Fordham Rams at Harvard Crimson: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETLavietes Pavilion · at Harvard

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fordham and Harvard
FOR	This season	HARV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FOR 69–67 · win probability FOR 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

FOR 2, HARV 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FORBig

HARV offense vs FOR defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 71st, on the model’s ratings

FORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FOR 34.1%, HARV 26.8%. Defensive: FOR 73.2%, HARV 71.8%

HARVBig

Three-pointers

FOR hits 28.9% and allows 33.4%; HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 38.3% and 40.2% of their shots

HARVSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FOR 48.6 and allows 49.9; HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4

HARVSmall

Home court

HARV at home. This season: HARV 0-0 at home, FOR 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FOR 63%, HARV 81%. Transfers in: FOR 4, HARV 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

FOR offense vs HARV defense

Offense 119th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FOR 26.4, HARV 25.7. Allowed: FOR 30.3, HARV 26.6

Context

Schedule so far

FOR has played the 136th-hardest schedule, HARV the 153rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FOR 17.2%, HARV 17.5%. Forced: FOR 17.2%, HARV 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: FOR plays 64.8 a game (349th fastest), HARV 64.7 (350th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FOR -2.5	—
Total	—	135.9	—
Projected score	—	FOR 69.2 · HARV 66.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FOR -1.6	—
1H total	63.6	—
1H projected score	FOR 32.6 · HARV 31	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FOR WLLWW	16-13	55%	6-4	—
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	4-7	—

Venue/role: FOR away; HARV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FOR UOOUU	7-22	24%	14-15
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FOR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fordham

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs BU	No recent meeting
Dec 7	vs FDU	W75–54WU
Dec 10	vs BRY	W86–84WO

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ UNH	W86–75LO
Dec 4	@ DUKE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FOR 1–0 HARVFOR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FOR 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2022-23	HARV 60 @ FOR 68	FOR -2.5	FOR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fordham

29 games played

Straight up

14-15

48% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-22

24% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1548%

L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L W W L L W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L L W W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-2224%

U U U U O U O U U U U O U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNJIT	L 61-72	-14.5	L −25.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsWAG	W 63-61	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 124
Nov 14	@IONA	L 71-76	+5.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 20	vsLIU	W 69-53	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 29	vsUALB	W 88-68	-10.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 156
Nov 30	vsCOLG	L 62-72	+1.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsHC	L 69-70	-10.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 10	vsFDU	W 75-54	-11.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 129
Dec 13	vsMAN	W 82-53	-8.5	W +20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 22	vsNHVN	W 65-47	-13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 31	@DAY	L 56-63	+16.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 4	vsRICH	L 75-83	+2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	vsGMU	L 58-67	+5.5	L −3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	@SBU	W 81-77	+8.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@SLU	L 56-78	+17.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 134
Jan 17	vsDUQ	L 63-74	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 137
Jan 21	@DAV	L 63-68	+4.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 28	vsLAS	W 64-58	-5.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 122
Jan 31	@GW	W 79-65	+11.5	W +25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 3	vsVCU	L 59-63	+7.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Feb 7	vsSBU	L 67-70	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 10	@JOES	W 68-64	+3.5	W +7.5	135.5	U 132
Feb 14	@URI	W 70-66	+4.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 136
Feb 18	vsLUC	W 62-59	-8.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	vsDAV	W 63-59	+1.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 28	@VCU	L 63-82	+12.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 4	@LAS	L 84-87	-3.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 171
Mar 7	vsURI	W 61-49	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 110
Mar 12	vsGW	L 62-66	+7.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−25.5

