Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 7:00 PM ETGilbert Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lehigh and Santa Barbara
LEH	This season	UCSB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 76–68 · win probability UCSB 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LEH 2, UCSB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LEH 23.2%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: LEH 68.5%, UCSB 74.5%

UCSBBig

LEH offense vs UCSB defense

Offense 257th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings

LEHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LEH 100%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: LEH 0, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LEHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LEH 31.8, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: LEH 32.5, UCSB 42.4

Even

UCSB offense vs LEH defense

Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 179th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LEH 52.9 and allows 50.6; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6

Even

Three-pointers

LEH hits 36.1% and allows 32.9%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 38.3% and 44.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LEH has played the 218th-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LEH plays 68.7 a game (197th fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LEH 17.7%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: LEH 16.2%, UCSB 16.8%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSB -7.8	—
Total	—	144.3	—
Projected score	—	LEH 68.2 · UCSB 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSB -4.5	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	LEH 31.5 · UCSB 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LEH WLWWL	19-14	58%	2-1	—
UCSB WWLLL	12-18	40%	1-3	—

Venue/role: LEH neutral site; UCSB neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEH OUUUU	18-15	55%	16-17
UCSB OUUUO	16-14	53%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
UCSB	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lehigh

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs PEPP	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs MONM	L62–76LU

Santa Barbara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ CSUB	W75–69LU
Dec 5	vs CP	L79–89LO
Dec 12	vs YALE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LEH 0–1 UCSBUCSB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LEH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2025-26	UCSB 72 vs LEH 70	LEH +10.5	LEH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lehigh

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L W W W L W W L W L L W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W W L L W W L L L L L W W W W W W L W L L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

U U O U O O U O O O U O U U O O O O U U O O O O O U U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOU	L 57-75	+36.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 9	@WVU	L 47-69	+17.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 14	@RUTG	L 72-84	+18.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsSFPA	W 79-62	-10.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsCOLU	L 67-82	+2.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 25	@MRST	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	132.5	O 133
Nov 28	vsUCSB	L 70-72	+10.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsTXST	W 78-74	+6.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 2	@BING	L 71-80	-3.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 6	vsLIU	L 82-87	+1.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 21	@MONM	L 62-76	+9.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 31	vsARMY	L 78-85	-5.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 163
Jan 3	@BUCK	L 65-72	+4.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	vsHC	W 66-58	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@COLG	W 78-77	+11.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@BU	W 93-91	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	vsNAVY	L 79-82	+3.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 161
Jan 19	vsL-MD	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsLAF	W 64-59	-2.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	@ARMY	L 64-67	-1.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsCOLG	W 77-76	+3.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	@L-MD	L 84-89	+2.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 173
Feb 7	@HC	L 67-76	-1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsAMER	W 90-82	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	@LAF	W 78-69	+2.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@NAVY	L 49-72	+9.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 121
Feb 22	vsBU	W 70-67	+2.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	@AMER	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBUCK	W 89-79	-5.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 5	vsHC	W 69-66	-5.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 8	vsCOLG	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsBU	W 74-60	+2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 134
Mar 18	vsPV	L 55-67	-3.5	L −15.5	140.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

