UNLV Rebels at San Francisco Dons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 10:00 PM ETThe Sobrato Center · at San Francisco

#98UNLVUNLV

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNLV and San Francisco
UNLV	This season	SF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNLV 78–73 · win probability UNLV 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNLV has more of the edges

UNLV 4, SF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNLV 40.6, SF 40.1. Allowed: UNLV 44.9, SF 29.6

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UNLV plays 71.3 a game (57th fastest), SF 67.3 (271st). Faster games mean more points

SFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNLV 30.2%, SF 31.4%. Defensive: UNLV 68.0%, SF 71.0%

UNLVSmall

UNLV offense vs SF defense

Offense 90th of 366 against a defense 165th, on the model’s ratings

UNLVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNLV 43%, SF 3%. Transfers in: UNLV 7, SF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNLVSmall

SF offense vs UNLV defense

Offense 178th of 366 against a defense 114th, on the model’s ratings

UNLVSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNLV 17.1%, SF 15.9%. Forced: UNLV 17.4%, SF 14.1%

SFSmall

Home court

SF at home. This season: SF 0-0 at home, UNLV 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

UNLV hits 35.2% and allows 35.2%; SF hits 34.6% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.4% and 46.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UNLV has played the 87th-hardest schedule, SF the 98th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNLV 53.5 and allows 52.3; SF 51.3 and allows 50.8

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNLV -5.4	—
Total	—	150.8	—
Projected score	—	UNLV 78.1 · SF 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNLV -3.4	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	UNLV 36.9 · SF 33.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWLWL	17-17	50%	8-6	—
SF LLWWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—

Venue/role: UNLV away; SF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUUU	20-14	59%	17-17
SF UOUOO	17-15	53%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNLV

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ SDSU	L86–89WO
Dec 12	vs WSU	W74–70WO

San Francisco

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs SDAK	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ FRES	W77–57WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNLV 0–2 SFSF leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · SF has won the last 2 meetings · UNLV 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2022-23	SF 75 @ UNLV 73	UNLV -6.5	SF W
Dec 4, 2021-22	UNLV 62 @ SF 83	SF -10	SF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNLV

34 games played

Straight up

17-17

50% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-14

59% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W W W L W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

L W L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1459%

O O O O O U O U U U U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsALA	L 76-115	+13.5	L −25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 27	vsRUTG	L 65-80	-4.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 7	@STAN	W 75-74	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsTNST	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsFRES	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	159.5	U 156
Jan 3	vsAF	W 67-39	-14.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 106
Jan 6	@WYO	L 66-98	+4.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 9	@CSU	L 62-70	+6.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsBOIS	W 89-85	+1.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 17	@SJSU	W 76-62	-7.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@USU	W 86-76	+15.5	W +25.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsSDSU	L 71-82	+3.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsUNM	L 61-89	+3.5	L −24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 30	@NEV	L 76-89	+7.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 3	@FRES	L 96-98	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	vsGCU	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 10	vsSJSU	W 82-75	-12.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 13	@BOIS	W 86-83	+10.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 169
Feb 18	vsCSU	L 86-91	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	@AF	W 91-66	-16.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 157
Feb 25	@GCU	L 67-80	+7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 147
Feb 28	vsNEV	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsUSU	W 92-65	+7.5	W +34.5	156.5	O 157
Mar 6	@SDSU	L 86-89	+9.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 175
Mar 11	vsWYO	W 73-70	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsUSU	L 60-80	+8.5	L −11.5	156.5	U 140
Mar 17	@UCI	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 147
Mar 22	@TLSA	L 66-77	+4.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

