1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. APSU @ FUR
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Austin Peay Governors at Furman Paladins

Timmons Arena · at Furman
#210APSUAustin Peay
@
#152FURFurman
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
APSUThis seasonFUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FUR 77–71 · win probability FUR 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FUR has more of the edges

APSU 1, FUR 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
APSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: APSU 15.4%, FUR 17.8%. Forced: APSU 17.9%, FUR 13.7%
Context
Schedule so far
APSU has played the 318th-hardest schedule, FUR the 224th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: APSU 53.0 and allows 52.2; FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: APSU plays 70.1 a game (114th fastest), FUR 67.2 (273rd). Faster games mean more points
FURSmall
FUR offense vs APSU defense
Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 240th, on the model’s ratings
FURSmall
Home court
FUR at home. This season: FUR 0-0 at home, APSU 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: APSU 29.7%, FUR 30.5%. Defensive: APSU 71.1%, FUR 71.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: APSU 30%, FUR 46%. Transfers in: APSU 2, FUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
APSU offense vs FUR defense
Offense 174th of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: APSU 37.6, FUR 32.7. Allowed: APSU 32.8, FUR 28.9
Even
Three-pointers
APSU hits 35.3% and allows 33.2%; FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 38.0% and 46.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FUR -6.0—
Total—148.8—
Projected score—APSU 71.4 · FUR 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFUR -3.4—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreAPSU 33.1 · FUR 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Austin Peay 1, Furman 1, even 3
Austin PeayBetterFurman
G Z. Collins13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 60
FURSmall
G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76
G C. Love TR7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 44
Even
G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
G S. Hugie TR4.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 32
Even
G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45
G C. Ryans NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
F R. Marshall16.3 pts · 7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 92
APSUSmall
F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66
Austin PeayBetterFurman
APSU offense174th of 366 · -5.4
Even
FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2
APSU defense240th of 366 · -6.3
FURSmall
FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player
APSUSmall
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestAPSU betterFUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Austin Peay
Guards
Z. Collins30 minC. Love25 min · TRS. Hugie12 min · TRC. RyansNewP. SingletonNewT. ToddNew
Forwards
R. Marshall30 minD. BoldenNewA. DavisNew
Furman
Guards
J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew
Forwards
M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
APSUFUR
Scoring
79.0 #79Points per game74.9 #164
1.13 #91Points per possession1.11 #114
70.1 #114Pace (possessions)67.2 #273
Shooting
53.0 #105Effective FG%54.8 #43
35.3 #993-point %33.4 #204
38.0 #2153-point attempt rate46.5 #40
37.6 #110Free throw rate32.7 #246
Possessions
15.4 #94Turnover rate17.8 #260
29.7 #214Offensive rebound rate30.5 #180
15.3 #76Assists per game14.9 #91
Defense
74.6 #179Points allowed72.5 #116
1.06 #119Points allowed per possession1.08 #163
52.2 #227Opponent effective FG%50.2 #112
33.2 #137Opponent 3-point %32.3 #75
17.9 #103Turnovers forced13.7 #342
71.1 #100Defensive rebound rate71.8 #72
8.4 #22Steals per game4.4 #357
2.2 #329Blocks per game3.3 #183
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Austin Peay

20-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals83–90
  • Wvs Stetson69–60
  • L@ Bellarmine97–111
  • Lvs C Arkansas88–93
  • W@ Jacksonville65–61

A week or more of rest.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn71–82
  • Wvs ETSU76–61
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
  • Wvs Samford86–81
  • L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.