Toledo Rockets at Valparaiso Beacons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETAthletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Toledo and Valparaiso
TOL	This season	VAL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAL 77–74 · win probability VAL 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

TOL 3, VAL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VALBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, VAL 32.5%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, VAL 69.9%

TOLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, VAL 15.7%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, VAL 16.9%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), VAL 67.4 (258th). Faster games mean more points

VALSmall

Home court

VAL at home. This season: VAL 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

TOLSmall

TOL offense vs VAL defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5

Even

VAL offense vs TOL defense

Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, VAL the 143rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, VAL 39.1. Allowed: TOL 26.6, VAL 35.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, VAL 51%. Transfers in: TOL 2, VAL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 32.5% and 36.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAL -3.0	—
Total	—	150.5	—
Projected score	—	TOL 73.7 · VAL 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAL -1.7	—
1H total	70.4	—
1H projected score	TOL 34.4 · VAL 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	—
VAL WWLLL	19-13	59%	11-5	—

Venue/role: TOL away; VAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
VAL UUOUO	17-15	53%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
VAL	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ OHIO	W79–67WU
Dec 5	vs KENT	L72–75LU
Dec 9	vs EMU	W94–75WO

Valparaiso

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ UIC	W71–67WU
Dec 5	@ UNCW	L70–73WO
Dec 12	vs CHST	L62–63LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TOL 2–0 VALTOL leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings · TOL 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2022-23	VAL 70 @ TOL 85	TOL -13	TOL W
Nov 9, 2021-22	TOL 69 @ VAL 61	VAL +5	TOL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Valparaiso

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L W L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W W W L W W W L L L W W W L W W W W W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U O U U O U U O O O O U U U O O O U U O O U U O O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEIU	W 66-63	-5.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	@UK	L 59-107	+32.5	L −15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsNICH	W 68-63	-2.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsBRY	W 68-50	-6.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@CLE	W 90-75	+2.5	W +17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 26	vsUSI	L 56-64	-9.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 29	vsWMU	W 84-55	-4.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 2	@MARQ	L 72-75	+17.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 13	vsUNCW	L 70-73	+4.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 16	@NU	L 70-86	+14.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 21	vsMUR	L 79-85	+5.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 164
Dec 29	@UNI	L 48-58	+8.5	L −1.5	131.5	U 106
Jan 1	@SIU	L 70-75	+7.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsUIC	W 66-59	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 125
Jan 7	vsILST	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MUR	L 79-92	+12.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 171
Jan 13	@BEL	L 74-78	+11.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 152
Jan 17	vsUNI	W 54-44	+1.5	W +11.5	130.5	U 98
Jan 21	vsSIU	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 28	vsBEL	L 77-78	+5.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 31	@INST	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@BRAD	L 65-72	+7.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 6	vsEVAN	W 70-63	-8.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	@DRKE	W 81-76	+3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ILST	L 64-86	+8.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	vsINST	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsBRAD	W 79-72	+2.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 21	@UIC	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	138.5	U 138
Feb 25	vsDRKE	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 28	@EVAN	L 79-80	-5.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsINST	W 63-62	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsBRAD	L 84-90	+5.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−2.5

L 59-107

−15.5

NICH

W 68-63

+2.5

BRY

W 68-50

+11.5

CLE

W 90-75

+17.5

USI

L 56-64

−17.5

WMU

W 84-55

+24.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+14.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+1.5

L 70-86

−1.5

MUR

L 79-85

−0.5

UNI

L 48-58

−1.5

SIU

L 70-75

+2.5

UIC

W 66-59

+4.5

ILST

W 77-71

+12.5

MUR

L 79-92

−0.5

BEL

L 74-78

+7.5

UNI

W 54-44

+11.5

SIU

W 69-63

+4.5

BEL

L 77-78

+4.5

INST

W 76-72

+6.5

BRAD

L 65-72

+0.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−1.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+8.5

ILST

L 64-86

−13.5

INST

W 76-75

−3.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+9.5

UIC

W 71-67

+11.5

DRKE

W 74-71

+0.5

EVAN

L 79-80

−6.5

INST

W 63-62

−1.5

BRAD

L 84-90

−0.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EIU

W 66-63

−15.5

L 59-107

+8.5

NICH

W 68-63

−13.5

BRY

W 68-50

−25.5

CLE

W 90-75

+6.5

USI

L 56-64

−30.5

WMU

W 84-55

−7.5

MARQ

L 72-75

+0.5

UNCW

L 70-73

+6.5

L 70-86

+10.5

MUR

L 79-85

+8.5

UNI

L 48-58

−25.5

SIU

L 70-75

−0.5

UIC

W 66-59

−19.5

ILST

W 77-71

+9.5

MUR

L 79-92

+18.5

BEL

L 74-78

+5.5

UNI

W 54-44

−32.5

SIU

W 69-63

−10.5

BEL

L 77-78

+9.5

INST

W 76-72

+2.5

BRAD

L 65-72

−7.5

EVAN

W 70-63

−3.5

DRKE

W 81-76

+12.5

ILST

L 64-86

+11.5

INST

W 76-75

+5.5

BRAD

W 79-72

+8.5

UIC

W 71-67

−0.5

DRKE

W 74-71

−1.5

EVAN

L 79-80

+21.5

INST

W 63-62

−15.5

BRAD

L 84-90

+34.5

over 17under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Toledo 2, Valparaiso 2, even 1

ToledoBetterValparaiso

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

TOLSmall

G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

VALBig

G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

VALBig

F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

TOLSmall

F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

ToledoBetterValparaiso

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

Even

VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

Even

VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

TOLSmall

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

VALSmall

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestTOL betterVAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

Valparaiso

Guards

R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min

Forwards

J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew

Centers

K. Yu8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

VAL71.2 #263

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

VAL1.06 #233

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

VAL67.4 #258

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

VAL47.6 #322

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

VAL33.9 #180

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

VAL36.8 #234

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

VAL39.1 #79

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

VAL15.7 #116

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

VAL32.5 #110

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

VAL11.7 #307

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

VAL71.9 #103

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

VAL1.06 #116

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

VAL50.5 #130

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

VAL32.1 #70

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

VAL16.9 #161

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

VAL69.9 #167

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

VAL5.9 #245

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

VAL3.6 #124

TOL		VAL
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	71.2 #263
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.06 #233
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #258
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	47.6 #322
37.0 #29	3-point %	33.9 #180
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #234
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	39.1 #79
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	15.7 #116
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #110
15.6 #61	Assists per game	11.7 #307
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	71.9 #103
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #116
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #130
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #70
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	16.9 #161
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	69.9 #167
7.7 #67	Steals per game	5.9 #245
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	3.6 #124

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Bradley84–90
Wvs Indiana St63–62
L@ Evansville79–80
Wvs Drake74–71
W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.

Toledo Rockets at Valparaiso Beacons

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

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ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

Valparaiso

The starting fives are even

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Toledo

Valparaiso