Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Queens University Royals: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETCurry Arena · at Queens University Royals

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Coastal and Queens University Royals
CCU	This season	QUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects QUC 83–74 · win probability QUC 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: QUC has more of the edges

CCU 2, QUC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

QUCBig

QUC offense vs CCU defense

Offense 102nd of 366 against a defense 246th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CCU has played the 301st-hardest schedule, QUC the 194th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CCU 26.9%, QUC 30.2%. Defensive: CCU 72.4%, QUC 66.4%

QUCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CCU 15.3%, QUC 14.8%. Forced: CCU 12.3%, QUC 15.1%

QUCSmall

Home court

QUC at home. This season: QUC 0-0 at home, CCU 0-0 away

CCUSmall

Three-pointers

CCU hits 33.5% and allows 32.8%; QUC hits 35.7% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 43.1% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CCU 21%, QUC 0%. Transfers in: CCU 6, QUC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

CCU offense vs QUC defense

Offense 295th of 366 against a defense 331st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: CCU plays 69.9 a game (121st fastest), QUC 71.2 (65th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CCU 32.3, QUC 35.4. Allowed: CCU 34.9, QUC 38.1

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CCU 47.9 and allows 46.8; QUC 56.4 and allows 54.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	QUC -9.1	—
Total	—	156.6	—
Projected score	—	CCU 73.8 · QUC 82.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUC -5.3	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	CCU 33.9 · QUC 39.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU LWWWL	18-13	58%	10-7	—
QUC LLWWL	15-19	44%	8-5	—

Venue/role: CCU away; QUC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU UOOUO	17-14	55%	18-13
QUC UUOOO	22-12	65%	20-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
QUC	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Coastal

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs WIN	W88–84WO
Dec 9	@ ECU	L59–63WU

Queens University Royals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ GWEB	W107–74WO
Dec 8	@ CSU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ BAY	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coastal

31 games played

Straight up

18-13

58% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1358%

L W L W W L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L W W W W L L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W L L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O O U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U O O U O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WMU	L 71-76	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 11	vsWIN	W 72-66	+2.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 14	@JXST	L 67-74	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 21	@WIU	W 84-64	-3.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 22	vsUND	W 75-58	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@ILST	L 42-94	+12.5	L −39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsAAMU	W 67-60	-7.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	@UPST	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	@WIN	W 88-84	+16.5	W +20.5	153.5	O 172
Dec 13	@GCU	L 61-82	+17.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Dec 18	@APP	L 49-67	+4.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ODU	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@JOES	W 68-62	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 1	vsGASO	L 81-82	-1.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsGAST	L 71-89	-6.5	L −24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsODU	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	vsAPP	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 129
Jan 14	@MRSH	W 85-83	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Jan 17	@GASO	W 79-75	+6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsTXST	W 72-70	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	vsUSM	W 85-67	-2.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	@USA	L 48-53	+3.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 101
Feb 1	@ULM	W 83-79	-10.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsARST	L 66-70	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsMASS	W 94-91	+2.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 12	@UL	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 18	vsJMU	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsMRSH	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 154
Feb 24	@GAST	W 76-71	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	@JMU	W 69-68	+6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	vsGASO	L 72-96	-1.5	L −25.5	151.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

