1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. DEN @ AF
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Denver Pioneers at Air Force Falcons

Clune Arena · at Air Force
#263DENDenver
@
#220AFAir Force
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DENThis seasonAF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AF 76–73 · win probability AF 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DEN 3, AF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DENBig
Three-pointers
DEN hits 36.8% and allows 36.7%; AF hits 30.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 38.6% and 41.8% of their shots
AFBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DEN 27%, AF 100%. Transfers in: DEN 6, AF 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
DEN has played the 249th-hardest schedule, AF the 119th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DENBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DEN 14.2%, AF 21.9%. Forced: DEN 13.0%, AF 15.1%
DENSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DEN 53.6 and allows 56.0; AF 48.9 and allows 56.4
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: DEN plays 69.4 a game (151st fastest), AF 67.4 (259th). Faster games mean more points
AFSmall
Home court
AF at home. This season: AF 0-0 at home, DEN 0-0 away
AFSmall
AF offense vs DEN defense
Offense 290th of 366 against a defense 337th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DEN 29.8%, AF 21.4%. Defensive: DEN 67.2%, AF 68.7%
Even
DEN offense vs AF defense
Offense 184th of 366 against a defense 149th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DEN 34.1, AF 35.1. Allowed: DEN 36.8, AF 36.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AF -3.2—
Total—148.3—
Projected score—DEN 72.5 · AF 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAF -1.8—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreDEN 33.8 · AF 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Air Force has the better starters

Position by position: Denver 0, Air Force 1, even 4
DenverBetterAir Force
G C. Johnson19.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
Even
G K. Sanders12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 77
G K. Martin TR5.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24
Even
G E. Greenberg6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 18
G C. Hyland TR5 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 20
Even
F L. Hobin11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
F J. Rogers TR5.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 27
Even
F E. Robinson7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 39
F S. Wysocki5.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 14
AFBig
F C. Walker10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 82
DenverBetterAir Force
DEN offense184th of 366 · -5.7
Even
AF defense149th of 366 · -3.3
DEN defense337th of 366 · -8.9
Even
AF offense290th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
AFSmall
Frontcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
DENBig
Bench-7.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDEN betterAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Denver
Guards
C. Johnson36 minK. Martin16 min · TRC. Hyland15 min · TRT. Cady11 min · TRL. ThreattNewJ. NelsonNew
Forwards
J. Rogers27 min · TRS. Wysocki19 minS. Mahoney5 min · TRH. BatesNewC. DimmockNewO. Wickstrom StumerNew
Centers
B. Mbengue9 min · TR
Air Force
Guards
K. Sanders30 minE. Greenberg27 minA. Patterson14 minJ. Hinds12 minE. Taite2 minT. KeeneNew
Forwards
L. Hobin29 minE. Robinson28 minC. Walker22 minR. Dering14 minK. Gilles13 minB. Martin5 min
Centers
W. Celichowski21 minM. CaslaruNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DENAF
Scoring
80.3 #61Points per game61.5 #362
1.16 #53Points per possession0.91 #363
69.4 #151Pace (possessions)67.4 #259
Shooting
53.6 #79Effective FG%48.9 #292
36.8 #323-point %30.6 #332
38.6 #1993-point attempt rate41.8 #139
34.1 #203Free throw rate35.1 #174
Possessions
14.2 #30Turnover rate21.9 #362
29.8 #213Offensive rebound rate21.4 #360
11.2 #327Assists per game12.2 #273
Defense
84.0 #357Points allowed79.9 #316
1.21 #360Points allowed per possession1.19 #352
56.0 #344Opponent effective FG%56.4 #350
36.7 #338Opponent 3-point %37.6 #352
13.0 #355Turnovers forced15.1 #280
67.2 #291Defensive rebound rate68.7 #215
4.5 #356Steals per game5.6 #281
1.9 #348Blocks per game2.4 #316
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Denver

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Dakota67–83
  • L@ Oral Roberts80–102
  • Wvs St Thomas82–80
  • Wvs South Dakota90–70
  • L@ Omaha76–83

A week or more of rest.

Air Force

3-29 in 2025-26 overall · 0-21 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada45–80
  • L@ Nevada59–74
  • Lvs Grand Canyon60–86
  • L@ Wyoming62–66
  • Lvs San José St80–86

A week or more of rest.