Little Rock Trojans at Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETPete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Little Rock and Jax State
LR	This season	JXST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JXST 74–70 · win probability JXST 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

LR 0, JXST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, JXST the 196th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JXSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, JXST 29.8%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, JXST 72.0%

JXSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LR 27.7, JXST 43.1. Allowed: LR 33.1, JXST 38.7

JXSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; JXST 49.7 and allows 49.6

JXSTSmall

LR offense vs JXST defense

Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 172nd, on the model’s ratings

JXSTSmall

Home court

JXST at home. This season: JXST 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away

JXSTSmall

Three-pointers

LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; JXST hits 35.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 31.0% and 38.1% of their shots

Even

JXST offense vs LR defense

Offense 245th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), JXST 66.3 (302nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, JXST 17.0%. Forced: LR 18.6%, JXST 16.2%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, JXST 0%. Transfers in: LR 8, JXST 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JXST -4.0	—
Total	—	143.1	—
Projected score	—	LR 69.5 · JXST 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JXST -2.3	—
1H total	67.0	—
1H projected score	LR 32.3 · JXST 34.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR WLLWL	12-18	40%	8-10	—
JXST WWWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—

Venue/role: LR away; JXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR UUOOU	15-15	50%	10-20
JXST OOOUU	17-12	59%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
JXST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Little Rock

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ ARST	L78–90LO
Dec 12	vs SIU	L65–74WU
Dec 15	vs MILW	L72–92LO

Jax State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs LT	L71–77LO
Dec 12	vs ETSU	W81–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LR 0–3 JXSTJXST leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · JXST has won the last 3 meetings · LR 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2023-24	JXST 90 @ LR 60	LR -2.5	JXST W
Dec 17, 2022-23	LR 62 @ JXST 72	JXST -7.5	JXST W
Dec 21, 2021-22	JXST 87 @ LR 67	LR +8.5	JXST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L W L L W L L L L W W L W W W L W L L W L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@CARK	L 47-85	+3.5	L −34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 6	vsARST	L 78-90	+9.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 9	@WVU	L 58-90	+27.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 16	@MORE	L 64-78	+2.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 142
Dec 18	@USI	W 77-62	-2.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 1	vsTNTC	W 77-58	-1.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsTNST	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@SIUE	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 10	@LIN	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsEIU	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 17	vsWIU	W 86-79	-10.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@SEMO	L 65-70	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@TNST	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TNTC	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 3	@UTM	L 52-55	+6.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsLIN	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 7	vsSIUE	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	@WIU	W 77-58	-7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 14	@EIU	L 72-78	-2.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsUTM	W 67-65	+2.5	W +4.5	136.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsSEMO	L 65-70	+1.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsMORE	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 146
Feb 28	vsUSI	W 89-70	-5.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsLIN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

CARK

L 47-85

−34.5

ARST

L 78-90

−2.5

WVU

L 58-90

−4.5

L 64-78

−11.5

USI

W 77-62

+12.5

TNTC

W 77-58

+17.5

TNST

L 79-84

−3.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+6.5

LIN

W 82-74

+14.5

EIU

W 74-63

+4.5

WIU

W 86-79

−3.5

SEMO

L 65-70

+0.5

TNST

L 63-70

−2.5

TNTC

L 77-87

−11.5

UTM

L 52-55

+3.5

LIN

L 74-79

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 77-58

+11.5

EIU

L 72-78

−8.5

UTM

W 67-65

+4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−3.5

L 70-76

−8.5

USI

W 89-70

+13.5

LIN

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

CARK

L 47-85

−6.5

ARST

L 78-90

+20.5

WVU

L 58-90

+15.5

L 64-78

+5.5

USI

W 77-62

−1.5

TNTC

W 77-58

−9.5

TNST

L 79-84

+18.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+11.5

LIN

W 82-74

+6.5

EIU

W 74-63

+3.5

WIU

W 86-79

+29.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−10.5

TNST

L 63-70

−17.5

TNTC

L 77-87

+22.5

UTM

L 52-55

−32.5

LIN

L 74-79

+3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−0.5

WIU

W 77-58

−6.5

EIU

L 72-78

+15.5

UTM

W 67-65

−4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−8.5

L 70-76

+7.5

USI

W 89-70

+19.5

LIN

L 62-72

−14.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jax State

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W W L W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U O O U U U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 28	@FIU	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 31	@MOST	L 67-74	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 5	@WKU	W 71-66	+4.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsKENN	W 77-58	+1.5	W +20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUTEP	L 64-69	-6.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsNMSU	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 18	@LT	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@SHSU	L 78-82	+6.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsDEL	W 80-70	-7.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsLIB	L 78-81	+3.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	@NMSU	L 75-77	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	@UTEP	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 125
Mar 10	vsNMSU	L 63-68	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

