Missouri State Bears at Oral Roberts Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 8:00 PM ETMabee Center · at Oral Roberts

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Missouri St and Oral Roberts
MOST	This season	ORU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORU 74–74 · win probability ORU 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MOST has more of the edges

MOST 7, ORU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MOSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MOST 16.7%, ORU 18.4%. Forced: MOST 16.9%, ORU 14.7%

MOSTSmall

Three-pointers

MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%; ORU hits 32.0% and allows 37.4%. Threes are 41.3% and 45.6% of their shots

MOSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MOST 43.8, ORU 34.8. Allowed: MOST 40.2, ORU 39.1

MOSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0; ORU 49.6 and allows 53.6

Context

Schedule so far

MOST has played the 180th-hardest schedule, ORU the 246th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MOST plays 67.4 a game (261st fastest), ORU 69.7 (134th). Faster games mean more points

MOSTSmall

ORU offense vs MOST defense

Offense 279th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings

MOSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MOST 32.0%, ORU 28.4%. Defensive: MOST 68.0%, ORU 68.2%

ORUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MOST 25%, ORU 54%. Transfers in: MOST 0, ORU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ORUSmall

Home court

ORU at home. This season: ORU 0-0 at home, MOST 0-0 away

MOSTSmall

MOST offense vs ORU defense

Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 326th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MOST -0.1	—
Total	—	147.1	—
Projected score	—	MOST 73.6 · ORU 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MOST -0.2	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	MOST 34.5 · ORU 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST WLWWL	18-13	58%	9-4	—
ORU WWWWW	14-16	47%	5-7	—

Venue/role: MOST away; ORU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUOO	19-12	61%	13-18
ORU UOOUU	13-17	43%	7-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ORU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Missouri St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs LIN	W70–65WU
Dec 3	@ ARST	L85–86LO
Dec 6	vs TLSA	L74–98LO

Oral Roberts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ CREI	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs ARK	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs UL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MOST 4–1 ORUMOST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MOST has won the last 3 meetings · MOST 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2025-26	ORU 62 @ MOST 63	MOST -4.5	ORU W
Dec 1, 2024-25	MOST 72 @ ORU 67	ORU +1.5	MOST W
Nov 13, 2023-24	ORU 69 @ MOST 84	MOST -6.5	MOST W
Dec 16, 2022-23	MOST 77 @ ORU 80	ORU -8.5	MOST W
Dec 11, 2021-22	ORU 60 @ MOST 69	MOST -7.5	MOST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Missouri St

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

L L W L L L W W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W L L W L W W W W L W L W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1261%

O U U U O U U U U O O O U O O O U O O O O O O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLIU	L 61-75	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 6	@TLSA	L 74-98	+7.5	L −16.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 12	@XAV	L 57-75	+18.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 16	vsORU	W 63-62	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 125
Dec 23	vsLIN	W 70-65	-3.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 29	@DEL	W 61-43	-1.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 104
Jan 2	vsUTEP	W 79-55	-3.5	W +20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	vsNMSU	W 89-82	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 171
Jan 7	@KENN	L 80-90	+6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsFIU	W 79-71	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 150
Jan 14	@WKU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	@MTSU	L 87-90	+5.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 22	@NMSU	W 84-75	+6.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 24	@UTEP	W 62-57	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 28	vsSHSU	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsJXST	W 74-67	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 7	@LIB	L 76-79	+9.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsLT	L 78-79	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsDEL	L 67-76	-9.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 18	vsKENN	L 87-91	-1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 21	@FIU	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 26	@LT	L 70-72	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@SHSU	L 81-86	+6.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsWKU	W 87-74	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	vsMTSU	L 63-75	-2.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 10	vsFIU	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 147
Mar 11	vsLIB	W 77-69	+4.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 13	vsLT	L 66-69	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

LIU

L 61-75

−18.5

TLSA

L 74-98

−16.5

XAV

L 57-75

+0.5

ORU

W 63-62

−3.5

LIN

W 70-65

+1.5

DEL

W 61-43

+16.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+20.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+5.5

KENN

L 80-90

−3.5

FIU

W 79-71

+5.5

WKU

L 72-87

−8.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+2.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+15.5

UTEP

W 62-57

+3.5

SHSU

L 71-80

−10.5

JXST

W 74-67

+2.5

LIB

L 76-79

+6.5

L 78-79

−4.5

DEL

L 67-76

−18.5

KENN

L 87-91

−5.5

FIU

L 67-70

+0.5

L 70-72

+0.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+1.5

WKU

W 87-74

+14.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−14.5

FIU

W 75-72

+1.5

LIB

W 77-69

+12.5

L 66-69

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

LIU

L 61-75

−9.5

TLSA

L 74-98

+29.5

XAV

L 57-75

−19.5

ORU

W 63-62

−21.5

LIN

W 70-65

−10.5

DEL

W 61-43

−27.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+2.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+36.5

KENN

L 80-90

+17.5

FIU

W 79-71

−3.5

WKU

L 72-87

+10.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+39.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+14.5

UTEP

W 62-57

−20.5

SHSU

L 71-80

+2.5

JXST

W 74-67

+5.5

LIB

L 76-79

+14.5

L 78-79

+20.5

DEL

L 67-76

+7.5

KENN

L 87-91

+25.5

FIU

L 67-70

−17.5

L 70-72

+3.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+14.5

WKU

W 87-74

+8.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−7.5

FIU

W 75-72

−5.5

LIB

W 77-69

+3.5

L 66-69

+0.5

over 19under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oral Roberts

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L W W W L L W W W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O U U O O U O U U U U U O O O U U U U O O U O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@OKST	L 71-95	+20.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsTLSA	L 87-88	+5.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 15	vsBEL	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 20	@OU	L 71-95	+24.5	W +0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 24	@FGCU	L 88-93	+11.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsKENN	W 91-83	+8.5	W +16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsRICE	L 62-81	+5.5	L −13.5	150.5	U 143
Dec 3	@WEB	L 66-92	+7.5	L −18.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMTST	W 72-68	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 16	@MOST	L 62-63	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 125
Dec 18	@TCU	L 53-72	+23.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 125
Dec 22	vsUTA	L 57-69	+3.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 126
Jan 1	@UND	L 61-72	+1.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 3	@NDSU	L 77-79	+13.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSTMN	L 71-82	+8.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 14	@DEN	L 87-98	+6.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 185
Jan 17	vsOMA	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 22	vsUND	L 62-79	-1.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 141
Jan 24	vsNDSU	L 58-86	+10.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 29	@SDAK	L 69-77	+3.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SDST	L 72-95	+13.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 7	@STMN	L 75-92	+15.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	vsKC	W 69-60	-6.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSDST	L 69-87	+5.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 18	@OMA	L 71-80	+6.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 21	vsSDAK	W 67-62	-1.5	W +3.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsDEN	W 102-80	+2.5	W +24.5	156.5	O 182
Feb 28	@KC	W 94-70	-3.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsKC	W 84-62	-8.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 5	vsNDSU	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKST

