1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. FUR @ TROY
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

Furman Paladins at Troy Trojans

Trojan Arena · at Troy
#152FURFurman
@
#147TROYTroy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FURThis seasonTROY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 75–72 · win probability TROY 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

FUR 2, TROY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FUR 17.8%, TROY 17.3%. Forced: FUR 13.7%, TROY 16.7%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: FUR plays 67.2 a game (273rd fastest), TROY 69.6 (141st). Faster games mean more points
FURSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FUR 46%, TROY 11%. Transfers in: FUR 4, TROY 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FURSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FUR 54.8 and allows 50.2; TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2
Context
Schedule so far
FUR has played the 224th-hardest schedule, TROY the 166th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TROYSmall
Home court
TROY at home. This season: TROY 0-0 at home, FUR 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FUR 32.7, TROY 36.2. Allowed: FUR 28.9, TROY 31.4
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FUR 30.5%, TROY 34.5%. Defensive: FUR 71.8%, TROY 68.3%
Even
FUR offense vs TROY defense
Offense 166th of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
TROY offense vs FUR defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 146th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
FUR hits 33.4% and allows 32.3%; TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 46.5% and 45.9% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TROY -3.1—
Total—147.4—
Projected score—FUR 72.2 · TROY 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTROY -1.7—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreFUR 33.6 · TROY 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Furman 2, Troy 2, even 1
FurmanBetterTroy
G J. Bell TR12.3 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 76
FURBig
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
G C. Bowser5.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
TROYBig
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
G L. Toews TR6.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45
TROYSmall
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
F M. Kell TR13.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
Even
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
F C. Johnston9.6 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 66
FURBig
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
FurmanBetterTroy
FUR offense166th of 366 · -5.1
Even
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
FUR defense146th of 366 · -3.2
Even
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players
TROYSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
FURSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench-2.5 · 5 players
Even
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestFUR betterTROY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Furman
Guards
J. Bell26 min · TRC. Bowser23 minL. Toews21 min · TRA. Franklin11 minC. O'Neal11 minG. LewisNew
Forwards
M. Kell30 min · TRC. Johnston29 minM. Smith12 minJ. Butler9 min · TRO. Ritger7 minD. MolnarNew
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FURTROY
Scoring
74.9 #164Points per game77.3 #110
1.11 #114Points per possession1.11 #113
67.2 #273Pace (possessions)69.6 #141
Shooting
54.8 #43Effective FG%51.5 #171
33.4 #2043-point %33.0 #229
46.5 #403-point attempt rate45.9 #47
32.7 #246Free throw rate36.2 #147
Possessions
17.8 #260Turnover rate17.3 #226
30.5 #180Offensive rebound rate34.5 #59
14.9 #91Assists per game15.0 #86
Defense
72.5 #116Points allowed74.5 #178
1.08 #163Points allowed per possession1.07 #128
50.2 #112Opponent effective FG%50.2 #111
32.3 #75Opponent 3-point %31.6 #47
13.7 #342Turnovers forced16.7 #173
71.8 #72Defensive rebound rate68.3 #243
4.4 #357Steals per game7.2 #107
3.3 #183Blocks per game3.3 #169
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Furman

19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn71–82
  • Wvs ETSU76–61
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro81–75
  • Wvs Samford86–81
  • L@ W Carolina67–86

A week or more of rest.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.