West Virginia Mountaineers vs North Carolina Tar Heels: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Virginia and North Carolina
WVU	This season	UNC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 74–73 · win probability UNC 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

WVU 0, UNC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: WVU plays 65.3 a game (336th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points

UNCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WVU 51.6 and allows 48.5; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4

UNCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WVU 35.1, UNC 37.1. Allowed: WVU 29.3, UNC 23.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WVU 16.8%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: WVU 17.8%, UNC 13.6%

Even

WVU offense vs UNC defense

Offense 77th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WVU 30.5%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: WVU 71.4%, UNC 72.2%

Even

UNC offense vs WVU defense

Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

WVU hits 33.0% and allows 34.3%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 43.0% and 42.2% of their shots

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WVU 23%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: WVU 6, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

WVU has played the 62nd-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNC -1.2	—
Total	—	146.9	—
Projected score	—	WVU 72.9 · UNC 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNC -0.6	—
1H total	68.7	—
1H projected score	WVU 34.1 · UNC 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WVU WLWWW	18-17	51%	5-3	—
UNC LWWWL	19-14	58%	2-3	—

Venue/role: WVU neutral site; UNC neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UUOOO	13-22	37%	21-14
UNC OUUOO	16-17	48%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs MERC	W70–38WU
Dec 5	vs VT	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs PITT	W71–49WU

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs ARK	W87–72WO
Dec 6	vs BTLR	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ GTWN	W81–61WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Virginia

35 games played

Straight up

21-14

60% wins

Against the spread

18-17

51% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-22

37% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1460%

W W W W W L L W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1751%

L L W W L W L W W L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2237%

U U U U O O O U O U O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O U U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsLAF	W 81-59	-24.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	vsCLEM	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsXAV	L 68-78	-5.5	L −15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 30	vsMERC	W 70-38	-21.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 3	vsCOPP	W 91-49	-31.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	vsWAKE	L 66-75	-2.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 9	vsLR	W 90-58	-27.5	W +4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsOSU	L 88-89	+3.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 177
Dec 22	vsMVSU	W 86-51	-42.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 2	@ISU	L 59-80	+16.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 139
Jan 6	vsCIN	W 62-60	+1.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsKU	W 86-75	+2.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	@HOU	L 48-77	+13.5	L −15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 17	vsCOLO	W 72-61	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 133
Jan 21	@ASU	W 75-63	+1.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	@ARIZ	L 53-88	+17.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsKSU	W 59-54	-7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 113
Jan 31	vsBAY	L 53-63	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 116
Feb 5	@CIN	W 59-54	+5.5	W +10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsTTU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 133
Feb 14	@UCF	W 74-67	+3.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 18	vsUTAH	L 56-61	-10.5	L −15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	@TCU	L 54-60	+4.5	L −1.5	133.5	U 114
Feb 24	@OKST	L 84-91	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 175
Feb 28	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 150
Mar 3	@KSU	L 63-65	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsUCF	W 77-62	-4.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsBYU	L 48-68	+3.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsSTAN	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 159
Apr 4	vsCREI	W 87-70	-1.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 157
Apr 5	vsOU	W 89-82	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