+18.5

WVU

L 47-69

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+6.5

SFPA

W 79-62

+6.5

COLU

L 67-82

−12.5

MRST

L 55-78

−15.5

UCSB

L 70-72

+8.5

TXST

W 78-74

+10.5

BING

L 71-80

−12.5

LIU

L 82-87

−3.5

MONM

L 62-76

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-85

−12.5

BUCK

L 65-72

−2.5

W 66-58

+5.5

COLG

W 78-77

+12.5

W 93-91

+6.5

NAVY

L 79-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 88-81

+3.5

LAF

W 64-59

+2.5

ARMY

L 64-67

−4.5

COLG

W 77-76

+4.5

L-MD

L 84-89

−2.5

L 67-76

−10.5

AMER

W 90-82

+9.5

LAF

W 78-69

+11.5

NAVY

L 49-72

−13.5

W 70-67

+5.5

AMER

W 78-73

+12.5

BUCK

W 89-79

+4.5

W 69-66

−2.5

COLG

W 76-69

+9.5

W 74-60

+16.5

L 55-67

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

−4.5

WVU

L 47-69

−23.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+19.5

SFPA

W 79-62

−10.5

COLU

L 67-82

+5.5

MRST

L 55-78

+0.5

UCSB

L 70-72

−4.5

TXST

W 78-74

+16.5

BING

L 71-80

+11.5

LIU

L 82-87

+26.5

MONM

L 62-76

−5.5

ARMY

L 78-85

+16.5

BUCK

L 65-72

−0.5

W 66-58

−13.5

COLG

W 78-77

+12.5

W 93-91

+39.5

NAVY

L 79-82

+23.5

L-MD

W 88-81

+19.5

LAF

W 64-59

−20.5

ARMY

L 64-67

−16.5

COLG

W 77-76

+6.5

L-MD

L 84-89

+23.5

L 67-76

+5.5

AMER

W 90-82

+31.5

LAF

W 78-69

+6.5

NAVY

L 49-72

−18.5

W 70-67

−4.5

AMER

W 78-73

+10.5

BUCK

W 89-79

+29.5

W 69-66

−7.5

COLG

W 76-69

−1.5

W 74-60

−4.5

L 55-67

−18.5

over 18under 15avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W W W W W W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L L L W L W L L W L L L L W W L W W L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O O U U O O O U U U O U O U U O O U U O O U O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsSEA	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 4	vsLBSU	W 84-77	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsCSUB	W 109-84	-12.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 13	vsUVU	L 53-68	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	@GB	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 22	vsPORT	W 79-61	-9.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 1	@CSUF	L 84-95	-3.5	L −14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	@CSUN	L 65-74	+2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUCD	L 86-93	-4.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 15	@CSUB	W 75-69	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsHAW	W 77-62	+2.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCP	W 107-67	-8.5	W +31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	@LBSU	W 74-71	-4.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCSD	W 62-48	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	vsCSUF	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCD	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 7	vsUCI	W 84-79	-2.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@UCR	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@CP	L 79-89	-3.5	L −13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	vsCSUN	L 83-85	-5.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@HAW	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	vsUCR	W 70-59	-10.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	@UCI	L 60-64	+3.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsUCSD	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsUCD	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

SEA

W 74-71

+5.5

LBSU

W 84-77

−6.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+12.5

UVU

L 53-68

−9.5

L 64-67

−10.5

PORT

W 79-61

+8.5

CSUF

L 84-95

−14.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−6.5

UCD

L 86-93

−11.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−1.5

HAW

W 77-62

+17.5

W 107-67

+31.5

LBSU

W 74-71

−1.5

UCSD

W 62-48

+18.5

CSUF

W 83-69

+5.5

UCD

L 75-85

−13.5

UCI

W 84-79

+2.5

UCR

W 76-68

+1.5

L 79-89

−13.5

CSUN

L 83-85

−7.5

HAW

L 75-78

+2.5

UCR

W 70-59

+0.5

UCI

L 60-64

−0.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−3.5

UCD

L 73-79

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

SEA

W 74-71

+2.5

LBSU

W 84-77

+19.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+47.5

UVU

L 53-68

−25.5

L 64-67

−9.5

PORT

W 79-61

−7.5

CSUF

L 84-95

+23.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−17.5

UCD

L 86-93

+31.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−0.5

HAW

W 77-62

−4.5

W 107-67

+14.5

LBSU

W 74-71

+0.5

UCSD

W 62-48

−35.5

CSUF

W 83-69

−1.5

UCD

L 75-85

+12.5

UCI

W 84-79

+21.5

UCR

W 76-68

−1.5

L 79-89

+8.5

CSUN

L 83-85

+11.5

HAW

L 75-78

+7.5

UCR

W 70-59

−16.5

UCI

L 60-64

−14.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−14.5

UCD

L 73-79

+12.5

over 16under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Position by position: Lehigh 1, Santa Barbara 3, even 1

