1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. TOW @ HOW
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Towson Tigers at Howard Bison

Burr Gymnasium · at Howard
#165TOWTowson
@
#197HOWHoward
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TOWThis seasonHOW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOW 71–70 · win probability HOW 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOW has more of the edges

TOW 2, HOW 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TOW has played the 140th-hardest schedule, HOW the 348th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOWBig
Three-pointers
TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%; HOW hits 35.8% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 34.9% and 34.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: TOW plays 64.0 a game (360th fastest), HOW 69.5 (144th). Faster games mean more points
HOWSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TOW 27%, HOW 76%. Transfers in: TOW 3, HOW 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TOWSmall
HOW offense vs TOW defense
Offense 196th of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings
HOWSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5; HOW 50.9 and allows 48.7
HOWSmall
TOW offense vs HOW defense
Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 206th, on the model’s ratings
TOWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TOW 36.0%, HOW 35.8%. Defensive: TOW 70.9%, HOW 68.6%
HOWSmall
Home court
HOW at home. This season: HOW 0-0 at home, TOW 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TOW 30.4, HOW 43.5. Allowed: TOW 29.3, HOW 38.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TOW 15.8%, HOW 19.3%. Forced: TOW 15.1%, HOW 20.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HOW -1.7—
Total—140.8—
Projected score—TOW 69.6 · HOW 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHOW -0.9—
1H total65.9—
1H projected scoreTOW 32.5 · HOW 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Howard has the better starters

Position by position: Towson 1, Howard 2, even 2
TowsonBetterHoward
G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
Even
G C. Gillus10.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.7 ast Score 52
G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61
HOWSmall
G C. Taylor17.2 pts · 6.4 reb · 3 ast Score 89
G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
TOWSmall
G A. Cotton8.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 15
F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
HOWSmall
G O. Okojie10.3 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 61
F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
Even
C G. Kocevar TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
TowsonBetterHoward
TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1
HOWSmall
HOW defense206th of 366 · -5.2
TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4
TOWSmall
HOW offense196th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
TOWSmall
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTOW betterHOW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Towson
Guards
B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew
Forwards
C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew
Howard
Guards
C. Gillus34 minC. Taylor32 minA. Cotton27 minO. Okojie26 minI. Brown10 minJ. Johnson6 min
Forwards
C. Robins6 minJ. Johnson3 minJ. LawsonNewD. HarrisNew
Centers
G. Kocevar13 min · TRJ. Brown6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TOWHOW
Scoring
67.1 #332Points per game75.5 #155
1.05 #256Points per possession1.09 #162
64.0 #360Pace (possessions)69.5 #144
Shooting
46.5 #345Effective FG%50.9 #198
29.4 #3493-point %35.8 #68
34.9 #2773-point attempt rate34.7 #283
30.4 #299Free throw rate43.5 #17
Possessions
15.8 #128Turnover rate19.3 #331
36.0 #24Offensive rebound rate35.8 #28
9.5 #364Assists per game15.2 #78
Defense
66.4 #18Points allowed69.3 #51
1.04 #73Points allowed per possession1.00 #24
48.5 #49Opponent effective FG%48.7 #53
30.9 #33Opponent 3-point %31.4 #41
15.1 #271Turnovers forced20.7 #13
70.9 #117Defensive rebound rate68.6 #223
5.8 #253Steals per game8.3 #29
3.3 #175Blocks per game3.7 #113
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Hofstra65–68
  • Wvs Charleston81–56
  • Wvs Hampton74–68
  • W@ Stony Brook69–57
  • Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

Howard

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan80–101
  • Wvs UMBC86–83
  • Wvs NC Central70–63
  • Wvs SC State78–61
  • W@ Norfolk St84–76

A week or more of rest.