LAF

W 81-59

−2.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+1.5

XAV

L 68-78

−15.5

MERC

W 70-38

+10.5

COPP

W 91-49

+10.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−11.5

W 90-58

+4.5

OSU

L 88-89

+2.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−7.5

ISU

L 59-80

−4.5

CIN

W 62-60

+3.5

W 86-75

+13.5

HOU

L 48-77

−15.5

COLO

W 72-61

+4.5

ASU

W 75-63

+13.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−17.5

KSU

W 59-54

−2.5

BAY

L 53-63

−12.5

CIN

W 59-54

+10.5

TTU

L 63-70

−2.5

UCF

W 74-67

+10.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−15.5

TCU

L 54-60

−1.5

OKST

L 84-91

−5.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

KSU

L 63-65

−5.5

UCF

W 77-62

+10.5

BYU

L 48-68

−16.5

STAN

W 82-77

+2.5

CREI

W 87-70

+15.5

W 89-82

+10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

LAF

W 81-59

+4.5

CLEM

L 67-70

+4.5

XAV

L 68-78

+5.5

MERC

W 70-38

−19.5

COPP

W 91-49

+5.5

WAKE

L 66-75

−2.5

W 90-58

+15.5

OSU

L 88-89

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-51

−0.5

ISU

L 59-80

−3.5

CIN

W 62-60

−10.5

W 86-75

+21.5

HOU

L 48-77

−2.5

COLO

W 72-61

−8.5

ASU

W 75-63

−7.5

ARIZ

L 53-88

−2.5

KSU

W 59-54

−33.5

BAY

L 53-63

−23.5

CIN

W 59-54

−14.5

TTU

L 63-70

−6.5

UCF

W 74-67

+0.5

UTAH

L 56-61

−16.5

TCU

L 54-60

−19.5

OKST

L 84-91

+30.5

BYU

W 79-71

+8.5

KSU

L 63-65

−15.5

UCF

W 77-62

−3.5

BYU

L 48-68

−25.5

STAN

W 82-77

+23.5

CREI

W 87-70

+19.5

W 89-82

+29.5

over 13under 22avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Carolina

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L W L L W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W L W L W L W W L W L W W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCARK	W 94-54	-31.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 7	vsKU	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsRAD	W 89-74	-20.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 14	vsNCCU	W 97-53	-34.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsNAVY	W 73-61	-26.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 25	vsSBU	W 85-70	-10.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsMSU	L 58-74	+1.5	L −14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	@UK	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 7	vsGTWN	W 81-61	-10.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsUPST	W 80-62	-29.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	vsETSU	W 77-58	-17.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsOSU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 141
Dec 22	vsECU	W 99-51	-25.5	W +22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 30	vsFSU	W 79-66	-12.5	W +0.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 3	@SMU	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsWAKE	W 87-84	-10.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 171
Jan 14	@STAN	L 90-95	-4.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 185
Jan 17	@CAL	L 78-84	-7.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsND	W 91-69	-13.5	W +8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	@UVA	W 85-80	+6.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 31	@GT	W 91-75	-9.5	W +6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 2	vsSYR	W 87-77	-11.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsDUKE	W 71-68	+6.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 10	@MIA	L 66-75	+1.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 141
Feb 14	vsPITT	W 79-65	-11.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 17	@NCSU	L 58-82	+8.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 140
Feb 21	@SYR	W 77-64	+2.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 23	vsLOU	W 77-74	+3.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsVT	W 89-82	-7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 3	vsCLEM	W 67-63	-2.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 7	@DUKE	L 61-76	+18.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsCLEM	L 79-80	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 159
Mar 19	vsVCU	L 78-82	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

