1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. PORT @ UCD
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Portland Pilots at UC Davis Aggies

University Credit Union Center · at UC Davis
#169PORTPortland
@
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORTThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 75–73 · win probability UCD 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

PORT 0, UCD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCDBig
Three-pointers
PORT hits 29.9% and allows 36.1%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 35.4% and 43.5% of their shots
UCDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PORT 19.6%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: PORT 17.0%, UCD 19.8%
Context
Schedule so far
PORT has played the 124th-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCDSmall
Home court
UCD at home. This season: UCD 0-0 at home, PORT 0-0 away
UCDSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PORT 51.2 and allows 52.7; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: PORT plays 70.2 a game (106th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PORT 41%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: PORT 4, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PORT 28.1%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: PORT 67.5%, UCD 69.5%
Even
PORT offense vs UCD defense
Offense 156th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PORT 34.4, UCD 40.5. Allowed: PORT 32.6, UCD 39.1
Even
UCD offense vs PORT defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 202nd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCD -2.3—
Total—148.0—
Projected score—PORT 72.9 · UCD 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCD -1.2—
1H total69.2—
1H projected scorePORT 34 · UCD 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Portland has the better starters

Position by position: Portland 2, UC Davis 1, even 2
PortlandBetterUC Davis
G J. Olvera TR13.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 51
Even
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G K. Isaac TR5 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
UCDBig
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
G D. Censori-Hercules3.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 22
Even
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F J. O'Donnell9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 60
PORTSmall
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F T. George11.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
PORTBig
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
PortlandBetterUC Davis
PORT offense156th of 366 · -4.7
Even
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
PORT defense202nd of 366 · -5.0
Even
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
UCDBig
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
PORTBig
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
PORTSmall
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPORT betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Portland
Guards
J. Olvera29 min · TRK. Isaac24 min · TRD. Censori-Hercules21 minR. Parker19 minH. Adam15 min · TRR. NanceNew
Forwards
J. O'Donnell23 minT. George20 minV. Perkovic7 min · TRO. SukurNewH. SewellNew
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORTUCD
Scoring
72.1 #238Points per game76.1 #139
1.02 #299Points per possession1.06 #234
70.2 #106Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
51.2 #188Effective FG%51.8 #157
29.9 #3443-point %34.4 #149
35.4 #2633-point attempt rate43.5 #102
34.4 #197Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
19.6 #342Turnover rate17.9 #267
28.1 #266Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
15.9 #51Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
78.1 #271Points allowed76.0 #217
1.11 #258Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
52.7 #255Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
36.1 #308Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
17.0 #148Turnovers forced19.8 #29
67.5 #281Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.8 #251Steals per game7.5 #81
2.9 #246Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Portland

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Francisco65–82
  • Wvs Washington St74–68
  • Wvs Pepperdine77–68
  • Wvs San Diego87–74
  • L@ Gonzaga48–89

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.