Liberty Flames at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Liberty and UNC Wilmington
LIB	This season	UNCW
0-1	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
0-1	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 75–68 · win probability UNCW 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

LIB 1, UNCW 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIB 19.3%, UNCW 35.3%. Defensive: LIB 66.9%, UNCW 72.4%

UNCWBig

Three-pointers

LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%; UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 47.7% and 38.8% of their shots

LIBSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIB 13.4%, UNCW 14.9%. Forced: LIB 17.0%, UNCW 14.9%

UNCWSmall

LIB offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LIB has played the 148th-hardest schedule, UNCW the 228th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIB 31.4, UNCW 40.4. Allowed: LIB 27.0, UNCW 31.7

UNCWSmall

Home court

UNCW at home. This season: UNCW 0-0 at home, LIB 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIB 47%, UNCW 35%. Transfers in: LIB 2, UNCW 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: LIB plays 65.1 a game (343rd fastest), UNCW 66.1 (310th). Faster games mean more points

Even

UNCW offense vs LIB defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7; UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCW -6.4	—
Total	—	142.7	—
Projected score	—	LIB 68.1 · UNCW 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -3.7	—
1H total	66.8	—
1H projected score	LIB 31.5 · UNCW 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWLWL	13-18	42%	7-7	—
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: LIB away; UNCW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUOOU	18-13	58%	23-8
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

No more games listed yet.

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ MRSH	W70–69LU
Dec 5	vs VAL	W73–70LO
Dec 12	@ GASO	W92–84WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Liberty

31 games played

Straight up

23-8

74% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-874%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W L L L W L W L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O O U U U U O U O U O U O U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsKENN	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	vsJXST	W 78-69	-9.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 8	@LT	W 72-56	-4.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	@SHSU	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsNMSU	W 73-71	-8.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUTEP	W 80-69	-13.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 21	@WKU	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	vsDEL	W 67-51	-15.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MTSU	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	136.5	O 146
Feb 4	@DEL	W 75-69	-10.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMOST	W 79-76	-9.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 11	@NMSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@UTEP	W 73-64	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 19	vsFIU	W 90-89	-9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsWKU	L 73-94	-7.5	L −28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	@KENN	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	@JXST	W 81-78	-3.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsLT	L 71-76	-8.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	vsSHSU	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsMOST	L 69-77	-4.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 17	@GMU	W 77-71	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 21	@NEV	L 63-73	+7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

KENN

W 81-73

+0.5

JXST

W 78-69

−0.5

W 72-56

+11.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+6.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−6.5

UTEP

W 80-69

−2.5

WKU

W 76-69

+5.5

DEL

W 67-51

+0.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+14.5

DEL

W 75-69

−4.5

MOST

W 79-76

−6.5

NMSU

W 77-75

−1.5

UTEP

W 73-64

+2.5

FIU

W 90-89

−8.5

WKU

L 73-94

−28.5

KENN

L 65-74

−10.5

JXST

W 81-78

−0.5

L 71-76

−13.5

SHSU

W 79-72

+2.5

MOST

L 69-77

−12.5

GMU

W 77-71

+8.5

NEV

L 63-73

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

KENN

W 81-73

−4.5

JXST

W 78-69

+12.5

W 72-56

−7.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+1.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−1.5

UTEP

W 80-69

+11.5

WKU

W 76-69

−3.5

DEL

W 67-51

−16.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+9.5

DEL

W 75-69

+11.5

MOST

W 79-76

+14.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+7.5

UTEP

W 73-64

−2.5

FIU

W 90-89

+26.5

WKU

L 73-94

+19.5

KENN

L 65-74

−13.5

JXST

W 81-78

+19.5

L 71-76

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-72

−1.5

MOST

L 69-77

+3.5

GMU

W 77-71

+6.5

NEV

L 63-73

−10.5

over 18under 13avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: Liberty 0, UNC Wilmington 2, even 3

LibertyBetterUNC Wilmington

G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67

Even

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55

Even

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

UNCWSmall

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

Even

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50

UNCWBig

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

LibertyBetterUNC Wilmington

LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3

UNCWSmall

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9

Even

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

UNCWBig

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

UNCWBig

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLIB betterUNCW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Liberty

Guards

C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew

Forwards

D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIB75.8 #146

UNCW74.6 #174

Points per possession

LIB1.17 #41

UNCW1.13 #84

Pace (possessions)

LIB65.1 #343

UNCW66.1 #310

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIB59.1 #4

UNCW50.4 #220

3-point %

LIB38.6 #8

UNCW35.0 #124

3-point attempt rate

LIB47.7 #28

UNCW38.8 #194

Free throw rate

LIB31.4 #273

UNCW40.4 #54

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIB13.4 #13

UNCW14.9 #57

Offensive rebound rate

LIB19.3 #365

UNCW35.3 #40

Assists per game

LIB16.5 #36

UNCW13.1 #204

Defense

Points allowed

LIB72.2 #110

UNCW68.1 #32

Points allowed per possession

LIB1.11 #234

UNCW1.03 #56

Opponent effective FG%

LIB52.7 #251

UNCW47.5 #30

Opponent 3-point %

LIB37.7 #353

UNCW29.7 #6

Turnovers forced

LIB17.0 #149

UNCW14.9 #297

Defensive rebound rate

LIB66.9 #302

UNCW72.4 #51

Steals per game

LIB6.2 #218

UNCW5.1 #330

Blocks per game

LIB3.3 #178

UNCW2.4 #312

LIB		UNCW
Scoring
75.8 #146	Points per game	74.6 #174
1.17 #41	Points per possession	1.13 #84
65.1 #343	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #310
Shooting
59.1 #4	Effective FG%	50.4 #220
38.6 #8	3-point %	35.0 #124
47.7 #28	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #194
31.4 #273	Free throw rate	40.4 #54
Possessions
13.4 #13	Turnover rate	14.9 #57
19.3 #365	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #40
16.5 #36	Assists per game	13.1 #204
Defense
72.2 #110	Points allowed	68.1 #32
1.11 #234	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #56
52.7 #251	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #30
37.7 #353	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #6
17.0 #149	Turnovers forced	14.9 #297
66.9 #302	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #51
6.2 #218	Steals per game	5.1 #330
3.3 #178	Blocks per game	2.4 #312

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Nevada63–73
W@ George Mason77–71
Lvs Missouri St69–77
Wvs Sam Houston79–72
Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

Liberty Flames at UNC Wilmington Seahawks

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Liberty

UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Liberty

UNC Wilmington