UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Marshall Thundering Herd: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETCam Henderson Center · at Marshall

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Wilmington and Marshall
UNCW	This season	MRSH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 77–73 · win probability UNCW 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

UNCW 4, MRSH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCW 40.4, MRSH 29.2. Allowed: UNCW 31.7, MRSH 41.1

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCW 35.3%, MRSH 31.9%. Defensive: UNCW 72.4%, MRSH 66.2%

UNCWBig

UNCW offense vs MRSH defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 277th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNCW plays 66.1 a game (310th fastest), MRSH 70.7 (86th). Faster games mean more points

UNCWSmall

MRSH offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 198th of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

MRSHSmall

Home court

MRSH at home. This season: MRSH 0-0 at home, UNCW 0-0 away

MRSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5; MRSH 54.8 and allows 50.3

Even

Three-pointers

UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%; MRSH hits 36.8% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 38.8% and 44.3% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCW 35%, MRSH 27%. Transfers in: UNCW 4, MRSH 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCW 14.9%, MRSH 16.6%. Forced: UNCW 14.9%, MRSH 16.2%

Context

Schedule so far

UNCW has played the 228th-hardest schedule, MRSH the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCW -4.7	—
Total	—	149.7	—
Projected score	—	UNCW 77.2 · MRSH 72.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -2.9	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	UNCW 36.4 · MRSH 33.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-6	—
MRSH WLWLL	10-21	32%	4-12	—

Venue/role: UNCW away; MRSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7
MRSH OOOOU	19-12	61%	18-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
MRSH	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs VAL	W73–70LO
Dec 12	@ GASO	W92–84WO

Marshall

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs BCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCW 3–0 MRSHUNCW leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UNCW has won the last 3 meetings · UNCW 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	MRSH 69 @ UNCW 70	UNCW -8.5	MRSH W
Dec 7, 2024-25	MRSH 69 @ UNCW 78	UNCW -6.5	UNCW W
Dec 21, 2023-24	UNCW 78 @ MRSH 69	MRSH -1.5	UNCW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marshall

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

10-21

32% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

W W W L W W L L L W W L W W W L L W W L W W L W L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2132%

W W L L W L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

U U O O O U U U O U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MASS	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	@TOL	W 85-73	+2.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 12	vsELON	W 96-89	-8.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	@UVA	L 78-104	+20.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 20	vsUAPB	W 98-70	-20.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsMERC	W 69-60	-11.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 26	vsLIP	L 67-90	-7.5	L −30.5	157.5	U 157
Dec 3	@UNCW	L 69-70	+8.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@OHIO	L 81-88	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 10	vsWKU	W 77-61	-1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 13	vsWRST	W 76-74	-3.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 20	@TROY	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 133
Dec 31	vsGAST	W 84-80	-13.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsAPP	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 169
Jan 7	@JMU	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 10	@GAST	L 73-81	-4.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsCCU	L 83-85	-9.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	vsJMU	W 77-72	-6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 149
Jan 22	vsULM	W 115-60	-18.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 28	@TXST	L 68-72	-3.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 31	@ARST	W 70-61	+3.5	W +12.5	165.5	U 131
Feb 4	vsUSM	W 81-77	-10.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsM-OH	L 74-90	+1.5	L −14.5	162.5	O 164
Feb 11	@ODU	W 81-79	-3.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 160
Feb 14	@GASO	L 87-101	-2.5	L −16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 16	vsUSA	W 84-80	-6.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 19	@APP	W 94-93	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 187
Feb 21	@CCU	L 75-79	-2.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	vsODU	W 97-88	-7.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 185
Feb 27	vsGASO	L 82-99	-7.5	L −24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 8	vsGASO	L 78-82	-2.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

