Brown Bears at Bryant Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 6:00 PM ETChace Athletic Center · at Bryant

#156BRWNBrown

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Brown and Bryant
BRWN	This season	BRY
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRWN 73–67 · win probability BRWN 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

BRWN 5, BRY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BRWNBig

BRY offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 306th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

BRWNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRWN 19.4%, BRY 20.2%. Forced: BRWN 18.8%, BRY 14.6%

BRWNBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRWN 100%, BRY 29%. Transfers in: BRWN 0, BRY 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

BRWN has played the 176th-hardest schedule, BRY the 261st. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRWNSmall

Three-pointers

BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%; BRY hits 30.0% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 36.3% and 47.9% of their shots

BRYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRWN 28.1, BRY 29.4. Allowed: BRWN 37.6, BRY 33.5

BRWNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3; BRY 46.9 and allows 52.7

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BRWN plays 68.0 a game (229th fastest), BRY 65.2 (338th). Faster games mean more points

BRYSmall

Home court

BRY at home. This season: BRY 0-0 at home, BRWN 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRWN 29.0%, BRY 27.7%. Defensive: BRWN 70.0%, BRY 69.0%

Even

BRWN offense vs BRY defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 254th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BRWN -5.6	—
Total	—	139.6	—
Projected score	—	BRWN 72.6 · BRY 67

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -3.5	—
1H total	65.4	—
1H projected score	BRWN 34.4 · BRY 31	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	8-5	—
BRY LLWLL	11-18	38%	6-5	—

Venue/role: BRWN away; BRY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18
BRY OUUOO	13-16	45%	7-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BRY	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs CCSU	W59–51WU

Bryant

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ UK	No recent meeting
Dec 10	@ FOR	L84–86LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BRWN 3–2 BRYBRWN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · BRWN has won the last 2 meetings · BRWN 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2025-26	BRY 56 @ BRWN 75	BRWN -6.5	BRWN W
Dec 6, 2024-25	BRWN 76 @ BRY 75	BRY -5.5	BRWN W
Dec 1, 2023-24	BRY 69 @ BRWN 66	BRWN -4.5	BRY W
Dec 2, 2022-23	BRWN 72 @ BRY 60	BRY -11.5	BRWN W
Nov 26, 2021-22	BRY 65 @ BRWN 59	BRWN -2	BRY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bryant

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L W L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L W L W W W W L W L L W L L W L L L W L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1645%

U U O U U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U O U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SIE	L 66-82	+13.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@GT	L 45-74	+15.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 12	vsDART	W 82-75	-1.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	@VAL	L 50-68	+6.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@VT	L 61-78	+24.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 23	@CONN	L 49-72	+36.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 29	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 2	vsSTO	W 77-65	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 142
Dec 5	@BRWN	L 56-75	+6.5	L −12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 10	@IONA	L 63-69	+8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 132
Dec 13	vsMRST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 156
Dec 22	@HPU	L 47-93	+19.5	L −26.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 3	@ME	W 56-51	-1.5	W +3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	vsUML	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 10	@UALB	L 46-71	+3.5	L −21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsUMBC	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 153
Jan 19	@NJIT	L 55-79	+1.5	L −22.5	132.5	O 134
Jan 24	vsUVM	L 52-62	+8.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	@BING	L 60-63	-2.5	L −5.5	130.5	U 123
Jan 31	vsUNH	W 92-84	-1.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 176
Feb 5	vsUALB	L 63-65	-1.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsME	W 73-67	-2.5	W +3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	@UML	L 69-88	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 14	@UVM	L 63-90	+13.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	vsBING	L 67-79	-4.5	L −16.5	134.5	O 146
Feb 26	@UMBC	L 58-70	+11.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Feb 28	vsNJIT	W 69-52	+1.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 121
Mar 3	@UNH	L 83-88	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 171
Mar 7	@UVM	L 57-77	+11.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−2.5

