1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. DEN @ NMSU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Denver Pioneers at New Mexico State Aggies

Pan American Center · at New Mexico St
#263DENDenver
@
#133NMSUNew Mexico St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DENThis seasonNMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NMSU 81–72 · win probability NMSU 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NMSU has more of the edges

DEN 1, NMSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NMSUBig
NMSU offense vs DEN defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
NMSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, NMSU 32.5%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, NMSU 69.7%
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, NMSU the 174th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NMSUSmall
DEN offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
NMSUSmall
Home court
NMSU at home. This season: NMSU 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
DENSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, NMSU 34.9. Allowed: DEN 36.8, NMSU 44.2
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), NMSU 68.1 (224th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7
Even
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 38.6% and 38.7% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, NMSU 22%. Transfers in: DEN 6, NMSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, NMSU 15.0%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, NMSU 14.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NMSU -9.2—
Total—152.9—
Projected score—DEN 71.9 · NMSU 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNMSU -5.3—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreDEN 33.1 · NMSU 38.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico St has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 1, New Mexico St 3, even 1
DenverBetterNew Mexico St
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
DENBig
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
NMSUBig
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
NMSUBig
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
Even
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
NMSUSmall
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
DenverBetterNew Mexico St
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
NMSUSmall
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
NMSUBig
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
NMSUSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterNMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
New Mexico St
Guards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENNMSU
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game73.8 #207
1.16 #53Points per possession1.08 #179
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)68.1 #224
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%48.5 #302
36.8 #323-point %32.4 #257
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate38.7 #198
34.1 #203Free throw rate34.9 #186
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate15.0 #66
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate32.5 #105
11.2 #327Assists per game12.5 #250
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed73.8 #150
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.08 #179
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%48.7 #52
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %32.4 #83
13.0 #355Turnovers forced14.7 #311
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate69.7 #175
4.5 #356Steals per game5.7 #276
1.9 #348Blocks per game3.0 #221
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Sam Houston61–69
  • Wvs Jax State68–63
  • Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
  • Wvs Jax State77–75
  • L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.