−2.5

WIN

W 72-66

+8.5

JXST

L 67-74

+0.5

WIU

W 84-64

+16.5

UND

W 75-58

+13.5

ILST

L 42-94

−39.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−0.5

UPST

L 78-85

−4.5

WIN

W 88-84

+20.5

GCU

L 61-82

−3.5

APP

L 49-67

−13.5

ODU

W 76-74

+5.5

JOES

W 68-62

+13.5

GASO

L 81-82

−2.5

GAST

L 71-89

−24.5

ODU

L 66-70

−8.5

APP

W 67-62

+6.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+11.5

GASO

W 79-75

+10.5

TXST

W 72-70

+0.5

USM

W 85-67

+15.5

USA

L 48-53

−1.5

ULM

W 83-79

−6.5

ARST

L 66-70

+0.5

MASS

W 94-91

+5.5

W 69-65

+2.5

JMU

L 65-67

−0.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+6.5

GAST

W 76-71

+3.5

JMU

W 69-68

+7.5

GASO

L 72-96

−25.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WMU

L 71-76

+0.5

WIN

W 72-66

−27.5

JXST

L 67-74

+1.5

WIU

W 84-64

+9.5

UND

W 75-58

−14.5

ILST

L 42-94

−10.5

AAMU

W 67-60

−13.5

UPST

L 78-85

+18.5

WIN

W 88-84

+18.5

GCU

L 61-82

−0.5

APP

L 49-67

−21.5

ODU

W 76-74

+2.5

JOES

W 68-62

−14.5

GASO

L 81-82

+5.5

GAST

L 71-89

+11.5

ODU

L 66-70

−15.5

APP

W 67-62

−4.5

MRSH

W 85-83

+16.5

GASO

W 79-75

−3.5

TXST

W 72-70

+1.5

USM

W 85-67

+10.5

USA

L 48-53

−38.5

ULM

W 83-79

+15.5

ARST

L 66-70

−15.5

MASS

W 94-91

+37.5

W 69-65

+1.5

JMU

L 65-67

−8.5

MRSH

W 79-75

+0.5

GAST

W 76-71

+5.5

JMU

W 69-68

−4.5

GASO

L 72-96

+16.5

over 17under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Queens University Royals

34 games played

Straight up

20-14

59% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-12

65% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1459%

L L L W W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L L W W L L W W W L L L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1265%

U O O U O O O O O O O U O O U U U O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 28	@UVA	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	vsGWEB	W 107-74	-14.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 12	vsSCST	W 102-78	-18.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 14	@WAKE	L 73-111	+18.5	L −19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 16	@ARK	L 80-108	+23.5	L −4.5	169.5	O 188
Dec 29	@AUB	L 65-106	+25.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 1	vsEKU	W 91-89	-4.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsBELL	W 98-76	-7.5	W +14.5	169.5	O 174
Jan 8	@JAX	W 77-51	-4.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 128
Jan 10	@UNF	W 89-82	-11.5	L −4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@FGCU	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	@STET	W 87-81	-10.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsUNA	W 87-62	-12.5	W +12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WGA	L 66-74	-7.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsCARK	L 90-100	-5.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	@BELL	L 75-78	-5.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 5	vsJAX	W 93-84	-8.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 177
Feb 7	vsUNF	W 91-72	-15.5	W +3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	vsAPSU	L 87-95	-2.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 182
Feb 14	vsLIP	W 87-81	-3.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@UNA	W 85-78	-8.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsWGA	W 91-84	-11.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	@EKU	W 96-79	-2.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 175
Feb 28	@CARK	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsWGA	W 71-63	-8.5	L −0.5	164.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsAPSU	W 90-83	+2.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 173
Mar 8	vsCARK	W 98-93	+1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 191
Mar 20	vsPUR	L 71-104	+25.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