L 45-74

−13.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−11.5

L 61-78

+7.5

CONN

L 49-72

+13.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

STO

W 77-65

+5.5

BRWN

L 56-75

−12.5

IONA

L 63-69

+2.5

MRST

L 74-82

−6.5

HPU

L 47-93

−26.5

W 56-51

+3.5

UML

L 63-77

−16.5

UALB

L 46-71

−21.5

UMBC

W 79-74

+6.5

NJIT

L 55-79

−22.5

UVM

L 52-62

−1.5

BING

L 60-63

−5.5

UNH

W 92-84

+6.5

UALB

L 63-65

−3.5

W 73-67

+3.5

UML

L 69-88

−14.5

UVM

L 63-90

−13.5

BING

L 67-79

−16.5

UMBC

L 58-70

−0.5

NJIT

W 69-52

+18.5

UNH

L 83-88

−2.5

UVM

L 57-77

−8.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−0.5

L 45-74

−19.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−25.5

L 61-78

−12.5

CONN

L 49-72

−26.5

HARV

L 53-56

−28.5

STO

W 77-65

+7.5

BRWN

L 56-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−14.5

MRST

L 74-82

+24.5

HPU

L 47-93

−13.5

W 56-51

−18.5

UML

L 63-77

−3.5

UALB

L 46-71

−19.5

UMBC

W 79-74

+17.5

NJIT

L 55-79

+1.5

UVM

L 52-62

−19.5

BING

L 60-63

−7.5

UNH

W 92-84

+44.5

UALB

L 63-65

−5.5

W 73-67

+11.5

UML

L 69-88

+15.5

UVM

L 63-90

+19.5

BING

L 67-79

+11.5

UMBC

L 58-70

−10.5

NJIT

W 69-52

−17.5

UNH

L 83-88

+35.5

UVM

L 57-77

+3.5

over 13under 16avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Brown 1, Bryant 1, even 3

BrownBetterBryant

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

BRWNSmall

G T. Tabales9 pts · 2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 20

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

No call

G F. Vassalluzzo0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

Even

F A. Pasha TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 39

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

BRYBig

F K. Harvey10.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 64

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

No call

F E. Chatfield TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

BrownBetterBryant

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

Even

BRY defense254th of 366 · -6.6

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

BRWNBig

BRY offense306th of 366 · -9.5

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

BRYBig

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

BRWNSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

BRYSmall

Bench-0.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBRWN betterBRY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

Bryant

Guards

T. Tabales28 minF. Vassalluzzo1 minJ. Sepe1 minM. DeOrsey1 minR. WoernerNew

Forwards

A. Pasha33 min · TRK. Harvey27 minE. Chatfield13 min · TRO. Nnani1 min · TRD. ThompsonNewC. LyonsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRWN67.2 #330

BRY63.0 #358

Points per possession

BRWN0.98 #338

BRY0.96 #351

Pace (possessions)

BRWN68.0 #229

BRY65.2 #338

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRWN48.6 #299

BRY46.9 #340

3-point %

BRWN30.3 #338

BRY30.0 #343

3-point attempt rate

BRWN36.3 #244

BRY47.9 #25

Free throw rate

BRWN28.1 #342

BRY29.4 #322

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRWN19.4 #334

BRY20.2 #351

Offensive rebound rate

BRWN29.0 #236

BRY27.7 #276

Assists per game

BRWN14.8 #99

BRY11.4 #314

Defense

Points allowed

BRWN72.4 #115

BRY73.3 #138

Points allowed per possession

BRWN1.07 #134

BRY1.13 #283

Opponent effective FG%

BRWN51.3 #176

BRY52.7 #257

Opponent 3-point %

BRWN33.5 #157

BRY36.3 #320

Turnovers forced

BRWN18.8 #57

BRY14.6 #313

Defensive rebound rate

BRWN70.0 #164

BRY69.0 #203

Steals per game

BRWN7.5 #82

BRY5.9 #250

Blocks per game

BRWN3.8 #104

BRY3.9 #88

BRWN		BRY
Scoring
67.2 #330	Points per game	63.0 #358
0.98 #338	Points per possession	0.96 #351
68.0 #229	Pace (possessions)	65.2 #338
Shooting
48.6 #299	Effective FG%	46.9 #340
30.3 #338	3-point %	30.0 #343
36.3 #244	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #25
28.1 #342	Free throw rate	29.4 #322
Possessions
19.4 #334	Turnover rate	20.2 #351
29.0 #236	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #276
14.8 #99	Assists per game	11.4 #314
Defense
72.4 #115	Points allowed	73.3 #138
1.07 #134	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #283
51.3 #176	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #257
33.5 #157	Opponent 3-point %	36.3 #320
18.8 #57	Turnovers forced	14.6 #313
70.0 #164	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #203
7.5 #82	Steals per game	5.9 #250
3.8 #104	Blocks per game	3.9 #88

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.

Bryant

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Vermont57–77
L@ New Hampshire83–88
Wvs NJIT69–52
L@ UMBC58–70
Lvs Binghamton67–79

A week or more of rest.

Brown Bears at Bryant Bulldogs

What could decide it: BRWN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Brown

Bryant

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Brown

Bryant