+8.5

W 87-74

+10.5

RAD

W 89-74

−5.5

NCCU

W 97-53

+9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−14.5

SBU

W 85-70

+4.5

MSU

L 58-74

−14.5

W 67-64

+10.5

GTWN

W 81-61

+9.5

UPST

W 80-62

−11.5

ETSU

W 77-58

+1.5

OSU

W 71-70

−1.5

ECU

W 99-51

+22.5

FSU

W 79-66

+0.5

SMU

L 83-97

−12.5

WAKE

W 87-84

−7.5

STAN

L 90-95

−9.5

CAL

L 78-84

−13.5

W 91-69

+8.5

UVA

W 85-80

+11.5

W 91-75

+6.5

SYR

W 87-77

−1.5

DUKE

W 71-68

+9.5

MIA

L 66-75

−7.5

PITT

W 79-65

+2.5

NCSU

L 58-82

−15.5

SYR

W 77-64

+15.5

LOU

W 77-74

+6.5

W 89-82

−0.5

CLEM

W 67-63

+1.5

DUKE

L 61-76

+3.5

CLEM

L 79-80

+1.5

VCU

L 78-82

−6.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

−9.5

W 87-74

+1.5

RAD

W 89-74

+0.5

NCCU

W 97-53

−9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−26.5

SBU

W 85-70

+2.5

MSU

L 58-74

−20.5

W 67-64

−32.5

GTWN

W 81-61

−7.5

UPST

W 80-62

−9.5

ETSU

W 77-58

−15.5

OSU

W 71-70

−16.5

ECU

W 99-51

+5.5

FSU

W 79-66

−21.5

SMU

L 83-97

+24.5

WAKE

W 87-84

+16.5

STAN

L 90-95

+37.5

CAL

L 78-84

+10.5

W 91-69

+10.5

UVA

W 85-80

+12.5

W 91-75

+5.5

SYR

W 87-77

+5.5

DUKE

W 71-68

−13.5

MIA

L 66-75

−15.5

PITT

W 79-65

+1.5

NCSU

L 58-82

−16.5

SYR

W 77-64

−13.5

LOU

W 77-74

−11.5

W 89-82

+21.5

CLEM

W 67-63

−11.5

DUKE

L 61-76

−10.5

CLEM

L 79-80

+18.5

VCU

L 78-82

+9.5

over 16under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

West Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: West Virginia 2, North Carolina 1, even 2

West VirginiaBetterNorth Carolina

G F. Bizjack TR17.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 88

WVUSmall

G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67

G S. Traore TR9 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 46

UNCBig

G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98

G M. Somerville TR8 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

Even

G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F B. Lorient11.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 91

WVUSmall

F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65

F J. Buchanan TR12.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

Even

C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85

West VirginiaBetterNorth Carolina

WVU offense77th of 366 · +0.9

Even

UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9

WVU defense19th of 366 · +5.5

Even

UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

UNCBig

Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+6.2 · 2 players

WVUSmall

Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players

Bench+1.6 · 3 players

WVUSmall

Bench+0.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWVU betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Virginia

Guards

F. Bizjack34 min · TRS. Traore29 min · TRM. Somerville26 min · TRJ. Sanon21 min · TRA. Jenkins16 minM. FeenaneNew

Forwards

B. Lorient29 minJ. Buchanan28 min · TRM. OlejaszNew

Centers

M. Sylla21 min · TRA. DioumNewA. SeiniNew

North Carolina

Guards

N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min

Forwards

J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew

Centers

C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WVU70.6 #271

UNC79.7 #73

Points per possession

WVU1.08 #183

UNC1.16 #50

Pace (possessions)

WVU65.3 #336

UNC69.0 #180

Shooting

Effective FG%

WVU51.6 #166

UNC54.3 #57

3-point %

WVU33.0 #227

UNC34.2 #159

3-point attempt rate

WVU43.0 #118

UNC42.2 #132

Free throw rate

WVU35.1 #173

UNC37.1 #127

Possessions

Turnover rate

WVU16.8 #188

UNC13.9 #20

Offensive rebound rate

WVU30.5 #178

UNC31.2 #159

Assists per game

WVU12.8 #228

UNC16.0 #47

Defense

Points allowed

WVU65.7 #11

UNC71.6 #97

Points allowed per possession

WVU1.01 #34

UNC1.04 #65

Opponent effective FG%

WVU48.5 #50

UNC48.4 #44

Opponent 3-point %

WVU34.3 #201

UNC34.7 #234

Turnovers forced

WVU17.8 #108

UNC13.6 #344

Defensive rebound rate

WVU71.4 #86

UNC72.2 #59

Steals per game

WVU6.3 #195

UNC5.4 #308

Blocks per game

WVU3.1 #204

UNC3.4 #167

WVU		UNC
Scoring
70.6 #271	Points per game	79.7 #73
1.08 #183	Points per possession	1.16 #50
65.3 #336	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #180
Shooting
51.6 #166	Effective FG%	54.3 #57
33.0 #227	3-point %	34.2 #159
43.0 #118	3-point attempt rate	42.2 #132
35.1 #173	Free throw rate	37.1 #127
Possessions
16.8 #188	Turnover rate	13.9 #20
30.5 #178	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #159
12.8 #228	Assists per game	16.0 #47
Defense
65.7 #11	Points allowed	71.6 #97
1.01 #34	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #65
48.5 #50	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #44
34.3 #201	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #234
17.8 #108	Turnovers forced	13.6 #344
71.4 #86	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #59
6.3 #195	Steals per game	5.4 #308
3.1 #204	Blocks per game	3.4 #167

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Virginia

21-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Oklahoma89–82
Wvs Creighton87–70
Wvs Stanford82–77
Lvs BYU48–68
Wvs UCF77–62

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs VCU78–82
Lvs Clemson79–80
L@ Duke61–76
Wvs Clemson67–63
Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs North Carolina Tar Heels

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

West Virginia

North Carolina

West Virginia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Virginia

North Carolina