1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. MRST @ GMU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Marist Red Foxes at George Mason Patriots

EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
#235MRSTMarist
@
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRSTThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 77–61 · win probability GMU 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 137.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

MRST 1, GMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GMUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRST 25.7, GMU 41.1. Allowed: MRST 37.6, GMU 28.9
GMUBig
MRST offense vs GMU defense
Offense 322nd of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MRST has played the 339th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MRSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRST 17.0%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: MRST 19.4%, GMU 15.5%
GMUSmall
Home court
GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, MRST 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRST 49.3 and allows 45.6; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRST 29.1%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: MRST 71.7%, GMU 71.7%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: MRST plays 66.8 a game (286th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
Even
GMU offense vs MRST defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 135th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
MRST hits 32.2% and allows 28.6%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 34.6% and 35.2% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRST 31%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: MRST 1, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GMU -15.8—
Total—137.6—
Projected score—MRST 60.9 · GMU 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -9.3—
1H total64.4—
1H projected scoreMRST 27.6 · GMU 36.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: Marist 1, George Mason 2, even 2
MaristBetterGeorge Mason
G J. Collins-Roberts7.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 27
GMUBig
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G J. Graham TR11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43
GMUSmall
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
F M. Parker5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
MRSTSmall
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
C T. Watson6.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
C J. Gabriel2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
MaristBetterGeorge Mason
MRST offense322nd of 366 · -10.5
GMUBig
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
MRST defense135th of 366 · -2.6
Even
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt-3.3 · 2 players
GMUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.0 · 3 players
GMUSmall
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMRST betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Marist
Guards
J. Collins-Roberts31 minJ. Graham28 min · TRJ. WilliamsNewC. SweeneyNewB. ArnoldNewD. ChessNew
Forwards
M. Parker15 minE. OnyiaNewL. RodriguezNew
Centers
T. Watson11 minJ. Gabriel7 minL. FranzNew
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRSTGMU
Scoring
68.9 #301Points per game72.9 #227
1.04 #276Points per possession1.13 #93
66.8 #286Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
49.3 #276Effective FG%52.7 #113
32.2 #2723-point %33.3 #214
34.6 #2853-point attempt rate35.2 #270
25.7 #360Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
17.0 #202Turnover rate15.8 #121
29.1 #233Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
15.0 #89Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
63.9 #4Points allowed68.0 #31
0.95 #3Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
45.6 #5Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
28.6 #2Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
19.4 #35Turnovers forced15.5 #254
71.7 #77Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
7.1 #116Steals per game5.0 #334
3.1 #200Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Marist

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack57–58
  • Wvs Quinnipiac77–75
  • Lvs Saint Peter's56–63
  • Wvs Sacred Heart65–63
  • W@ Manhattan84–70

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.