Richmond Spiders at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Richmond and East Carolina
RICH	This season	ECU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 76–74 · win probability RICH 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

RICH 4, ECU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

Three-pointers

RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%; ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 42.6% and 31.1% of their shots

RICHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RICH 14.3%, ECU 17.1%. Forced: RICH 17.8%, ECU 16.3%

RICHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0; ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3

ECUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RICH 25.0%, ECU 33.4%. Defensive: RICH 69.0%, ECU 67.5%

ECUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: RICH 36.9, ECU 39.2. Allowed: RICH 35.1, ECU 32.2

ECUSmall

Home court

ECU at home. This season: ECU 0-0 at home, RICH 0-0 away

RICHSmall

RICH offense vs ECU defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: RICH plays 68.8 a game (194th fastest), ECU 70.0 (116th). Faster games mean more points

Even

ECU offense vs RICH defense

Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RICH 29%, ECU 16%. Transfers in: RICH 6, ECU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

RICH has played the 125th-hardest schedule, ECU the 123rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RICH -2.0	—
Total	—	149.0	—
Projected score	—	RICH 75.5 · ECU 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -1.3	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	RICH 35.5 · ECU 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	7-4	—
ECU LLWLW	12-18	40%	6-10	—

Venue/role: RICH away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17
ECU UOUOO	16-14	53%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ ODU	W86–77LO
Dec 12	vs ELON	L70–73LU

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs RAD	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs CCU	W63–59LU
Dec 13	@ APP	L54–67LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RICH 1–0 ECURICH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · RICH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	ECU 72 @ RICH 87	RICH -5.5	RICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U O U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 14	@USF	L 71-82	+18.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsCLT	L 70-73	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 21	@WICH	L 60-77	+12.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 23	@UNT	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	vsRICE	L 77-83	-2.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 160
Feb 1	@FAU	W 76-75	+10.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 151
Feb 7	vsTEM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 154
Feb 11	vsUTSA	W 88-72	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@RICE	W 85-75	+4.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsWICH	L 89-92	+7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	@CLT	L 56-68	+4.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	@UTSA	W 82-81	-4.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsMEM	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsTLSA	L 66-93	+8.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	@UAB	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

USF

L 71-82

+7.5

CLT

L 70-73

−4.5

WICH

L 60-77

−4.5

UNT

W 63-59

+14.5

RICE

L 77-83

−8.5

FAU

W 76-75

+11.5

TEM

L 73-81

−5.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+5.5

RICE

W 85-75

+14.5

WICH

L 89-92

+4.5

CLT

L 56-68

−7.5

UTSA

W 82-81

−3.5

MEM

W 84-68

+20.5

TLSA

L 66-93

−18.5

UAB

L 83-90

+3.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

USF

L 71-82

−5.5

CLT

L 70-73

+3.5

WICH

L 60-77

−7.5

UNT

W 63-59

−12.5

RICE

L 77-83

+19.5

FAU

W 76-75

−2.5

TEM

L 73-81

+13.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+9.5

RICE

W 85-75

+13.5

WICH

L 89-92

+31.5

CLT

L 56-68

−21.5

UTSA

W 82-81

+9.5

MEM

W 84-68

−0.5

TLSA

L 66-93

+2.5

UAB

L 83-90

+21.5

over 16under 14avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Richmond 1, East Carolina 1, even 3

RichmondBetterEast Carolina

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

RICHSmall

G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

Even

G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

Even

F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

ECUSmall

F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

No call

F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked

RichmondBetterEast Carolina

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

Even

ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

Even

ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

RICHSmall

Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

RICHSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestRICH betterECU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

East Carolina

Guards

C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew

Forwards

K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew

Centers

E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RICH76.5 #132

ECU71.5 #259

Points per possession

RICH1.11 #119

ECU1.02 #305

Pace (possessions)

RICH68.8 #194

ECU70.0 #116

Shooting

Effective FG%

RICH52.7 #115

ECU46.4 #346

3-point %

RICH37.1 #28

ECU29.3 #350

3-point attempt rate

RICH42.6 #126

ECU31.1 #337

Free throw rate

RICH36.9 #133

ECU39.2 #75

Possessions

Turnover rate

RICH14.3 #32

ECU17.1 #208

Offensive rebound rate

RICH25.0 #340

ECU33.4 #79

Assists per game

RICH14.0 #145

ECU11.8 #301

Defense

Points allowed

RICH74.5 #175

ECU77.7 #262

Points allowed per possession

RICH1.09 #183

ECU1.11 #246

Opponent effective FG%

RICH52.0 #216

ECU52.3 #229

Opponent 3-point %

RICH32.7 #103

ECU34.9 #245

Turnovers forced

RICH17.8 #111

ECU16.3 #205

Defensive rebound rate

RICH69.0 #200

ECU67.5 #282

Steals per game

RICH6.8 #139

ECU6.5 #177

Blocks per game

RICH2.3 #323

ECU4.0 #74

RICH		ECU
Scoring
76.5 #132	Points per game	71.5 #259
1.11 #119	Points per possession	1.02 #305
68.8 #194	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #116
Shooting
52.7 #115	Effective FG%	46.4 #346
37.1 #28	3-point %	29.3 #350
42.6 #126	3-point attempt rate	31.1 #337
36.9 #133	Free throw rate	39.2 #75
Possessions
14.3 #32	Turnover rate	17.1 #208
25.0 #340	Offensive rebound rate	33.4 #79
14.0 #145	Assists per game	11.8 #301
Defense
74.5 #175	Points allowed	77.7 #262
1.09 #183	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #246
52.0 #216	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #229
32.7 #103	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #245
17.8 #111	Turnovers forced	16.3 #205
69.0 #200	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #282
6.8 #139	Steals per game	6.5 #177
2.3 #323	Blocks per game	4.0 #74

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UAB83–90
Lvs Tulsa66–93
Wvs Memphis84–68
W@ UTSA82–81
L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.

Richmond Spiders at East Carolina Pirates

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Richmond

East Carolina

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Richmond

East Carolina