Western Illinois Leathernecks at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETThe HTC Center · at Coastal

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: W Illinois and Coastal
WIU	This season	CCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CCU 79–63 · win probability CCU 92%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CCU has more of the edges

WIU 1, CCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CCUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8

CCUBig

Three-pointers

WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 33.3% and 43.1% of their shots

CCUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, CCU 26.9%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, CCU 72.4%

CCUBig

WIU offense vs CCU defense

Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings

WIUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, CCU 32.3. Allowed: WIU 34.8, CCU 34.9

CCUSmall

CCU offense vs WIU defense

Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), CCU 69.9 (121st). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, CCU the 301st. A record against a soft schedule means less

CCUSmall

Home court

CCU at home. This season: CCU 0-0 at home, WIU 0-0 away

CCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, CCU 15.3%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, CCU 12.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, CCU 21%. Transfers in: WIU 0, CCU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CCU -16.0	—
Total	—	142.7	—
Projected score	—	WIU 63.3 · CCU 79.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CCU -9.4	—
1H total	66.8	—
1H projected score	WIU 28.7 · CCU 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU LLLLL	11-17	39%	8-8	—
CCU LWWWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: WIU away; CCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU UOUUO	13-15	46%	2-26
CCU UOOUO	17-14	55%	18-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
CCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	@ HCU	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ IU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs TNST	L56–83LU

Coastal

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ QUC	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs WIN	W88–84WO
Dec 9	@ ECU	L59–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIU 0–1 CCUCCU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2025-26	CCU 84 @ WIU 64	WIU +3.5	CCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

2-26

7% wins

Against the spread

11-17

39% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-267%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1739%

W W L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U U O O O U O U U U O U U O U O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 13	@UND	W 69-66	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	@LIN	L 76-92	+12.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 22	vsSIUE	L 61-66	+6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UTM	L 60-67	+13.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	@SEMO	L 50-73	+13.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	vsTNST	L 68-90	+6.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsTNTC	L 54-59	+3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 13	@EIU	L 55-57	+6.5	W +4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 17	@LR	L 79-86	+10.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@MORE	L 66-71	+8.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Jan 23	@USI	L 64-96	+6.5	L −25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsSEMO	L 74-78	+10.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	vsUTM	L 44-84	+10.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 5	@TNTC	L 72-97	+9.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	@TNST	L 56-83	+15.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 10	vsEIU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 12	vsLR	L 58-77	+7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 19	vsUSI	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	vsMORE	L 59-81	+8.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@SIUE	L 47-67	+13.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsLIN	L 69-91	+11.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

UND

W 69-66

+10.5

LIN

L 76-92

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-66

+1.5

UTM

L 60-67

+6.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−9.5

TNST

L 68-90

−15.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−1.5

EIU

L 55-57

+4.5

L 79-86

+3.5

L 66-71

+3.5

USI

L 64-96

−25.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+6.5

UTM

L 44-84

−29.5

TNTC

L 72-97

−15.5

TNST

L 56-83

−11.5

EIU

W 79-70

+13.5

L 58-77

−11.5

USI

L 70-77

−3.5

L 59-81

−13.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−6.5

LIN

L 69-91

−10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 17avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

UND

W 69-66

−10.5

LIN

L 76-92

+21.5

SIUE

L 61-66

−11.5

UTM

L 60-67

−13.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−24.5

TNST

L 68-90

+12.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−30.5

EIU

L 55-57

−20.5

L 79-86

+29.5

L 66-71

−1.5

USI

L 64-96

+23.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+9.5

UTM

L 44-84

−9.5

TNTC

L 72-97

+25.5

TNST

L 56-83

−12.5

EIU

W 79-70

+15.5

L 58-77

−6.5

USI

L 70-77

+6.5

L 59-81

−3.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−21.5

LIN

L 69-91

+10.5

over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coastal

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U O O U O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsGAST	L 71-89	-6.5	L −24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsODU	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	vsAPP	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 14	@MRSH	W 85-83	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	@GASO	W 79-75	+6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsTXST	W 72-70	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	vsUSM	W 85-67	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	@USA	L 48-53	+3.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 101
Feb 1	@ULM	W 83-79	-10.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsARST	L 66-70	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsMASS	W 94-91	+2.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 12	@UL	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 18	vsJMU	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsMRSH	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	@GAST	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	@JMU	W 69-68	+6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsGASO	L 72-96	-1.5	L −25.5	151.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