FIU

W 78-74

+7.5

MOST

L 67-74

−2.5

WKU

W 71-66

+9.5

KENN

W 77-58

+20.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−11.5

NMSU

L 70-79

−10.5

L 71-77

−3.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+2.5

DEL

W 80-70

+2.5

LIB

L 78-81

+0.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+4.5

UTEP

W 64-61

+1.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−3.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

FIU

W 78-74

+3.5

MOST

L 67-74

+5.5

WKU

W 71-66

−3.5

KENN

W 77-58

−14.5

UTEP

L 64-69

−1.5

NMSU

L 70-79

+9.5

L 71-77

+15.5

SHSU

L 78-82

+12.5

DEL

W 80-70

+16.5

LIB

L 78-81

+19.5

NMSU

L 75-77

+6.5

UTEP

W 64-61

−14.5

NMSU

L 63-68

−10.5

over 17under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock has the better starters

Position by position: Little Rock 2, Jax State 0, even 3

Little RockBetterJax State

G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62

LRSmall

G J. Stiemke TR9.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28

G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46

Even

G C. Lockett TR9.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

Even

F N. Cunningham TR5.1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 38

F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80

LRBig

F M. Hill TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 7

F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Walker TR4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

Little RockBetterJax State

LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3

JXSTSmall

JXST defense172nd of 366 · -3.9

LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2

Even

JXST offense245th of 366 · -7.4

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

LRSmall

Frontcourt-0.9 · 3 players

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

JXSTSmall

Bench+0.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLR betterJXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Little Rock

Guards

A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew

Forwards

B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew

Jax State

Guards

J. Stiemke28 min · TRC. Lockett25 min · TRL. Horner9 min · TRG. GondrezickNewJ. VickNewN. HernandezNew

Forwards

N. Cunningham13 min · TRM. Hill10 min · TRB. Walker9 min · TRE. Croley5 min · TRK. Polk1 min · TRA. CurryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LR68.9 #300

JXST69.9 #287

Points per possession

LR1.02 #306

JXST1.05 #241

Pace (possessions)

LR67.6 #248

JXST66.3 #302

Shooting

Effective FG%

LR49.4 #273

JXST49.7 #253

3-point %

LR35.3 #96

JXST35.7 #76

3-point attempt rate

LR31.0 #339

JXST38.1 #209

Free throw rate

LR27.7 #345

JXST43.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

LR18.4 #292

JXST17.0 #204

Offensive rebound rate

LR31.5 #143

JXST29.8 #208

Assists per game

LR13.4 #183

JXST11.6 #310

Defense

Points allowed

LR74.2 #160

JXST70.6 #66

Points allowed per possession

LR1.10 #217

JXST1.06 #120

Opponent effective FG%

LR51.8 #199

JXST49.6 #85

Opponent 3-point %

LR34.4 #211

JXST33.3 #141

Turnovers forced

LR18.6 #71

JXST16.2 #208

Defensive rebound rate

LR63.4 #357

JXST72.0 #67

Steals per game

LR7.5 #77

JXST5.8 #252

Blocks per game

LR4.4 #45

JXST3.0 #233

LR		JXST
Scoring
68.9 #300	Points per game	69.9 #287
1.02 #306	Points per possession	1.05 #241
67.6 #248	Pace (possessions)	66.3 #302
Shooting
49.4 #273	Effective FG%	49.7 #253
35.3 #96	3-point %	35.7 #76
31.0 #339	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #209
27.7 #345	Free throw rate	43.1 #21
Possessions
18.4 #292	Turnover rate	17.0 #204
31.5 #143	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #208
13.4 #183	Assists per game	11.6 #310
Defense
74.2 #160	Points allowed	70.6 #66
1.10 #217	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #120
51.8 #199	Opponent effective FG%	49.6 #85
34.4 #211	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #141
18.6 #71	Turnovers forced	16.2 #208
63.4 #357	Defensive rebound rate	72.0 #67
7.5 #77	Steals per game	5.8 #252
4.4 #45	Blocks per game	3.0 #233

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
Lvs Morehead St70–76
Lvs SE Missouri65–70
Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

Jax State

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico St63–68
W@ UTEP64–61
L@ New Mexico St75–77
Lvs Liberty78–81
Wvs Delaware80–70

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock Trojans at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

What could decide it: JXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

Jax State

Little Rock has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Little Rock

Jax State