ALA

L 76-115

−25.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−19.5

STAN

W 75-74

+10.5

TNST

L 60-63

−15.5

FRES

W 84-72

+3.5

W 67-39

+13.5

WYO

L 66-98

−27.5

CSU

L 62-70

−1.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+5.5

SJSU

W 76-62

+6.5

USU

W 86-76

+25.5

SDSU

L 71-82

−7.5

UNM

L 61-89

−24.5

NEV

L 76-89

−5.5

FRES

L 96-98

−3.5

GCU

W 80-78

+4.5

SJSU

W 82-75

−5.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+13.5

CSU

L 86-91

−7.5

W 91-66

+8.5

GCU

L 67-80

−5.5

NEV

W 85-83

+3.5

USU

W 92-65

+34.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+6.5

WYO

W 73-70

+0.5

USU

L 60-80

−11.5

UCI

W 75-72

+1.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

ALA

L 76-115

+9.5

RUTG

L 65-80

−8.5

STAN

W 75-74

−15.5

TNST

L 60-63

−38.5

FRES

W 84-72

−3.5

W 67-39

−36.5

WYO

L 66-98

+9.5

CSU

L 62-70

−19.5

BOIS

W 89-85

+23.5

SJSU

W 76-62

−8.5

USU

W 86-76

+5.5

SDSU

L 71-82

+3.5

UNM

L 61-89

−5.5

NEV

L 76-89

+17.5

FRES

L 96-98

+40.5

GCU

W 80-78

+9.5

SJSU

W 82-75

+7.5

BOIS

W 86-83

+15.5

CSU

L 86-91

+29.5

W 91-66

+3.5

GCU

L 67-80

−3.5

NEV

W 85-83

+17.5

USU

W 92-65

+0.5

SDSU

L 86-89

+21.5

WYO

W 73-70

−10.5

USU

L 60-80

−16.5

UCI

W 75-72

−6.5

TLSA

L 66-77

−18.5

over 20under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Francisco

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L W L L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W W L L L W W W W W L L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsMINN	W 77-65	+1.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsCOLO	L 69-79	-1.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsNEV	L 65-81	-5.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 146
Dec 3	vsUNA	L 63-65	-16.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 7	vsMSST	W 65-62	+4.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	@SLU	L 75-85	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLUC	W 85-71	-11.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMORG	W 94-64	-25.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 28	@SEA	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@ORST	L 62-70	-4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 2	vsUSD	W 74-64	-12.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	vsPORT	W 73-68	-11.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 8	@LMU	L 82-84	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@PEPP	W 80-60	-7.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 13	vsSMC	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 18	vsWSU	W 85-80	-5.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 165
Jan 24	@GONZ	L 66-68	+15.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 134
Jan 28	@SCU	L 73-88	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 31	vsPAC	W 87-82	-4.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 169
Feb 4	vsLMU	L 75-84	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	@SMC	L 54-79	+11.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 12	vsORST	L 63-90	-8.5	L −35.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 15	@USD	W 92-79	-5.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsGONZ	L 59-80	+15.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 21	vsSCU	L 73-94	+6.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Feb 28	@PAC	W 72-61	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsPORT	W 82-65	-6.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 147
Mar 8	vsORST	L 77-78	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

MINN

W 77-65

+13.5

COLO

L 69-79

−11.5

NEV

L 65-81

−21.5

UNA

L 63-65

−18.5

MSST

W 65-62

+7.5

SLU

L 75-85

+2.5

LUC

W 85-71

+2.5

MORG

W 94-64

+4.5

SEA

W 67-59

+10.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−2.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

−0.5

PEPP

W 80-60

+12.5

SMC

L 68-82

−8.5

WSU

W 85-80

−0.5

GONZ

L 66-68

+13.5

SCU

L 73-88

−5.5

PAC

W 87-82

+0.5

LMU

L 75-84

−17.5

SMC

L 54-79

−13.5

ORST

L 63-90

−35.5

USD

W 92-79

+7.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−5.5

SCU

L 73-94

−14.5

PAC

W 72-61

+14.5

PORT

W 82-65

+10.5

ORST

L 77-78

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

MINN

W 77-65

+1.5

COLO

L 69-79

−2.5

NEV

L 65-81

+3.5

UNA

L 63-65

−17.5

MSST

W 65-62

−23.5

SLU

L 75-85

+4.5

LUC

W 85-71

+12.5

MORG

W 94-64

+12.5

SEA

W 67-59

−20.5

ORST

L 62-70

−12.5

USD

W 74-64

−14.5

PORT

W 73-68

−6.5

LMU

L 82-84

+24.5

PEPP

W 80-60

−0.5

SMC

L 68-82

+8.5

WSU

W 85-80

+18.5

GONZ

L 66-68

−15.5

SCU

L 73-88

+10.5

PAC

W 87-82

+30.5

LMU

L 75-84

+13.5

SMC

L 54-79

−9.5

ORST

L 63-90

+12.5

USD

W 92-79

+22.5

GONZ

L 59-80

−12.5

SCU

L 73-94

+8.5

PAC

W 72-61

−9.5

PORT

W 82-65

+0.5

ORST

L 77-78

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UNLV 0, San Francisco 0, even 5

