Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 6:30 PM ETBreslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Minnesota and Michigan St
MINN	This season	MSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 78–59 · win probability MSU 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

MINN 1, MSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MINN 26.8%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: MINN 70.5%, MSU 77.6%

MSUBig

MINN offense vs MSU defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

MSUBig

Three-pointers

MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 47.1% and 36.4% of their shots

MINNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MINN 16.6%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: MINN 16.8%, MSU 14.9%

MSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9

Context

Schedule so far

MINN has played the 71st-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSUSmall

Home court

MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, MINN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: MINN plays 63.6 a game (362nd fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MINN 35.8, MSU 35.9. Allowed: MINN 26.9, MSU 30.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MINN 66%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: MINN 5, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

MSU offense vs MINN defense

Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSU -18.8	—
Total	—	137.4	—
Projected score	—	MINN 59.3 · MSU 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSU -11.1	—
1H total	64.3	—
1H projected score	MINN 26.6 · MSU 37.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	5-6	—
MSU WLWWL	18-17	51%	7-10	—

Venue/role: MINN away; MSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18
MSU OOOUU	16-19	46%	27-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs ILL	L67–77WO
Dec 12	vs SMU	No recent meeting

Michigan St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs DRKE	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ MD	W91–48WU
Dec 12	vs MRMK	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

MINN 2–6 MSUMSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MINN 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2025-26	MSU 73 @ MINN 76	MINN +8.5	MINN W
Jan 28, 2024-25	MINN 51 @ MSU 73	MSU -14.5	MSU W
Dec 4, 2024-25	MSU 90 @ MINN 72	MINN +4.5	MSU W
Mar 14, 2023-24	MINN 67 vs MSU 77	MSU -6.5	MSU W
Feb 6, 2023-24	MSU 56 @ MINN 59	MINN +3.5	MINN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Michigan St

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-19

46% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1751%

L W L W L W W W L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L W L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1946%

O U U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 25	vsECU	W 89-56	-19.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsUNC	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	vsIOWA	W 71-52	-5.5	W +13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsDUKE	L 60-66	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 13	@PSU	W 76-72	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 16	vsTOL	W 92-69	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsOAK	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	vsCOR	W 114-97	-23.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 2	@NEB	L 56-58	+2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	vsUSC	W 80-51	-11.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 8	vsNU	W 76-66	-13.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 13	vsIU	W 81-60	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	@WASH	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 20	@ORE	W 68-52	-10.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 24	vsMD	W 91-48	-18.5	W +24.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 27	@RUTG	W 88-79	-14.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 167
Jan 30	vsMICH	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 154
Feb 4	@MINN	L 73-76	-8.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 7	vsILL	W 85-82	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 13	@WIS	L 71-92	-1.5	L −22.5	149.5	O 163
Feb 17	vsUCLA	W 82-59	-8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 22	vsOSU	W 66-60	-10.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 126
Feb 26	@PUR	W 76-74	+5.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@IU	W 77-64	-2.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 5	vsRUTG	W 91-87	-20.5	L −16.5	141.5	O 178
Mar 8	@MICH	L 80-90	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsUCLA	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsNDSU	W 92-67	-16.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 159
Mar 21	vsLOU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 27	vsCONN	L 63-67	+2.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