GAST

L 71-89

−24.5

ODU

L 66-70

−8.5

APP

W 67-62

+6.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+11.5

GASO

W 79-75

+10.5

TXST

W 72-70

+0.5

USM

W 85-67

+15.5

USA

L 48-53

−1.5

ULM

W 83-79

−6.5

ARST

L 66-70

+0.5

MASS

W 94-91

+5.5

W 69-65

+2.5

JMU

L 65-67

−0.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+6.5

GAST

W 76-71

+3.5

JMU

W 69-68

+7.5

GASO

L 72-96

−25.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

GAST

L 71-89

+11.5

ODU

L 66-70

−15.5

APP

W 67-62

−4.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+16.5

GASO

W 79-75

−3.5

TXST

W 72-70

+1.5

USM

W 85-67

+10.5

USA

L 48-53

−38.5

ULM

W 83-79

+15.5

ARST

L 66-70

−15.5

MASS

W 94-91

+37.5

W 69-65

+1.5

JMU

L 65-67

−8.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+0.5

GAST

W 76-71

+5.5

JMU

W 69-68

−4.5

GASO

L 72-96

+16.5

over 17under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: W Illinois 0, Coastal 0, even 5

W IllinoisBetterCoastal

G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9

Even

G T. Thompson3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 15

F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

Even

G D. Washington TR4.5 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G T. Perry TR4.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G D. Craig4.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 31

F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Hardaway TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 44

W IllinoisBetterCoastal

WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6

CCUSmall

CCU defense246th of 366 · -6.5

WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6

CCUSmall

CCU offense295th of 366 · -9.1

Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player

WIUSmall

Backcourt-4.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players

CCUSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWIU betterCCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Illinois

Guards

M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew

Forwards

D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew

Coastal

Guards

T. Thompson20 minD. Washington15 min · TRT. Perry13 min · TRD. Craig12 minJ. Cross6 min · TRJ. AlstonNew

Forwards

A. Hardaway20 min · TRD. Green11 minD. Fuquay8 min · TRF. BighamNewJ. BuzzardNew

Centers

C. Middleton10 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIU63.2 #357

CCU71.8 #251

Points per possession

WIU0.94 #359

CCU1.03 #290

Pace (possessions)

WIU67.6 #246

CCU69.9 #121

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIU44.5 #361

CCU47.9 #314

3-point %

WIU30.9 #322

CCU33.5 #196

3-point attempt rate

WIU33.3 #311

CCU43.1 #113

Free throw rate

WIU37.7 #108

CCU32.3 #254

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIU17.5 #239

CCU15.3 #84

Offensive rebound rate

WIU27.0 #293

CCU26.9 #296

Assists per game

WIU8.1 #365

CCU9.9 #359

Defense

Points allowed

WIU78.5 #281

CCU73.5 #143

Points allowed per possession

WIU1.16 #334

CCU1.05 #88

Opponent effective FG%

WIU54.2 #303

CCU46.8 #18

Opponent 3-point %

WIU35.6 #288

CCU32.8 #105

Turnovers forced

WIU14.9 #300

CCU12.3 #364

Defensive rebound rate

WIU65.2 #334

CCU72.4 #52

Steals per game

WIU5.1 #331

CCU4.3 #360

Blocks per game

WIU2.0 #346

CCU3.2 #187

WIU		CCU
Scoring
63.2 #357	Points per game	71.8 #251
0.94 #359	Points per possession	1.03 #290
67.6 #246	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #121
Shooting
44.5 #361	Effective FG%	47.9 #314
30.9 #322	3-point %	33.5 #196
33.3 #311	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #113
37.7 #108	Free throw rate	32.3 #254
Possessions
17.5 #239	Turnover rate	15.3 #84
27.0 #293	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #296
8.1 #365	Assists per game	9.9 #359
Defense
78.5 #281	Points allowed	73.5 #143
1.16 #334	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #88
54.2 #303	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #18
35.6 #288	Opponent 3-point %	32.8 #105
14.9 #300	Turnovers forced	12.3 #364
65.2 #334	Defensive rebound rate	72.4 #52
5.1 #331	Steals per game	4.3 #360
2.0 #346	Blocks per game	3.2 #187

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
L@ SIUE47–67
Lvs Morehead St59–81
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern72–96
W@ James Madison69–68
W@ Georgia St76–71
Wvs Marshall79–75
Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

What could decide it: CCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Illinois

Coastal

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

W Illinois

Coastal