Bucknell Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 6:00 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucknell and Penn
BUCK	This season	PENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 80–66 · win probability PENN 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

BUCK 0, PENN 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PENNBig

Three-pointers

BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%; PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 35.4% of their shots

PENNBig

BUCK offense vs PENN defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

PENNBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BUCK 29.8, PENN 33.9. Allowed: BUCK 35.3, PENN 27.5

Context

Schedule so far

BUCK has played the 227th-hardest schedule, PENN the 126th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PENNSmall

PENN offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

PENNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BUCK 18.9%, PENN 15.4%. Forced: BUCK 17.9%, PENN 17.3%

PENNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7; PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1

PENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BUCK 39%, PENN 83%. Transfers in: BUCK 2, PENN 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

PENNSmall

Home court

PENN at home. This season: PENN 0-0 at home, BUCK 0-0 away

PENNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BUCK 27.0%, PENN 30.0%. Defensive: BUCK 68.7%, PENN 68.7%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: BUCK plays 67.7 a game (242nd fastest), PENN 69.3 (158th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PENN -14.4	—
Total	—	145.4	—
Projected score	—	BUCK 65.5 · PENN 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PENN -8.4	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	BUCK 29.8 · PENN 38.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	7-10	—
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—

Venue/role: BUCK away; PENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ DEL	W78–70WU
Dec 5	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Dec 8	@ UMBC	L66–73LU

Penn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ LAF	W74–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BUCK 0–2 PENNPENN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · PENN has won the last 2 meetings · BUCK 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2023-24	BUCK 61 @ PENN 80	PENN -14.5	PENN W
Nov 14, 2021-22	PENN 73 @ BUCK 68	BUCK +3	PENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn has the better starters

Position by position: Bucknell 0, Penn 3, even 2

BucknellBetterPenn

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

PENNSmall

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

PENNBig

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

PENNSmall

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

Even

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

BucknellBetterPenn

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

PENNBig

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

PENNSmall

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

PENNBig

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

PENNSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBUCK betterPENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BUCK67.4 #327

PENN74.4 #181

Points per possession

BUCK0.99 #332

PENN1.08 #196

Pace (possessions)

BUCK67.7 #242

PENN69.3 #158

Shooting

Effective FG%

BUCK48.5 #304

PENN50.4 #223

3-point %

BUCK30.6 #328

PENN38.3 #13

3-point attempt rate

BUCK42.8 #123

PENN35.4 #264

Free throw rate

BUCK29.8 #314

PENN33.9 #212

Possessions

Turnover rate

BUCK18.9 #319

PENN15.4 #93

Offensive rebound rate

BUCK27.0 #295

PENN30.0 #200

Assists per game

BUCK12.7 #235

PENN13.7 #171

Defense

Points allowed

BUCK76.3 #226

PENN74.5 #173

Points allowed per possession

BUCK1.13 #289

PENN1.07 #137

Opponent effective FG%

BUCK54.7 #323

PENN52.1 #218

Opponent 3-point %

BUCK37.0 #344

PENN32.2 #73

Turnovers forced

BUCK17.9 #100

PENN17.3 #132

Defensive rebound rate

BUCK68.7 #216

PENN68.7 #220

Steals per game

BUCK7.2 #105

PENN6.5 #184

Blocks per game

BUCK1.8 #354

PENN3.1 #199

BUCK		PENN
Scoring
67.4 #327	Points per game	74.4 #181
0.99 #332	Points per possession	1.08 #196
67.7 #242	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #158
Shooting
48.5 #304	Effective FG%	50.4 #223
30.6 #328	3-point %	38.3 #13
42.8 #123	3-point attempt rate	35.4 #264
29.8 #314	Free throw rate	33.9 #212
Possessions
18.9 #319	Turnover rate	15.4 #93
27.0 #295	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #200
12.7 #235	Assists per game	13.7 #171
Defense
76.3 #226	Points allowed	74.5 #173
1.13 #289	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #137
54.7 #323	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #218
37.0 #344	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #73
17.9 #100	Turnovers forced	17.3 #132
68.7 #216	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #220
7.2 #105	Steals per game	6.5 #184
1.8 #354	Blocks per game	3.1 #199

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Penn

Penn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucknell

Penn