LehighBetterSanta Barbara

G J. Ingram10.7 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 54

Even

G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52

G C. Thomas5.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

UCSBBig

G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91

G J. Vazquez4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 11

UCSBBig

G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F E. Benoit10.2 pts · 6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 24

UCSBSmall

G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43

C H. Alvey15.4 pts · 7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 86

LEHBig

C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45

LehighBetterSanta Barbara

LEH offense257th of 366 · -7.9

UCSBBig

UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3

LEH defense179th of 366 · -4.1

Even

UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5

Backcourt-6.9 · 3 players

UCSBBig

Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt+2.3 · 2 players

LEHSmall

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Bench-7.6 · 4 players

UCSBBig

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLEH betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lehigh

Guards

J. Ingram36 minC. Thomas23 minJ. Vazquez22 minP. Kramer19 minA. Urosevic19 minC. BurrowsNew

Forwards

E. Benoit29 minJ. Pike12 minA. Addesa8 minR. RudusansNewN. DjanoglyNew

Centers

H. Alvey31 minC. CohenNew

Santa Barbara

Guards

V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min

Forwards

A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min

Centers

E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LEH71.8 #249

UCSB76.7 #127

Points per possession

LEH1.05 #257

UCSB1.13 #87

Pace (possessions)

LEH68.7 #197

UCSB68.2 #218

Shooting

Effective FG%

LEH52.9 #107

UCSB54.7 #47

3-point %

LEH36.1 #56

UCSB37.4 #23

3-point attempt rate

LEH38.3 #206

UCSB44.1 #87

Free throw rate

LEH31.8 #258

UCSB36.8 #134

Possessions

Turnover rate

LEH17.7 #250

UCSB18.8 #312

Offensive rebound rate

LEH23.2 #349

UCSB31.0 #165

Assists per game

LEH13.9 #153

UCSB14.1 #140

Defense

Points allowed

LEH74.4 #171

UCSB73.7 #148

Points allowed per possession

LEH1.08 #175

UCSB1.08 #156

Opponent effective FG%

LEH50.6 #133

UCSB52.6 #244

Opponent 3-point %

LEH32.9 #109

UCSB33.9 #177

Turnovers forced

LEH16.2 #212

UCSB16.8 #170

Defensive rebound rate

LEH68.5 #226

UCSB74.5 #14

Steals per game

LEH6.6 #163

UCSB6.2 #216

Blocks per game

LEH3.1 #209

UCSB2.3 #322

LEH		UCSB
Scoring
71.8 #249	Points per game	76.7 #127
1.05 #257	Points per possession	1.13 #87
68.7 #197	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #218
Shooting
52.9 #107	Effective FG%	54.7 #47
36.1 #56	3-point %	37.4 #23
38.3 #206	3-point attempt rate	44.1 #87
31.8 #258	Free throw rate	36.8 #134
Possessions
17.7 #250	Turnover rate	18.8 #312
23.2 #349	Offensive rebound rate	31.0 #165
13.9 #153	Assists per game	14.1 #140
Defense
74.4 #171	Points allowed	73.7 #148
1.08 #175	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #156
50.6 #133	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #244
32.9 #109	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #177
16.2 #212	Turnovers forced	16.8 #170
68.5 #226	Defensive rebound rate	74.5 #14
6.6 #163	Steals per game	6.2 #216
3.1 #209	Blocks per game	2.3 #322

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lehigh

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–67
Wvs Boston U74–60
Wvs Colgate76–69
Wvs Holy Cross69–66
Wvs Bucknell89–79

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Davis73–79
Lvs UC San Diego63–64
L@ UC Irvine60–64
Wvs UC Riverside70–59
L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.

Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lehigh

Santa Barbara

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lehigh

Santa Barbara