Monmouth Hawks at Towson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 6:00 PM ETSECU Arena · at Towson · Conference game

#155MONMMonmouth62▲ winner

Final

#165TOWTowson48final

Closing lineTOW -8.5✓ MONM covered by 22.5

Closing total136.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Monmouth and Towson
MONM	This season	TOW
5-8	Record	6-7
5-8	ATS	6-7
6-7	O/U	4-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MONM 64–72 TOW · ✗ TOW (76%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MONM	25	37	62
TOW	22	26	48

1st half: MONM 25, TOW 22 (MONM by 3). The model had TOW by 4.6 and a total of 63.5 (actual 47).

Team stats

MONM		TOW
21-47 45%	Field goals	18-66 27%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	7-31 23%
16-19 84%	Free throws	5-6 83%
39 8 off	Rebounds	36 16 off
10	Assists	10
6	Steals	6
8	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	11
10	Fouls	17
30	Points in paint	20
7	Fast-break points	9

Players

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Ray G	40	7	5	1	1-7	1-5
Jason Rivera-Torres G	39	21	6	4	7-16	3-9
Jack Collins G	30	4	5	3	0-4	0-3
Stefanos Spartalis F	24	10	3	0	5-7	0-0
Cornelius Robinson III F	18	4	0	2	2-4	0-0
Bench
Andrew Ball F	21	12	8	0	4-4	0-0
Dok Muordar C	15	4	3	0	2-5	0-0
Anthony Martinez G	10	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Quinn Peters F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Lucas Orchard G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Leahy G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: O'Marion Harvey, Kavion McClain, Jinup Dobuol, Zubayr Griffin, Corey Miller

TOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Tejada F	36	9	5	3	2-8	2-5
Dylan Williamson G	36	11	2	0	5-13	1-4
Jaquan Womack G	27	10	4	2	4-12	2-7
Tyler Schmidt G	24	6	3	3	2-7	2-7
Mor Seck C	14	6	6	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Caleb Embeya F	23	4	8	0	2-7	0-0
Jack Doumbia Jr. F	12	0	1	1	0-4	0-2
Chike Ndefo G	12	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Ryan Conway G	9	0	2	0	0-6	0-6
Tyler Coleman F	6	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Ryan Skerry G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaiden Cole, Jon Barton, Abdou Samb, Brandon Holmes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TOW -8.5	TOW -7.9	MONM +0.6	W MONM covered
Total	136.5	135.5	Under 1.0	W Under
Projected score	—	MONM 63.8 · TOW 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOW -4.6	MONM -3.0
1H total	63.5	47
1H projected score	MONM 29.4 · TOW 34.1	MONM 25 · TOW 22

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MONM LLLWL	5-8	38%	3-3	2-2
TOW LLWLL	6-7	46%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: MONM away, as underdog; TOW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MONM OUOUU	6-7	46%	5-8
TOW UUUUU	4-9	31%	6-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MONM	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TOW	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

MONM 2–4 TOWTOW leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TOW has won the last 3 meetings · MONM 2-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	MONM 54 @ TOW 80	TOW -8.5	TOW W
Feb 8, 2024-25	TOW 73 @ MONM 67	MONM +3.5	TOW W
Feb 22, 2023-24	MONM 61 @ TOW 80	TOW -7.5	TOW W
Jan 4, 2023-24	TOW 43 @ MONM 51	MONM +3.5	MONM W
Jan 14, 2022-23	MONM 48 @ TOW 68	TOW -17.5	TOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Monmouth

13 games played

Straight up

5-8

38% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-838%

L L L W W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

L W W L W L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

U U O U O O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	@SYR	L 73-78	+21.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsRMU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsBALL	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	vsLEM	L 79-83	-6.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 162
Nov 30	@LAF	W 88-74	-1.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 3	vsPRIN	W 63-58	-5.5	L −0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@GT	L 67-79	+10.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 14	@FAIR	L 65-73	-2.5	L −10.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsQUIN	L 75-85	-1.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 160
Dec 21	vsLEH	W 76-62	-9.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 31	vsCAM	L 65-68	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

SYR

L 73-78

+16.5

RMU

W 71-70

−1.5

BALL

W 80-73

+4.5

LEM

L 79-83

−10.5

LAF

W 88-74

+12.5

PRIN

W 63-58

−0.5

L 67-79

−1.5

FAIR

L 65-73

−10.5

QUIN

L 75-85

−11.5

LEH

W 76-62

+4.5

CAM

L 65-68

−4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

SYR

L 73-78

+5.5

RMU

W 71-70

−7.5

BALL

W 80-73

+16.5

LEM

L 79-83

+16.5

LAF

W 88-74

+20.5

PRIN

W 63-58

−18.5

L 67-79

+1.5

FAIR

L 65-73

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-85

+14.5

LEH

W 76-62

−5.5

CAM

L 65-68

−19.5

over 6under 7avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Towson

13 games played

Straight up

6-7

46% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-746%

W L W L W W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

W W L L W W L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

U U U O U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsCOR	W 93-80	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@UCF	L 61-86	+9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 16	@KU	L 49-73	+14.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsSHU	W 72-47	-13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	@W&M	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	@HAMP	L 62-63	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

COR

W 93-80

+6.5

UCF

L 61-86

−15.5

L 49-73

−9.5

SHU

W 72-47

+11.5

W&M

L 70-84

−12.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

COR

W 93-80

+18.5

UCF

L 61-86

−1.5

L 49-73

−15.5

SHU

W 72-47

−26.5

W&M

L 70-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−11.5

over 4under 9avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Monmouth Hawks at Towson Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Monmouth

Towson

Monmouth

Towson