Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
#43IOWAIowa
@
#23PURPurdue
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Iowa and Purdue
IOWAThis seasonPUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 74–69 · win probability PUR 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 142.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

IOWA 1, PUR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IOWA 30.2%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: IOWA 70.8%, PUR 72.9%
IOWASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IOWA 15.1%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: IOWA 20.3%, PUR 15.3%
PURSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: IOWA 35.1, PUR 28.6. Allowed: IOWA 38.5, PUR 25.5
PURSmall
Home court
PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, IOWA 0-0 away
PURSmall
IOWA offense vs PUR defense
Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IOWA 61%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: IOWA 2, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
IOWA has played the 30th-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
PUR offense vs IOWA defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 64 possessions: IOWA plays 63.0 a game (365th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 43.0% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PUR -4.6—
Total—142.6—
Projected score—IOWA 69 · PUR 73.6

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadPUR -2.6—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreIOWA 32.1 · PUR 34.7—

Purdue has the better starters

Position by position: Iowa 1, Purdue 2, even 2
IowaBetterPurdue
G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54
PURSmall
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82
Even
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57
PURSmall
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
IOWASmall
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77
Even
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
IowaBetterPurdue
IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8
Even
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4
Even
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players
PURSmall
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players
IOWASmall
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
IOWASmall
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestIOWA betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Iowa
Guards
K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew
Forwards
C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew
Centers
A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IOWAPUR
Scoring
74.5 #177Points per game81.6 #35
1.18 #28Points per possession1.25 #2
63.0 #365Pace (possessions)65.4 #333
Shooting
56.4 #17Effective FG%57.6 #10
35.6 #853-point %38.3 #11
43.0 #1173-point attempt rate40.2 #164
35.1 #176Free throw rate28.6 #336
Possessions
15.1 #75Turnover rate13.7 #16
30.2 #192Offensive rebound rate36.4 #19
15.0 #88Assists per game19.6 #2
Defense
66.3 #16Points allowed70.5 #65
1.05 #91Points allowed per possession1.08 #162
52.6 #245Opponent effective FG%52.4 #232
33.3 #143Opponent 3-point %34.1 #192
20.3 #17Turnovers forced15.3 #263
70.8 #119Defensive rebound rate72.9 #39
6.8 #140Steals per game5.5 #297
1.9 #349Blocks per game2.8 #257

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois59–71
  • Wvs Nebraska77–71
  • Wvs Florida73–72
  • Wvs Clemson67–61
  • Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.