Ball State Cardinals at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETLiberty Arena (IN) · at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Ball State and Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
BALL	This season	USI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BALL 72–68 · win probability BALL 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

BALL 3, USI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BALLBig

USI offense vs BALL defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BALL has played the 236th-hardest schedule, USI the 362nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

BALLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, USI 17.1%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, USI 16.5%

USISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; USI 43.7 and allows 49.4

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), USI 69.0 (177th). Faster games mean more points

USISmall

Home court

USI at home. This season: USI 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away

BALLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, USI 0%. Transfers in: BALL 9, USI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

BALL offense vs USI defense

Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, USI 37.2. Allowed: BALL 32.1, USI 36.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, USI 31.4%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, USI 66.2%

Even

Three-pointers

BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 39.4% and 39.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BALL -3.8	—
Total	—	140.2	—
Projected score	—	BALL 72 · USI 68.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -2.4	—
1H total	65.6	—
1H projected score	BALL 34 · USI 31.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WWWWW	14-15	48%	6-9	—
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	2-9	—

Venue/role: BALL away; USI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UOUOO	9-20	31%	10-19
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ AKR	L65–78WU
Dec 5	vs EMU	L52–74LU
Dec 8	vs EVAN	L52–64LU

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ WGA	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ INST	L55–77LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ball State

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-20

31% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

W L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

W L L L L L W L W W L L L W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2031%

U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O U U U U U U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	@LAF	L 37-55	-1.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsLEM	W 96-85	+1.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 3	@EVAN	L 52-64	+6.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 9	vsSDST	L 64-68	+5.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 14	@CAM	L 64-69	+8.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 20	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+7.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUF	L 72-85	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 6	vsEMU	L 52-74	-1.5	L −23.5	137.5	U 126
Jan 10	@MASS	L 71-79	+10.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 13	@AKR	L 77-87	+20.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 16	vsOHIO	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 20	@CMU	W 68-67	-1.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIU	W 58-53	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 31	@TOL	L 55-73	+8.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	@BGSU	L 52-77	+11.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ULM	W 73-68	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	vsBUF	L 53-63	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 14	vsKENT	L 68-75	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@OHIO	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 126
Feb 20	vsAKR	L 65-78	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 24	vsMASS	W 74-73	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 147
Feb 28	@NIU	W 79-43	+1.5	W +37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	@WMU	W 74-71	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	vsCMU	W 85-69	-2.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

LAF

L 37-55

−19.5

LEM

W 96-85

+12.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−5.5

SDST

L 64-68

+1.5

CAM

L 64-69

+3.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−1.5

BUF

L 72-85

−6.5

EMU

L 52-74

−23.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+10.5

OHIO

W 76-71

+10.5

CMU

W 68-67

−0.5

NIU

W 58-53

−0.5

TOL

L 55-73

−9.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−13.5

ULM

W 73-68

+0.5

BUF

L 53-63

−11.5

KENT

L 68-75

+0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−2.5

AKR

L 65-78

+0.5

MASS

W 74-73

+4.5

NIU

W 79-43

+37.5

WMU

W 74-71

+4.5

CMU

W 85-69

+13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

LAF

L 37-55

−48.5

LEM

W 96-85

+40.5

EVAN

L 52-64

−20.5

SDST

L 64-68

−10.5

CAM

L 64-69

−12.5

M-OH

L 77-86

+15.5

BUF

L 72-85

+11.5

EMU

L 52-74

−11.5

MASS

L 71-79

+2.5

AKR

L 77-87

+11.5

OHIO

W 76-71

−0.5

CMU

W 68-67

−7.5

NIU

W 58-53

−30.5

TOL

L 55-73

−18.5

BGSU

L 52-77

−8.5

ULM

W 73-68

−2.5

BUF

L 53-63

−25.5

KENT

L 68-75

−0.5

OHIO

L 57-69

−19.5

AKR

L 65-78

−4.5

MASS

W 74-73

+3.5

NIU

W 79-43

−11.5

WMU

W 74-71

+6.5

CMU

W 85-69

+19.5

over 9under 20avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BALL66.1 #345

USI67.0 #333

Points per possession

BALL1.00 #325

USI0.97 #346

Pace (possessions)

BALL65.9 #317

USI69.0 #177

Shooting

Effective FG%

BALL47.0 #336

USI43.7 #363

3-point %

BALL31.4 #312

USI29.9 #345

3-point attempt rate

BALL39.4 #186

USI39.8 #178

Free throw rate

BALL31.6 #263

USI37.2 #123

Possessions

Turnover rate

BALL16.2 #151

USI17.1 #212

Offensive rebound rate

BALL27.1 #290

USI31.4 #145

Assists per game

BALL12.4 #259

USI9.7 #360

Defense

Points allowed

BALL71.4 #88

USI74.3 #165

Points allowed per possession

BALL1.09 #184

USI1.08 #165

Opponent effective FG%

BALL52.7 #253

USI49.4 #80

Opponent 3-point %

BALL34.8 #239

USI34.1 #193

Turnovers forced

BALL18.7 #60

USI16.5 #183

Defensive rebound rate

BALL69.0 #204

USI66.2 #315

Steals per game

BALL7.5 #88

USI6.2 #210

Blocks per game

BALL2.7 #286

USI4.2 #56

BALL		USI
Scoring
66.1 #345	Points per game	67.0 #333
1.00 #325	Points per possession	0.97 #346
65.9 #317	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #177
Shooting
47.0 #336	Effective FG%	43.7 #363
31.4 #312	3-point %	29.9 #345
39.4 #186	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #178
31.6 #263	Free throw rate	37.2 #123
Possessions
16.2 #151	Turnover rate	17.1 #212
27.1 #290	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #145
12.4 #259	Assists per game	9.7 #360
Defense
71.4 #88	Points allowed	74.3 #165
1.09 #184	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #165
52.7 #253	Opponent effective FG%	49.4 #80
34.8 #239	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #193
18.7 #60	Turnovers forced	16.5 #183
69.0 #204	Defensive rebound rate	66.2 #315
7.5 #88	Steals per game	6.2 #210
2.7 #286	Blocks per game	4.2 #56

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs C Michigan85–69
W@ W Michigan74–71
W@ N Illinois79–43
Wvs UMass74–73
Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

Ball State Cardinals at Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

What could decide it: BALL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Ball State

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Matchup stats

Ball State

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles