Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 7:30 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oakland and Houston
OAK	This season	HOU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 93–57 · win probability HOU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

OAK 1, HOU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OAKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: OAK 38.1, HOU 26.3. Allowed: OAK 24.6, HOU 38.7

HOUBig

HOU offense vs OAK defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 266th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

OAK offense vs HOU defense

Offense 159th of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OAK 14.7%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: OAK 15.1%, HOU 20.7%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: OAK plays 71.1 a game (67th fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OAK 52.7 and allows 54.7; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OAK 31.3%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: OAK 65.6%, HOU 69.7%

Context

Schedule so far

OAK has played the 150th-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

OAK hits 34.7% and allows 34.3%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 34.0% and 40.7% of their shots

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 0-0 at home, OAK 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OAK 20%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: OAK 5, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -36.5	—
Total	—	149.9	—
Projected score	—	OAK 56.7 · HOU 93.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -21.6	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	OAK 24.3 · HOU 45.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OAK LWWLL	17-14	55%	10-7	—
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	10-6	—

Venue/role: OAK away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OAK UUUOO	19-12	61%	15-16
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OAK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oakland

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs NKU	L84–85LO
Dec 5	@ IUIN	W86–74WU
Dec 8	@ ARK	L62–92LO

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs QUC	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs CARK	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs TXST	W72–37WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

OAK 0–1 HOUHOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · OAK 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	OAK 45 @ HOU 78	HOU -30.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oakland

31 games played

Straight up

15-16

48% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1648%

L L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1261%

O O U O O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U O O U U U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 17	@UCF	L 83-87	+13.5	W +9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 21	@EMU	L 91-97	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	vsLAM	W 83-68	-3.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 25	@MONT	W 95-87	+4.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 182
Dec 3	vsPFW	W 101-92	-4.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 193
Dec 6	vsTOL	W 98-97	-4.5	L −3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@UNI	L 63-75	+8.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 17	@NKU	W 82-77	+3.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsMSU	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	@WRST	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@YSU	W 85-83	+1.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	vsRMU	W 96-73	-1.5	W +21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 9	vsCLE	W 97-74	-15.5	W +7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	vsWRST	L 84-94	-4.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 178
Jan 15	@MILW	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@GB	W 88-63	-4.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsIUIN	L 85-103	-14.5	L −32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 24	@DETM	W 95-87	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 28	@PFW	W 74-65	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 139
Feb 1	vsNKU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	@CLE	L 78-91	-7.5	L −20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 12	vsYSU	L 82-86	-3.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@RMU	L 69-93	+1.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 20	vsGB	L 68-73	-6.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	vsMILW	W 81-70	-5.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	@IUIN	W 86-74	-5.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsDETM	L 89-95	-8.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 184
Mar 4	vsNKU	L 84-85	-1.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

UCF

L 83-87

+9.5

EMU

L 91-97

−7.5

LAM

W 83-68

+11.5

MONT

W 95-87

+12.5

PFW

W 101-92

+4.5

TOL

W 98-97

−3.5

UNI

L 63-75

−3.5

NKU

W 82-77

+8.5

MSU

L 70-79

+10.5

WRST

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 85-83

+3.5

RMU

W 96-73

+21.5

CLE

W 97-74

+7.5

WRST

L 84-94

−14.5

MILW

W 73-60

+10.5

W 88-63

+20.5

IUIN

L 85-103

−32.5

DETM

W 95-87

+1.5

PFW

W 74-65

+7.5

NKU

W 76-65

+7.5

CLE

L 78-91

−20.5

YSU

L 82-86

−7.5

RMU

L 69-93

−22.5

L 68-73

−11.5

MILW

W 81-70

+5.5

IUIN

W 86-74

+6.5

DETM

L 89-95

−14.5

NKU

L 84-85

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

UCF

L 83-87

+6.5

EMU

L 91-97

+34.5

LAM

W 83-68

+2.5

MONT

W 95-87

+19.5

PFW

W 101-92

+30.5

TOL

W 98-97

+28.5

UNI

L 63-75

−11.5

NKU

W 82-77

−4.5

MSU

L 70-79

−6.5

WRST

L 73-88

+1.5

YSU

W 85-83

+10.5

RMU

W 96-73

+7.5

CLE

W 97-74

+1.5

WRST

L 84-94

+16.5

MILW

W 73-60

−33.5

W 88-63

−2.5

IUIN

L 85-103

+11.5

DETM

W 95-87

+14.5

PFW

W 74-65

−23.5

NKU

W 76-65

−25.5

CLE

L 78-91

−1.5

YSU

L 82-86

+12.5

RMU

L 69-93

+5.5

L 68-73

−12.5

MILW

W 81-70

−8.5

IUIN

W 86-74

−9.5

DETM

L 89-95

+23.5

NKU

L 84-85

+7.5

over 19under 12avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: Oakland 0, Houston 4, even 1

OaklandBetterHouston

G N. Mashhour9 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 22

HOUBig

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

G B. Swartz TR7.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41

HOUBig

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

F B. El Shakery TR11.2 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 59

HOUBig

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

F C. Fields TR9.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 79

Even

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

F J. Hill TR7 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

HOUBig

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

OaklandBetterHouston

OAK offense159th of 366 · -4.8

HOUBig

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

OAK defense266th of 366 · -6.8

HOUBig

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

Backcourt-3.2 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.7 · 2 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestOAK betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oakland

Guards

N. Mashhour28 minB. Swartz21 min · TRW. Marshall12 minR. Taylor11 min · TRW. KassiNewH. MashhourNew

Forwards

B. El Shakery27 min · TRC. Fields18 min · TRJ. Hill17 min · TRN. AhnerNewC. ThompsonNewI. TheodileNew

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OAK81.6 #37

HOU76.9 #119

Points per possession

OAK1.14 #66

HOU1.18 #36

Pace (possessions)

OAK71.1 #67

HOU65.0 #346

Shooting

Effective FG%

OAK52.7 #114

HOU51.9 #150

3-point %

OAK34.7 #131

HOU34.7 #134

3-point attempt rate

OAK34.0 #294

HOU40.7 #153

Free throw rate

OAK38.1 #100

HOU26.3 #355

Possessions

Turnover rate

OAK14.7 #47

HOU12.8 #3

Offensive rebound rate

OAK31.3 #152

HOU35.7 #32

Assists per game

OAK15.7 #60

HOU14.6 #111

Defense

Points allowed

OAK82.8 #344

HOU62.3 #1

Points allowed per possession

OAK1.17 #340

HOU0.96 #5

Opponent effective FG%

OAK54.7 #322

HOU46.2 #12

Opponent 3-point %

OAK34.3 #206

HOU31.6 #49

Turnovers forced

OAK15.1 #275

HOU20.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

OAK65.6 #324

HOU69.7 #173

Steals per game

OAK7.2 #106

HOU7.5 #75

Blocks per game

OAK3.7 #110

HOU3.8 #96

OAK		HOU
Scoring
81.6 #37	Points per game	76.9 #119
1.14 #66	Points per possession	1.18 #36
71.1 #67	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #346
Shooting
52.7 #114	Effective FG%	51.9 #150
34.7 #131	3-point %	34.7 #134
34.0 #294	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #153
38.1 #100	Free throw rate	26.3 #355
Possessions
14.7 #47	Turnover rate	12.8 #3
31.3 #152	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #32
15.7 #60	Assists per game	14.6 #111
Defense
82.8 #344	Points allowed	62.3 #1
1.17 #340	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #5
54.7 #322	Opponent effective FG%	46.2 #12
34.3 #206	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #49
15.1 #275	Turnovers forced	20.7 #14
65.6 #324	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #173
7.2 #106	Steals per game	7.5 #75
3.7 #110	Blocks per game	3.8 #96

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oakland

15-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky84–85
Lvs Detroit Mercy89–95
W@ IU Indy86–74
Wvs Milwaukee81–70
Lvs Green Bay68–73

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Houston Cougars

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oakland

Houston

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oakland

Houston