Harvard Crimson at New Hampshire Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 6:00 PM ETLundholm Gymnasium · at New Hampshire

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Harvard and New Hampshire
HARV	This season	UNH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HARV 73–66 · win probability HARV 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

HARV 5, UNH 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HARVBig

UNH offense vs HARV defense

Offense 300th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

HARVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4; UNH 46.7 and allows 53.5

HARVBig

Three-pointers

HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%; UNH hits 30.5% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 40.2% and 43.1% of their shots

HARVSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HARV 25.7, UNH 28.5. Allowed: HARV 26.6, UNH 35.8

Context

Schedule so far

HARV has played the 153rd-hardest schedule, UNH the 237th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: HARV plays 64.7 a game (350th fastest), UNH 68.9 (186th). Faster games mean more points

HARVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HARV 81%, UNH 47%. Transfers in: HARV 0, UNH 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNHSmall

Home court

UNH at home. This season: UNH 0-0 at home, HARV 0-0 away

Even

HARV offense vs UNH defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 255th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HARV 26.8%, UNH 25.7%. Defensive: HARV 71.8%, UNH 73.1%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HARV 17.5%, UNH 16.5%. Forced: HARV 17.1%, UNH 15.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HARV -7.0	—
Total	—	139.0	—
Projected score	—	HARV 73 · UNH 66

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -4.3	—
1H total	65.1	—
1H projected score	HARV 34.7 · UNH 30.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	10-5	—
UNH LLLWL	12-16	43%	4-7	—

Venue/role: HARV away; UNH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12
UNH UUOOO	15-13	54%	7-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
UNH	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	@ DUKE	No recent meeting

New Hampshire

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ BU	W88–82WO
Dec 9	@ MARQ	L70–75WO
Dec 12	vs DART	L68–69WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 2–0 UNHHARV leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · HARV has won the last 2 meetings · HARV 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2025-26	UNH 75 @ HARV 86	HARV -15.5	UNH W
Dec 8, 2024-25	HARV 72 @ UNH 62	UNH +7.5	HARV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Hampshire

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L W W W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1643%

L W W L L W W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1354%

U O U O U U U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	@PROV	L 66-98	+29.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsBRWN	L 47-59	+5.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 106
Nov 30	@FAIR	L 68-72	+9.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 3	@DART	L 68-69	+8.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsBU	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 17	vsSTO	W 59-58	-3.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 117
Dec 21	@SLU	L 79-93	+34.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 172
Dec 30	@NEB	L 55-86	+31.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUVM	L 61-80	+7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	@NJIT	L 76-80	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 156
Jan 10	@UMBC	L 74-75	+6.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 19	@ME	W 65-48	+1.5	W +18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsBING	W 88-82	-9.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 170
Jan 24	vsUALB	W 80-72	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsUML	W 66-61	-3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 31	@BRY	L 84-92	+1.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 176
Feb 7	@UVM	L 57-80	+9.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	vsNJIT	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsUMBC	L 63-85	+2.5	L −19.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 19	@UML	L 56-78	+3.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsME	L 58-61	-3.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@BING	L 63-65	-2.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 28	@UALB	L 61-84	+3.5	L −19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	vsBRY	W 88-83	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 171
Mar 7	@UMBC	L 69-84	+12.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