+10.5

TOL

W 85-73

+14.5

ELON

W 96-89

−1.5

UVA

L 78-104

−5.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+7.5

MERC

W 69-60

−2.5

LIP

L 67-90

−30.5

UNCW

L 69-70

+7.5

OHIO

L 81-88

−3.5

WKU

W 77-61

+14.5

WRST

W 76-74

−1.5

TROY

L 63-70

−2.5

GAST

W 84-80

−9.5

APP

W 88-81

−0.5

JMU

W 66-64

+3.5

GAST

L 73-81

−12.5

CCU

L 83-85

−11.5

JMU

W 77-72

−1.5

ULM

W 115-60

+36.5

TXST

L 68-72

−7.5

ARST

W 70-61

+12.5

USM

W 81-77

−6.5

M-OH

L 74-90

−14.5

ODU

W 81-79

−1.5

GASO

L 87-101

−16.5

USA

W 84-80

−2.5

APP

W 94-93

+4.5

CCU

L 75-79

−6.5

ODU

W 97-88

+1.5

GASO

L 82-99

−24.5

GASO

L 78-82

−6.5

covered 10didn’t cover 21avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

−2.5

TOL

W 85-73

−2.5

ELON

W 96-89

+29.5

UVA

L 78-104

+26.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+3.5

MERC

W 69-60

−18.5

LIP

L 67-90

−0.5

UNCW

L 69-70

−11.5

OHIO

L 81-88

+11.5

WKU

W 77-61

−21.5

WRST

W 76-74

+0.5

TROY

L 63-70

−22.5

GAST

W 84-80

+12.5

APP

W 88-81

+27.5

JMU

W 66-64

−22.5

GAST

L 73-81

+0.5

CCU

L 83-85

+16.5

JMU

W 77-72

−0.5

ULM

W 115-60

+14.5

TXST

L 68-72

−7.5

ARST

W 70-61

−34.5

USM

W 81-77

+9.5

M-OH

L 74-90

+1.5

ODU

W 81-79

+4.5

GASO

L 87-101

+25.5

USA

W 84-80

+13.5

APP

W 94-93

+43.5

CCU

L 75-79

+0.5

ODU

W 97-88

+25.5

GASO

L 82-99

+12.5

GASO

L 78-82

−6.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Wilmington 4, Marshall 0, even 1

UNC WilmingtonBetterMarshall

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

UNCWSmall

G N. Otshudi14.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 45

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

UNCWSmall

G F. Oshodi TR8.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

UNCWBig

G L. Rasmussen TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 15

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

Even

G D. Johnson TR2.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 17

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

UNCWBig

F E. Harding3.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 11

UNC WilmingtonBetterMarshall

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

UNCWBig

MRSH defense277th of 366 · -7.0

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

UNCWSmall

MRSH offense198th of 366 · -6.1

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

UNCWBig

Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

UNCWBig

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNCW betterMRSH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

Marshall

Guards

N. Otshudi32 minF. Oshodi20 min · TRL. Rasmussen15 min · TRD. Johnson15 min · TRB. Slay8 minE. Manyuon2 min · TR

Forwards

E. Harding14 minC. Langdon3 min · TRV. Kuridza2 min · TRB. DjigoNew

Centers

K. Maker6 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCW74.6 #174

MRSH80.5 #56

Points per possession

UNCW1.13 #84

MRSH1.14 #71

Pace (possessions)

UNCW66.1 #310

MRSH70.7 #86

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCW50.4 #220

MRSH54.8 #42

3-point %

UNCW35.0 #124

MRSH36.8 #34

3-point attempt rate

UNCW38.8 #194

MRSH44.3 #82

Free throw rate

UNCW40.4 #54

MRSH29.2 #328

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCW14.9 #57

MRSH16.6 #172

Offensive rebound rate

UNCW35.3 #40

MRSH31.9 #127

Assists per game

UNCW13.1 #204

MRSH16.2 #43

Defense

Points allowed

UNCW68.1 #32

MRSH78.9 #292

Points allowed per possession

UNCW1.03 #56

MRSH1.11 #253

Opponent effective FG%

UNCW47.5 #30

MRSH50.3 #118

Opponent 3-point %

UNCW29.7 #6

MRSH33.6 #162

Turnovers forced

UNCW14.9 #297

MRSH16.2 #206

Defensive rebound rate

UNCW72.4 #51

MRSH66.2 #316

Steals per game

UNCW5.1 #330

MRSH6.1 #225

Blocks per game

UNCW2.4 #312

MRSH4.8 #23

UNCW		MRSH
Scoring
74.6 #174	Points per game	80.5 #56
1.13 #84	Points per possession	1.14 #71
66.1 #310	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #86
Shooting
50.4 #220	Effective FG%	54.8 #42
35.0 #124	3-point %	36.8 #34
38.8 #194	3-point attempt rate	44.3 #82
40.4 #54	Free throw rate	29.2 #328
Possessions
14.9 #57	Turnover rate	16.6 #172
35.3 #40	Offensive rebound rate	31.9 #127
13.1 #204	Assists per game	16.2 #43
Defense
68.1 #32	Points allowed	78.9 #292
1.03 #56	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #253
47.5 #30	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #118
29.7 #6	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #162
14.9 #297	Turnovers forced	16.2 #206
72.4 #51	Defensive rebound rate	66.2 #316
5.1 #330	Steals per game	6.1 #225
2.4 #312	Blocks per game	4.8 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

Marshall

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern78–82
Lvs GA Southern82–99
Wvs Old Dominion97–88
L@ Coastal75–79
W@ App State94–93

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Marshall Thundering Herd

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

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ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Wilmington

Marshall

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNC Wilmington

Marshall