Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 9:15 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Georgia Tech and Mississippi St
GT	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 84–76 · win probability MSST 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 160.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

GT 1, MSST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GTSmall

Three-pointers

GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 33.1% and 40.1% of their shots

MSSTSmall

MSST offense vs GT defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

GT has played the 78th-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSSTSmall

Home court

MSST at home. This season: MSST 0-0 at home, GT 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GT 18.6%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: GT 15.6%, MSST 12.8%

Even

GT offense vs MSST defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GT 16%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: GT 5, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GT 33.3, MSST 30.6. Allowed: GT 34.2, MSST 32.3

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: GT plays 71.9 a game (38th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GT 29.9%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: GT 69.3%, MSST 69.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GT 50.0 and allows 49.9; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSST -7.8	—
Total	—	160.2	—
Projected score	—	GT 76.2 · MSST 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -4.5	—
1H total	74.8	—
1H projected score	GT 35.1 · MSST 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	8-2	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	4-12	—

Venue/role: GT away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs MUR	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs CIT	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs FLA	No recent meeting

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs AAMU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ MARQ	W58–55LU
Dec 15	vs MVSU	W82–52LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GT 1–1 MSSTSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · GT 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	MSST 85 @ GT 73	GT +1.5	MSST W
Nov 28, 2023-24	MSST 59 @ GT 67	GT +8.5	GT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Georgia Tech 1, Mississippi St 1, even 3

Georgia TechBetterMississippi St

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

Even

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

Even

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

MSSTBig

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

GTBig

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

Georgia TechBetterMississippi St

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Even

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

MSSTSmall

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

MSSTSmall

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

GTSmall

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

GTSmall

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGT betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GT73.8 #208

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

GT1.03 #292

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

GT71.9 #38

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

GT50.0 #234

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

GT35.1 #109

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

GT33.1 #313

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

GT33.3 #229

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

GT18.6 #306

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

GT29.9 #203

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

GT15.8 #55

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

GT77.4 #247

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

GT1.08 #148

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

GT49.9 #94

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

GT33.1 #134

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

GT15.6 #244

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

GT69.3 #189

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

GT6.1 #229

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

GT3.9 #80

MSST4.4 #44

GT		MSST
Scoring
73.8 #208	Points per game	77.6 #103
1.03 #292	Points per possession	1.07 #205
71.9 #38	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
50.0 #234	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
35.1 #109	3-point %	32.4 #262
33.1 #313	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
33.3 #229	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
18.6 #306	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
29.9 #203	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
15.8 #55	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
77.4 #247	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.08 #148	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
49.9 #94	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
33.1 #134	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
15.6 #244	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
69.3 #189	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
6.1 #229	Steals per game	5.8 #260
3.9 #80	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it: MSST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia Tech

Mississippi St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Georgia Tech

Mississippi St