PROV

L 66-98

−2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−6.5

FAIR

L 68-72

+5.5

DART

L 68-69

+7.5

W 88-82

+11.5

STO

W 59-58

−2.5

SLU

L 79-93

+20.5

NEB

L 55-86

+0.5

UVM

L 61-80

−11.5

NJIT

L 76-80

−6.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

+18.5

BING

W 88-82

−3.5

UALB

W 80-72

+5.5

UML

W 66-61

+1.5

BRY

L 84-92

−6.5

UVM

L 57-80

−13.5

NJIT

L 70-76

−8.5

UMBC

L 63-85

−19.5

UML

L 56-78

−18.5

L 58-61

−6.5

BING

L 63-65

−4.5

UALB

L 61-84

−19.5

BRY

W 88-83

+2.5

UMBC

L 69-84

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

PROV

L 66-98

+2.5

BRWN

L 47-59

−30.5

FAIR

L 68-72

−7.5

DART

L 68-69

−10.5

W 88-82

+35.5

STO

W 59-58

−21.5

SLU

L 79-93

+14.5

NEB

L 55-86

−5.5

UVM

L 61-80

+1.5

NJIT

L 76-80

+18.5

UMBC

L 74-75

+5.5

W 65-48

−16.5

BING

W 88-82

+34.5

UALB

W 80-72

+14.5

UML

W 66-61

−19.5

BRY

L 84-92

+44.5

UVM

L 57-80

−1.5

NJIT

L 70-76

+0.5

UMBC

L 63-85

+1.5

UML

L 56-78

−17.5

L 58-61

−16.5

BING

L 63-65

−13.5

UALB

L 61-84

+6.5

BRY

W 88-83

+35.5

UMBC

L 69-84

+10.5

over 15under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard has the better starters

Position by position: Harvard 2, New Hampshire 0, even 3

HarvardBetterNew Hampshire

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

HARVBig

G T. Bike7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

HARVBig

G E. Oliver-Bush TR3.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

Even

F D. Poser6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Even

F J. Squire5.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

Even

F D. McKenna TR3.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 47

HarvardBetterNew Hampshire

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

Even

UNH defense255th of 366 · -6.7

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

HARVBig

UNH offense300th of 366 · -9.3

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

HARVSmall

Backcourt-3.5 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-4.5 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestHARV betterUNH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

New Hampshire

Guards

T. Bike24 minE. Oliver-Bush16 min · TRM. Blackley2 minA. SquireNewJ. ColemanNewJ. FaumuinaNew

Forwards

D. Poser29 minJ. Squire27 minD. McKenna11 min · TRR. Zan8 min · TRJ. O'Neill6 minK. MyersNew

Centers

G. Xanthopoulos6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HARV69.8 #290

UNH66.6 #339

Points per possession

HARV1.08 #184

UNH0.96 #347

Pace (possessions)

HARV64.7 #350

UNH68.9 #186

Shooting

Effective FG%

HARV53.2 #94

UNH46.7 #344

3-point %

HARV34.7 #135

UNH30.5 #333

3-point attempt rate

HARV40.2 #167

UNH43.1 #110

Free throw rate

HARV25.7 #359

UNH28.5 #338

Possessions

Turnover rate

HARV17.5 #236

UNH16.5 #166

Offensive rebound rate

HARV26.8 #302

UNH25.7 #329

Assists per game

HARV14.2 #129

UNH10.6 #348

Defense

Points allowed

HARV67.3 #22

UNH76.4 #227

Points allowed per possession

HARV1.04 #70

UNH1.11 #247

Opponent effective FG%

HARV50.4 #122

UNH53.5 #282

Opponent 3-point %

HARV32.6 #94

UNH34.3 #204

Turnovers forced

HARV17.1 #147

UNH15.8 #227

Defensive rebound rate

HARV71.8 #69

UNH73.1 #32

Steals per game

HARV7.1 #111

UNH6.1 #222

Blocks per game

HARV3.7 #109

UNH2.0 #345

HARV		UNH
Scoring
69.8 #290	Points per game	66.6 #339
1.08 #184	Points per possession	0.96 #347
64.7 #350	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #186
Shooting
53.2 #94	Effective FG%	46.7 #344
34.7 #135	3-point %	30.5 #333
40.2 #167	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #110
25.7 #359	Free throw rate	28.5 #338
Possessions
17.5 #236	Turnover rate	16.5 #166
26.8 #302	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #329
14.2 #129	Assists per game	10.6 #348
Defense
67.3 #22	Points allowed	76.4 #227
1.04 #70	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #247
50.4 #122	Opponent effective FG%	53.5 #282
32.6 #94	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #204
17.1 #147	Turnovers forced	15.8 #227
71.8 #69	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #32
7.1 #111	Steals per game	6.1 #222
3.7 #109	Blocks per game	2.0 #345

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

New Hampshire

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC69–84
Wvs Bryant88–83
L@ UAlbany61–84
L@ Binghamton63–65
Lvs Maine58–61

A week or more of rest.

Harvard Crimson at New Hampshire Wildcats

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

New Hampshire

Harvard has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Harvard

New Hampshire