UNLVBetterSan Francisco

G D. Williams15.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 64

No call

G A. Bashir TR2.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

G A. Storr TR15.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

No call

G A. Braccia0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G I. Williamson8.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

Even

F B. Oosterbaan TR7.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

F T. Jones11.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 91

No call

F N. Newbury NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F M. Thomas TR10.8 pts · 8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

No call

C I. Diagne TR1.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

UNLVBetterSan Francisco

UNLV offense90th of 366 · -0.2

UNLVSmall

SF defense165th of 366 · -3.7

UNLV defense114th of 366 · -1.5

UNLVSmall

SF offense178th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players

UNLVSmall

Backcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.3 · 2 players

UNLVBig

Frontcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUNLV betterSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNLV

Guards

D. Williams33 minA. Storr26 min · TRI. Williamson23 minS. Mack16 min · TRC. Miles14 min · TRJ. Cunningham3 min

Forwards

T. Jones27 minM. Thomas27 min · TRT. Harris13 min · TRM. Loum11 min · TRJ. KissNew

Centers

J. Foumena10 min · TR

San Francisco

Guards

A. Bashir10 min · TRA. Braccia5 minW. FodeNewM. MageeNewY. VitlemNewD. BordonNew

Forwards

B. Oosterbaan25 min · TRN. NewburyNewA. TysonNewG. KnudsenNewD. WileyNewJ. PihtovsNew

Centers

I. Diagne7 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNLV78.6 #88

SF73.9 #198

Points per possession

UNLV1.10 #134

SF1.10 #131

Pace (possessions)

UNLV71.3 #57

SF67.3 #271

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNLV53.5 #81

SF51.3 #184

3-point %

UNLV35.2 #102

SF34.6 #140

3-point attempt rate

UNLV36.4 #243

SF46.1 #45

Free throw rate

UNLV40.6 #51

SF40.1 #59

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNLV17.1 #209

SF15.9 #129

Offensive rebound rate

UNLV30.2 #189

SF31.4 #148

Assists per game

UNLV14.1 #137

SF13.6 #174

Defense

Points allowed

UNLV79.3 #306

SF73.8 #149

Points allowed per possession

UNLV1.11 #250

SF1.09 #206

Opponent effective FG%

UNLV52.3 #231

SF50.8 #143

Opponent 3-point %

UNLV35.2 #259

SF34.1 #187

Turnovers forced

UNLV17.4 #127

SF14.1 #331

Defensive rebound rate

UNLV68.0 #256

SF71.0 #105

Steals per game

UNLV7.3 #102

SF5.1 #332

Blocks per game

UNLV4.7 #26

SF2.9 #238

UNLV		SF
Scoring
78.6 #88	Points per game	73.9 #198
1.10 #134	Points per possession	1.10 #131
71.3 #57	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #271
Shooting
53.5 #81	Effective FG%	51.3 #184
35.2 #102	3-point %	34.6 #140
36.4 #243	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #45
40.6 #51	Free throw rate	40.1 #59
Possessions
17.1 #209	Turnover rate	15.9 #129
30.2 #189	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #148
14.1 #137	Assists per game	13.6 #174
Defense
79.3 #306	Points allowed	73.8 #149
1.11 #250	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #206
52.3 #231	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #143
35.2 #259	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #187
17.4 #127	Turnovers forced	14.1 #331
68.0 #256	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #105
7.3 #102	Steals per game	5.1 #332
4.7 #26	Blocks per game	2.9 #238

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNLV

17-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa66–77
W@ UC Irvine75–72
Lvs Utah State60–80
Wvs Wyoming73–70
L@ San Diego St86–89

A week or more of rest.

San Francisco

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oregon St77–78
Wvs Portland82–65
W@ Pacific72–61
Lvs Santa Clara73–94
Lvs Gonzaga59–80

A week or more of rest.

UNLV Rebels at San Francisco Dons

What could decide it: UNLV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNLV

San Francisco

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNLV

San Francisco