UVA

L 69-94

+0.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+18.5

SCST

W 102-78

+5.5

WAKE

L 73-111

−19.5

ARK

L 80-108

−4.5

AUB

L 65-106

−15.5

EKU

W 91-89

−2.5

BELL

W 98-76

+14.5

JAX

W 77-51

+21.5

UNF

W 89-82

−4.5

FGCU

W 85-74

+12.5

STET

W 87-81

−4.5

UNA

W 87-62

+12.5

WGA

L 66-74

−15.5

CARK

L 90-100

−15.5

BELL

L 75-78

−8.5

JAX

W 93-84

+0.5

UNF

W 91-72

+3.5

APSU

L 87-95

−10.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

−1.5

WGA

W 91-84

−4.5

EKU

W 96-79

+14.5

CARK

L 79-84

−2.5

WGA

W 71-63

−0.5

APSU

W 90-83

+9.5

CARK

W 98-93

+6.5

PUR

L 71-104

−7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

UVA

L 69-94

+2.5

GWEB

W 107-74

+19.5

SCST

W 102-78

+22.5

WAKE

L 73-111

+18.5

ARK

L 80-108

+18.5

AUB

L 65-106

−0.5

EKU

W 91-89

+15.5

BELL

W 98-76

+4.5

JAX

W 77-51

−26.5

UNF

W 89-82

−2.5

FGCU

W 85-74

−7.5

STET

W 87-81

+5.5

UNA

W 87-62

−13.5

WGA

L 66-74

−22.5

CARK

L 90-100

+31.5

BELL

L 75-78

−10.5

JAX

W 93-84

+30.5

UNF

W 91-72

−15.5

APSU

L 87-95

+20.5

LIP

W 87-81

+2.5

UNA

W 85-78

+6.5

WGA

W 91-84

+13.5

EKU

W 96-79

+9.5

CARK

L 79-84

−0.5

WGA

W 71-63

−30.5

APSU

W 90-83

+11.5

CARK

W 98-93

+33.5

PUR

L 71-104

+15.5

over 22under 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CCU71.8 #251

QUC84.4 #16

Points per possession

CCU1.03 #290

QUC1.19 #25

Pace (possessions)

CCU69.9 #121

QUC71.2 #65

Shooting

Effective FG%

CCU47.9 #314

QUC56.4 #15

3-point %

CCU33.5 #196

QUC35.7 #74

3-point attempt rate

CCU43.1 #113

QUC46.5 #38

Free throw rate

CCU32.3 #254

QUC35.4 #167

Possessions

Turnover rate

CCU15.3 #84

QUC14.8 #54

Offensive rebound rate

CCU26.9 #296

QUC30.2 #190

Assists per game

CCU9.9 #359

QUC16.0 #49

Defense

Points allowed

CCU73.5 #143

QUC83.8 #355

Points allowed per possession

CCU1.05 #88

QUC1.17 #346

Opponent effective FG%

CCU46.8 #18

QUC54.6 #319

Opponent 3-point %

CCU32.8 #105

QUC36.5 #325

Turnovers forced

CCU12.3 #364

QUC15.1 #276

Defensive rebound rate

CCU72.4 #52

QUC66.4 #308

Steals per game

CCU4.3 #360

QUC6.0 #238

Blocks per game

CCU3.2 #187

QUC2.9 #236

CCU		QUC
Scoring
71.8 #251	Points per game	84.4 #16
1.03 #290	Points per possession	1.19 #25
69.9 #121	Pace (possessions)	71.2 #65
Shooting
47.9 #314	Effective FG%	56.4 #15
33.5 #196	3-point %	35.7 #74
43.1 #113	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #38
32.3 #254	Free throw rate	35.4 #167
Possessions
15.3 #84	Turnover rate	14.8 #54
26.9 #296	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #190
9.9 #359	Assists per game	16.0 #49
Defense
73.5 #143	Points allowed	83.8 #355
1.05 #88	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #346
46.8 #18	Opponent effective FG%	54.6 #319
32.8 #105	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #325
12.3 #364	Turnovers forced	15.1 #276
72.4 #52	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #308
4.3 #360	Steals per game	6.0 #238
3.2 #187	Blocks per game	2.9 #236

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coastal

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern72–96
W@ James Madison69–68
W@ Georgia St76–71
Wvs Marshall79–75
Lvs James Madison65–67

A week or more of rest.

Queens University Royals

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue71–104
Wvs C Arkansas98–93
Wvs Austin Peay90–83
Wvs West Georgia71–63
L@ C Arkansas79–84

A week or more of rest.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Queens University Royals

What could decide it: QUC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Coastal

Queens University Royals

Matchup stats

Coastal

Queens University Royals