.5	W +13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@USU	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsWYO	W 72-63	-12.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 7	@AF	W 88-54	-22.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNEV	W 71-57	-7.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 128
Feb 17	vsGCU	L 63-73	-7.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 21	@CSU	L 74-83	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 25	vsUSU	W 89-72	+1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 28	@UNM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 3	@BOIS	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 163
Mar 6	vsUNLV	W 89-86	-9.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 12	vsCSU	W 71-62	-6.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 13	vsUNM	W 64-62	-2.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 14	vsUSU	L 62-73	+2.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

LAM

W 89-71

+0.5

W 81-58

−1.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+1.5

BOIS

W 110-107

−1.5

NEV

W 73-68

+6.5

FRES

W 71-52

+4.5

WYO

W 74-57

+15.5

UNM

W 83-79

−1.5

GCU

L 69-70

−2.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+7.5

CSU

W 73-50

+13.5

USU

L 66-71

+1.5

WYO

W 72-63

−3.5

W 88-54

+11.5

NEV

W 71-57

+6.5

GCU

L 63-73

−17.5

CSU

L 74-83

−12.5

USU

W 89-72

+18.5

UNM

L 76-81

−3.5

BOIS

L 77-86

−7.5

UNLV

W 89-86

−6.5

CSU

W 71-62

+2.5

UNM

W 64-62

−0.5

USU

L 62-73

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

LAM

W 89-71

+24.5

W 81-58

+3.5

ARIZ

L 45-68

−40.5

SJSU

W 81-68

+7.5

BOIS

W 110-107

+78.5

NEV

W 73-68

−0.5

FRES

W 71-52

−23.5

WYO

W 74-57

−17.5

UNM

W 83-79

+13.5

GCU

L 69-70

−6.5

UNLV

W 82-71

+3.5

CSU

W 73-50

−16.5

USU

L 66-71

−10.5

WYO

W 72-63

−6.5

W 88-54

+2.5

NEV

W 71-57

−11.5

GCU

L 63-73

−3.5

CSU

L 74-83

+17.5

USU

W 89-72

+14.5

UNM

L 76-81

+6.5

BOIS

L 77-86

+19.5

UNLV

W 89-86

+21.5

CSU

W 71-62

−9.5

UNM

W 64-62

−24.5

USU

L 62-73

−10.5

over 15under 17avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UNLV 1, San Diego St 1, even 3

UNLVBetterSan Diego St

G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64

Even

G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67

G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

Even

G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95

G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

SDSUSmall

G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57

F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91

UNLVSmall

G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63

F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

No call

F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

UNLVBetterSan Diego St

UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2

Even

SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8

UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5

Even

SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3

Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players

SDSUSmall

Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players

UNLVBig

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

SDSUSmall

Bench+0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUNLV betterSDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNLV

Guards

D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min

Forwards

T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew

Centers

J. Foumena10 min · TR

San Diego St

Guards

C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew

Forwards

B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNLV78.6 #88

SDSU76.8 #120

Points per possession

UNLV1.10 #134

SDSU1.09 #159

Pace (possessions)

UNLV71.3 #57

SDSU70.6 #89

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNLV53.5 #81

SDSU52.7 #116

3-point %

UNLV35.2 #102

SDSU34.5 #144

3-point attempt rate

UNLV36.4 #243

SDSU33.8 #301

Free throw rate

UNLV40.6 #51

SDSU39.0 #81

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNLV17.1 #209

SDSU17.2 #224

Offensive rebound rate

UNLV30.2 #189

SDSU29.5 #222

Assists per game

UNLV14.1 #137

SDSU14.6 #110

Defense

Points allowed

UNLV79.3 #306

SDSU71.3 #84

Points allowed per possession

UNLV1.11 #250

SDSU1.01 #31

Opponent effective FG%

UNLV52.3 #231

SDSU48.2 #41

Opponent 3-point %

UNLV35.2 #259

SDSU33.6 #164

Turnovers forced

UNLV17.4 #127

SDSU20.2 #19

Defensive rebound rate

UNLV68.0 #256

SDSU68.9 #208

Steals per game

UNLV7.3 #102

SDSU7.7 #62

Blocks per game

UNLV4.7 #26

SDSU4.6 #27

UNLV		SDSU
Scoring
78.6 #88	Points per game	76.8 #120
1.10 #134	Points per possession	1.09 #159
71.3 #57	Pace (possessions)	70.6 #89
Shooting
53.5 #81	Effective FG%	52.7 #116
35.2 #102	3-point %	34.5 #144
36.4 #243	3-point attempt rate	33.8 #301
40.6 #51	Free throw rate	39.0 #81
Possessions
17.1 #209	Turnover rate	17.2 #224
30.2 #189	Offensive rebound rate	29.5 #222
14.1 #137	Assists per game	14.6 #110
Defense
79.3 #306	Points allowed	71.3 #84
1.11 #250	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #31
52.3 #231	Opponent effective FG%	48.2 #41
35.2 #259	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #164
17.4 #127	Turnovers forced	20.2 #19
68.0 #256	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #208
7.3 #102	Steals per game	7.7 #62
4.7 #26	Blocks per game	4.6 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa66–77
W@ UC Irvine75–72
Lvs Utah State60–80
Wvs Wyoming73–70
L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State62–73
Wvs New Mexico64–62
Wvs Colorado St71–62
Wvs UNLV89–86
L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.

UNLV Rebels at San Diego State Aztecs

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNLV

San Diego St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNLV

San Diego St