1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. CIT @ HPU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

The Citadel Bulldogs at High Point Panthers

Qubein Center · at High Point
#339CITThe Citadel
@
#90HPUHigh Point
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CITThis seasonHPU
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 87–63 · win probability HPU 98%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 149.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HPU has more of the edges

CIT 0, HPU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HPUBig
HPU offense vs CIT defense
Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings
HPUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5
HPUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIT 16.3%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: CIT 14.8%, HPU 21.3%
HPUBig
CIT offense vs HPU defense
Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings
HPUBig
Three-pointers
CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 47.8% and 43.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CIT plays 66.1 a game (313th fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points
HPUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIT 30.0, HPU 40.8. Allowed: CIT 33.3, HPU 35.5
HPUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIT 27.9%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: CIT 68.5%, HPU 68.9%
Context
Schedule so far
CIT has played the 233rd-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HPUSmall
Home court
HPU at home. This season: HPU 0-0 at home, CIT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIT 18%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: CIT 6, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HPU -24.4—
Total—149.8—
Projected score—CIT 62.7 · HPU 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHPU -14.4—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreCIT 27.8 · HPU 42.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

High Point has the better starters

Position by position: The Citadel 0, High Point 4, even 1
The CitadelBetterHigh Point
G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13
HPUBig
G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91
G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60
G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17
HPUBig
G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64
G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19
HPUBig
F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32
HPUBig
F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85
The CitadelBetterHigh Point
CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7
HPUBig
HPU defense127th of 366 · -2.3
CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1
HPUBig
HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2
Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players
HPUBig
Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
HPUBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
HPUBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCIT betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
The Citadel
Guards
E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min
Forwards
R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min
Centers
Y. AnsongNew
High Point
Guards
J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR
Forwards
I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CITHPU
Scoring
68.3 #309Points per game86.4 #9
1.03 #283Points per possession1.20 #12
66.1 #313Pace (possessions)71.7 #47
Shooting
49.5 #265Effective FG%54.5 #51
32.0 #2833-point %34.2 #161
47.8 #263-point attempt rate43.6 #98
30.0 #309Free throw rate40.8 #50
Possessions
16.3 #156Turnover rate12.8 #5
27.9 #270Offensive rebound rate31.8 #131
12.2 #272Assists per game15.4 #74
Defense
78.9 #293Points allowed72.8 #128
1.20 #357Points allowed per possession1.01 #38
57.5 #361Opponent effective FG%50.5 #126
36.6 #335Opponent 3-point %32.6 #97
14.8 #306Turnovers forced21.3 #8
68.5 #227Defensive rebound rate68.9 #207
5.2 #318Steals per game10.1 #2
2.5 #304Blocks per game3.6 #119
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU76–83
  • Wvs Chattanooga88–85
  • W@ Wofford93–90
  • L@ Furman51–72
  • Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas88–94
  • Wvs Wisconsin83–82
  • Wvs Winthrop91–76
  • Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.