WAG

W 63-61

−10.5

IONA

L 71-76

+0.5

LIU

W 69-53

+11.5

UALB

W 88-68

+9.5

COLG

L 62-72

−8.5

L 69-70

−11.5

FDU

W 75-54

+9.5

MAN

W 82-53

+20.5

NHVN

W 65-47

+4.5

DAY

L 56-63

+9.5

RICH

L 75-83

−5.5

GMU

L 58-67

−3.5

SBU

W 81-77

+12.5

SLU

L 56-78

−4.5

DUQ

L 63-74

−9.5

DAV

L 63-68

−0.5

LAS

W 64-58

+0.5

W 79-65

+25.5

VCU

L 59-63

+3.5

SBU

L 67-70

−1.5

JOES

W 68-64

+7.5

URI

W 70-66

+8.5

LUC

W 62-59

−5.5

DAV

W 63-59

+5.5

VCU

L 63-82

−6.5

LAS

L 84-87

−6.5

URI

W 61-49

+10.5

L 62-66

+3.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−14.5

WAG

W 63-61

−15.5

IONA

L 71-76

−10.5

LIU

W 69-53

−23.5

UALB

W 88-68

+12.5

COLG

L 62-72

−8.5

L 69-70

+0.5

FDU

W 75-54

−12.5

MAN

W 82-53

−12.5

NHVN

W 65-47

−15.5

DAY

L 56-63

−20.5

RICH

L 75-83

+15.5

GMU

L 58-67

−9.5

SBU

W 81-77

+15.5

SLU

L 56-78

−20.5

DUQ

L 63-74

−8.5

DAV

L 63-68

−4.5

LAS

W 64-58

−14.5

W 79-65

−6.5

VCU

L 59-63

−24.5

SBU

L 67-70

−4.5

JOES

W 68-64

−3.5

URI

W 70-66

+1.5

LUC

W 62-59

−14.5

DAV

W 63-59

−9.5

VCU

L 63-82

+0.5

LAS

L 84-87

+39.5

URI

W 61-49

−26.5

L 62-66

−16.5

over 7under 22avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Fordham 2, Harvard 2, even 1

FordhamBetterHarvard

G A. Lindsey TR17.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 79

Even

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G L. Patrick TR15 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 68

HARVSmall

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

F R. Schulte10.4 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 82

FORBig

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

F A. Jacobs7.2 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

HARVSmall

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

C J. Whitbourn8.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

FORSmall

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

FordhamBetterHarvard

FOR offense119th of 366 · -2.7

Even

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

FOR defense71st of 366 · +0.8

FORBig

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players

FORSmall

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.2 · 5 players

FORSmall

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestFOR betterHARV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fordham

Guards

A. Lindsey38 min · TRL. Patrick29 min · TRK. Odih5 min · TRJ. Laboy4 min · TRA. Crotty1 minM. Miller1 min

Forwards

R. Schulte31 minA. Jacobs29 minA. Bodija19 minR. Akhuar19 minF. Siaca BeyNew

Centers

J. Whitbourn24 minO. EssamNew

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FOR67.5 #323

HARV69.8 #290

Points per possession

FOR1.04 #262

HARV1.08 #184

Pace (possessions)

FOR64.8 #349

HARV64.7 #350

Shooting

Effective FG%

FOR48.6 #300

HARV53.2 #94

3-point %

FOR28.9 #356

HARV34.7 #135

3-point attempt rate

FOR38.3 #205

HARV40.2 #167

Free throw rate

FOR26.4 #354

HARV25.7 #359

Possessions

Turnover rate

FOR17.2 #219

HARV17.5 #236

Offensive rebound rate

FOR34.1 #64

HARV26.8 #302

Assists per game

FOR13.2 #200

HARV14.2 #129

Defense

Points allowed

FOR66.3 #17

HARV67.3 #22

Points allowed per possession

FOR1.02 #47

HARV1.04 #70

Opponent effective FG%

FOR49.9 #95

HARV50.4 #122

Opponent 3-point %

FOR33.4 #149

HARV32.6 #94

Turnovers forced

FOR17.2 #138

HARV17.1 #147

Defensive rebound rate

FOR73.2 #29

HARV71.8 #69

Steals per game

FOR7.0 #126

HARV7.1 #111

Blocks per game

FOR2.2 #335

HARV3.7 #109

FOR		HARV
Scoring
67.5 #323	Points per game	69.8 #290
1.04 #262	Points per possession	1.08 #184
64.8 #349	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #350
Shooting
48.6 #300	Effective FG%	53.2 #94
28.9 #356	3-point %	34.7 #135
38.3 #205	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #167
26.4 #354	Free throw rate	25.7 #359
Possessions
17.2 #219	Turnover rate	17.5 #236
34.1 #64	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #302
13.2 #200	Assists per game	14.2 #129
Defense
66.3 #17	Points allowed	67.3 #22
1.02 #47	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #70
49.9 #95	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #122
33.4 #149	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #94
17.2 #138	Turnovers forced	17.1 #147
73.2 #29	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #69
7.0 #126	Steals per game	7.1 #111
2.2 #335	Blocks per game	3.7 #109

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fordham

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs G Washington62–66
Wvs Rhode Island61–49
L@ La Salle84–87
L@ VCU63–82
Wvs Davidson63–59

A week or more of rest.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

Fordham Rams at Harvard Crimson

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fordham

Harvard

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Fordham

Harvard