1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. SAC @ PRES
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Sacramento State Hornets at Presbyterian Blue Hose

Templeton Center · at Presbyterian
#196SACSacramento St
@
#183PRESPresbyterian
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SACThis seasonPRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PRES 77–73 · win probability PRES 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PRES has more of the edges

SAC 1, PRES 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SACBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SAC 14.1%, PRES 19.4%. Forced: SAC 17.1%, PRES 15.7%
PRESBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SAC 25.2%, PRES 33.1%. Defensive: SAC 66.6%, PRES 69.3%
PRESBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SAC 47.0 and allows 55.0; PRES 51.0 and allows 51.2
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SAC plays 72.6 a game (24th fastest), PRES 66.9 (283rd). Faster games mean more points
PRESSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SAC 42%, PRES 86%. Transfers in: SAC 6, PRES 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PRESSmall
Home court
PRES at home. This season: PRES 0-0 at home, SAC 0-0 away
Even
PRES offense vs SAC defense
Offense 222nd of 366 against a defense 262nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SAC 41.2, PRES 39.4. Allowed: SAC 36.2, PRES 37.1
Context
Schedule so far
SAC has played the 248th-hardest schedule, PRES the 272nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SAC offense vs PRES defense
Offense 146th of 366 against a defense 160th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
SAC hits 31.9% and allows 35.1%; PRES hits 31.6% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 35.6% and 28.0% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PRES -3.2—
Total—150.0—
Projected score—SAC 73.4 · PRES 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPRES -1.8—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreSAC 34.2 · PRES 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Sacramento St has the better starters

Position by position: Sacramento St 2, Presbyterian 1, even 2
Sacramento StBetterPresbyterian
G M. Williams18.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 56
Even
G C. Parrish14.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 56
G L. Hughes TR17.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
SACSmall
G T. Wilson11.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 52
G M. Wilson TR12.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.9 ast Score 76
No call
G E. Taylor5.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Not ranked
G A. Madi7.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 44
SACBig
G I. King3.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 2
F O. Grady TR9.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
PRESBig
F J. Peterson11 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
Sacramento StBetterPresbyterian
SAC offense146th of 366 · -4.4
Even
PRES defense160th of 366 · -3.5
SAC defense262nd of 366 · -6.8
Even
PRES offense222nd of 366 · -6.8
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
SACBig
Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 1 player
PRESBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
Bench-3.4 · 5 players
PRESSmall
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSAC betterPRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sacramento St
Guards
M. Williams36 minL. Hughes32 min · TRM. Wilson27 min · TRA. Madi24 minT. Glover14 minR. Robinson11 min
Forwards
O. Grady31 min · TRR. Tutic23 min · TRS. Ciani10 min · TRM. HuntNewG. AsimakopoulosNew
Centers
J. Das Chagas7 min · TR
Presbyterian
Guards
C. Parrish35 minT. Wilson32 minE. Taylor21 minI. King19 minK. Hudson11 minJ. Bowden8 min
Forwards
J. Peterson30 minC. Chiakwelu11 minA. AyelyineNewL. HackworthNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SACPRES
Scoring
75.9 #144Points per game70.0 #286
1.05 #258Points per possession1.05 #249
72.6 #24Pace (possessions)66.9 #283
Shooting
47.0 #337Effective FG%51.0 #196
31.9 #2843-point %31.6 #302
35.6 #2573-point attempt rate28.0 #360
41.2 #41Free throw rate39.4 #71
Possessions
14.1 #26Turnover rate19.4 #335
25.2 #336Offensive rebound rate33.1 #86
12.1 #275Assists per game12.4 #260
Defense
83.6 #352Points allowed73.1 #133
1.15 #327Points allowed per possession1.09 #192
55.0 #331Opponent effective FG%51.2 #170
35.1 #257Opponent 3-point %34.7 #235
17.1 #140Turnovers forced15.7 #237
66.6 #306Defensive rebound rate69.3 #188
7.5 #76Steals per game5.5 #303
2.7 #280Blocks per game4.5 #35
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sacramento St

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho45–68
  • Wvs Idaho St83–65
  • L@ Montana St61–82
  • L@ Montana73–81
  • Lvs Idaho80–86

A week or more of rest.

Presbyterian

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-10 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Winthrop71–73
  • Wvs Radford91–85
  • L@ Winthrop70–74
  • Lvs High Point73–79
  • L@ SC Upstate74–76

A week or more of rest.