ECU

W 89-56

+13.5

UNC

W 74-58

+14.5

IOWA

W 71-52

+13.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−4.5

PSU

W 76-72

−8.5

TOL

W 92-69

−0.5

OAK

W 79-70

−10.5

COR

W 114-97

−6.5

NEB

L 56-58

+0.5

USC

W 80-51

+17.5

W 76-66

−3.5

W 81-60

+14.5

WASH

W 80-63

+13.5

ORE

W 68-52

+5.5

W 91-48

+24.5

RUTG

W 88-79

−5.5

MICH

L 71-83

−9.5

MINN

L 73-76

−11.5

ILL

W 85-82

+1.5

WIS

L 71-92

−22.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+14.5

OSU

W 66-60

−4.5

PUR

W 76-74

+7.5

W 77-64

+10.5

RUTG

W 91-87

−16.5

MICH

L 80-90

+0.5

UCLA

L 84-88

−9.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+8.5

LOU

W 77-69

+2.5

CONN

L 63-67

−1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

ECU

W 89-56

+4.5

UNC

W 74-58

−20.5

IOWA

W 71-52

−10.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−15.5

PSU

W 76-72

+2.5

TOL

W 92-69

+10.5

OAK

W 79-70

−6.5

COR

W 114-97

+50.5

NEB

L 56-58

−32.5

USC

W 80-51

−20.5

W 76-66

−1.5

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 80-63

−2.5

ORE

W 68-52

−19.5

W 91-48

−2.5

RUTG

W 88-79

+28.5

MICH

L 71-83

+4.5

MINN

L 73-76

+12.5

ILL

W 85-82

+24.5

WIS

L 71-92

+13.5

UCLA

W 82-59

+1.5

OSU

W 66-60

−20.5

PUR

W 76-74

+6.5

W 77-64

−3.5

RUTG

W 91-87

+36.5

MICH

L 80-90

+17.5

UCLA

L 84-88

+30.5

NDSU

W 92-67

+14.5

LOU

W 77-69

−5.5

CONN

L 63-67

−6.5

over 16under 19avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Minnesota 1, Michigan St 4, even 0

MinnesotaBetterMichigan St

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

MSUBig

G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

MSUSmall

G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

MSUSmall

F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

MINNSmall

F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

MSUSmall

C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80

MinnesotaBetterMichigan St

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

MSUSmall

MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

Even

MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

MSUBig

Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

MSUSmall

Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

MSUBig

Bench+0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestMINN betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

Michigan St

Guards

J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew

Forwards

C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min

Centers

A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MINN69.4 #294

MSU78.8 #84

Points per possession

MINN1.10 #147

MSU1.17 #40

Pace (possessions)

MINN63.6 #362

MSU67.3 #264

Shooting

Effective FG%

MINN53.9 #69

MSU53.8 #72

3-point %

MINN34.1 #164

MSU36.3 #47

3-point attempt rate

MINN47.1 #31

MSU36.4 #241

Free throw rate

MINN35.8 #159

MSU35.9 #157

Possessions

Turnover rate

MINN16.6 #170

MSU17.1 #217

Offensive rebound rate

MINN26.8 #304

MSU37.8 #10

Assists per game

MINN17.0 #25

MSU18.6 #4

Defense

Points allowed

MINN68.5 #38

MSU68.3 #37

Points allowed per possession

MINN1.07 #139

MSU1.02 #40

Opponent effective FG%

MINN51.9 #207

MSU48.9 #61

Opponent 3-point %

MINN34.6 #229

MSU33.0 #119

Turnovers forced

MINN16.8 #168

MSU14.9 #296

Defensive rebound rate

MINN70.5 #137

MSU77.6 #1

Steals per game

MINN6.3 #197

MSU5.1 #328

Blocks per game

MINN2.7 #284

MSU4.1 #59

MINN		MSU
Scoring
69.4 #294	Points per game	78.8 #84
1.10 #147	Points per possession	1.17 #40
63.6 #362	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #264
Shooting
53.9 #69	Effective FG%	53.8 #72
34.1 #164	3-point %	36.3 #47
47.1 #31	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #241
35.8 #159	Free throw rate	35.9 #157
Possessions
16.6 #170	Turnover rate	17.1 #217
26.8 #304	Offensive rebound rate	37.8 #10
17.0 #25	Assists per game	18.6 #4
Defense
68.5 #38	Points allowed	68.3 #37
1.07 #139	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #40
51.9 #207	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #61
34.6 #229	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #119
16.8 #168	Turnovers forced	14.9 #296
70.5 #137	Defensive rebound rate	77.6 #1
6.3 #197	Steals per game	5.1 #328
2.7 #284	Blocks per game	4.1 #59

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn63–67
Wvs Louisville77–69
Wvs N Dakota St92–67
Lvs UCLA84–88
L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Minnesota

Michigan St

Michigan St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Minnesota

Michigan St