VMI Keydets at Richmond Spiders: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 6:00 PM ETRobins Center · at Richmond

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: VMI and Richmond
VMI	This season	RICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 84–66 · win probability RICH 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

VMI 1, RICH 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

Three-pointers

VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%; RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 53.6% and 42.6% of their shots

RICHBig

RICH offense vs VMI defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

RICHBig

VMI offense vs RICH defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

RICHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0; RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0

Context

Schedule so far

VMI has played the 253rd-hardest schedule, RICH the 125th. A record against a soft schedule means less

RICHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VMI 15.3%, RICH 14.3%. Forced: VMI 15.7%, RICH 17.8%

RICHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VMI 25.6%, RICH 25.0%. Defensive: VMI 62.8%, RICH 69.0%

RICHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: VMI 30.6, RICH 36.9. Allowed: VMI 34.6, RICH 35.1

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VMI 59%, RICH 29%. Transfers in: VMI 1, RICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

RICHSmall

Home court

RICH at home. This season: RICH 0-0 at home, VMI 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: VMI plays 67.6 a game (251st fastest), RICH 68.8 (194th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RICH -18.6	—
Total	—	149.9	—
Projected score	—	VMI 65.7 · RICH 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -10.9	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	VMI 29.6 · RICH 40.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	7-8	—
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	9-8	—

Venue/role: VMI away; RICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UNCG	L70–84LU
Dec 5	vs ETSU	L70–87LO

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ ECU	W87–72WO
Dec 5	@ ODU	W86–77LO
Dec 12	vs ELON	L70–73LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VMI 0–4 RICHRICH leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · RICH has won the last 4 meetings · VMI 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2025-26	VMI 54 @ RICH 87	RICH -14.5	RICH W
Dec 21, 2024-25	VMI 71 @ RICH 78	RICH -11.5	VMI W
Nov 6, 2023-24	VMI 75 @ RICH 93	RICH -17.5	RICH W
Nov 7, 2022-23	VMI 48 @ RICH 69	RICH -22.5	VMI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Richmond has the better starters

Position by position: VMI 1, Richmond 3, even 1

VMIBetterRichmond

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

RICHSmall

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

RICHBig

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

VMISmall

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

RICHBig

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

VMIBetterRichmond

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

RICHBig

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

RICHBig

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

RICHSmall

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

RICHBig

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestVMI betterRICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VMI68.5 #306

RICH76.5 #132

Points per possession

VMI1.01 #311

RICH1.11 #119

Pace (possessions)

VMI67.6 #251

RICH68.8 #194

Shooting

Effective FG%

VMI47.5 #325

RICH52.7 #115

3-point %

VMI31.5 #306

RICH37.1 #28

3-point attempt rate

VMI53.6 #2

RICH42.6 #126

Free throw rate

VMI30.6 #293

RICH36.9 #133

Possessions

Turnover rate

VMI15.3 #88

RICH14.3 #32

Offensive rebound rate

VMI25.6 #330

RICH25.0 #340

Assists per game

VMI11.6 #309

RICH14.0 #145

Defense

Points allowed

VMI83.2 #348

RICH74.5 #175

Points allowed per possession

VMI1.23 #362

RICH1.09 #183

Opponent effective FG%

VMI57.0 #357

RICH52.0 #216

Opponent 3-point %

VMI36.5 #327

RICH32.7 #103

Turnovers forced

VMI15.7 #239

RICH17.8 #111

Defensive rebound rate

VMI62.8 #360

RICH69.0 #200

Steals per game

VMI6.6 #160

RICH6.8 #139

Blocks per game

VMI2.0 #343

RICH2.3 #323

VMI		RICH
Scoring
68.5 #306	Points per game	76.5 #132
1.01 #311	Points per possession	1.11 #119
67.6 #251	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #194
Shooting
47.5 #325	Effective FG%	52.7 #115
31.5 #306	3-point %	37.1 #28
53.6 #2	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #126
30.6 #293	Free throw rate	36.9 #133
Possessions
15.3 #88	Turnover rate	14.3 #32
25.6 #330	Offensive rebound rate	25.0 #340
11.6 #309	Assists per game	14.0 #145
Defense
83.2 #348	Points allowed	74.5 #175
1.23 #362	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #183
57.0 #357	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #216
36.5 #327	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #103
15.7 #239	Turnovers forced	17.8 #111
62.8 #360	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #200
6.6 #160	Steals per game	6.8 #139
2.0 #343	Blocks per game	2.3 #323

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

VMI Keydets at Richmond Spiders

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

Richmond

Richmond has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

VMI

Richmond