L 71-95

−3.5

TLSA

L 87-88

+4.5

BEL

L 60-83

−15.5

L 71-95

+0.5

FGCU

L 88-93

+6.5

KENN

W 91-83

+16.5

RICE

L 62-81

−13.5

WEB

L 66-92

−18.5

MTST

W 72-68

+10.5

MOST

L 62-63

+3.5

TCU

L 53-72

+4.5

UTA

L 57-69

−8.5

UND

L 61-72

−9.5

NDSU

L 77-79

+11.5

STMN

L 71-82

−2.5

DEN

L 87-98

−4.5

OMA

L 62-73

−12.5

UND

L 62-79

−18.5

NDSU

L 58-86

−17.5

SDAK

L 69-77

−4.5

SDST

L 72-95

−9.5

STMN

L 75-92

−1.5

W 69-60

+2.5

SDST

L 69-87

−12.5

OMA

L 71-80

−2.5

SDAK

W 67-62

+3.5

DEN

W 102-80

+24.5

W 94-70

+20.5

W 84-62

+13.5

NDSU

L 65-76

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKST

L 71-95

+0.5

TLSA

L 87-88

+14.5

BEL

L 60-83

−28.5

L 71-95

−0.5

FGCU

L 88-93

+27.5

KENN

W 91-83

+7.5

RICE

L 62-81

−7.5

WEB

L 66-92

+0.5

MTST

W 72-68

−10.5

MOST

L 62-63

−21.5

TCU

L 53-72

−22.5

UTA

L 57-69

−10.5

UND

L 61-72

−15.5

NDSU

L 77-79

+9.5

STMN

L 71-82

+0.5

DEN

L 87-98

+28.5

OMA

L 62-73

−14.5

UND

L 62-79

−8.5

NDSU

L 58-86

−7.5

SDAK

L 69-77

−8.5

SDST

L 72-95

+16.5

STMN

L 75-92

+15.5

W 69-60

−21.5

SDST

L 69-87

+8.5

OMA

L 71-80

−0.5

SDAK

W 67-62

−22.5

DEN

W 102-80

+25.5

W 94-70

+14.5

W 84-62

−3.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−6.5

over 13under 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Missouri St 1, Oral Roberts 1, even 3

Missouri StBetterOral Roberts

G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34

ORUSmall

G C. Dow12.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50

G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

MOSTSmall

G C. Furnish3.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 10

F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19

Even

G C. Martin2.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 8

F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G M. Kilups3.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 9

F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F L. Gray7.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 57

Missouri StBetterOral Roberts

MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4

Even

ORU defense326th of 366 · -8.4

MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7

MOSTSmall

ORU offense279th of 366 · -8.5

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

MOSTBig

Backcourt-7.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.5 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMOST betterORU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Missouri St

Guards

T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew

Forwards

C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew

Centers

A. AcimovicNew

Oral Roberts

Guards

C. Dow33 minC. Furnish21 minC. Martin20 minM. Kilups18 minC. Haffner13 min · TRA. Robinson9 min · TR

Forwards

L. Gray17 minT. ZorbasNewM. PavlovicNewM. GavazovNewA. BlancoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MOST73.1 #223

ORU71.8 #250

Points per possession

MOST1.09 #169

ORU1.03 #291

Pace (possessions)

MOST67.4 #261

ORU69.7 #134

Shooting

Effective FG%

MOST51.1 #191

ORU49.6 #256

3-point %

MOST33.0 #236

ORU32.0 #282

3-point attempt rate

MOST41.3 #144

ORU45.6 #56

Free throw rate

MOST43.8 #12

ORU34.8 #187

Possessions

Turnover rate

MOST16.7 #180

ORU18.4 #293

Offensive rebound rate

MOST32.0 #124

ORU28.4 #249

Assists per game

MOST13.9 #155

ORU11.5 #312

Defense

Points allowed

MOST74.3 #166

ORU79.7 #312

Points allowed per possession

MOST1.10 #222

ORU1.15 #319

Opponent effective FG%

MOST52.0 #217

ORU53.6 #289

Opponent 3-point %

MOST34.4 #209

ORU37.4 #348

Turnovers forced

MOST16.9 #158

ORU14.7 #310

Defensive rebound rate

MOST68.0 #261

ORU68.2 #247

Steals per game

MOST6.7 #152

ORU5.7 #268

Blocks per game

MOST3.0 #215

ORU3.4 #154

MOST		ORU
Scoring
73.1 #223	Points per game	71.8 #250
1.09 #169	Points per possession	1.03 #291
67.4 #261	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #134
Shooting
51.1 #191	Effective FG%	49.6 #256
33.0 #236	3-point %	32.0 #282
41.3 #144	3-point attempt rate	45.6 #56
43.8 #12	Free throw rate	34.8 #187
Possessions
16.7 #180	Turnover rate	18.4 #293
32.0 #124	Offensive rebound rate	28.4 #249
13.9 #155	Assists per game	11.5 #312
Defense
74.3 #166	Points allowed	79.7 #312
1.10 #222	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #319
52.0 #217	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #289
34.4 #209	Opponent 3-point %	37.4 #348
16.9 #158	Turnovers forced	14.7 #310
68.0 #261	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #247
6.7 #152	Steals per game	5.7 #268
3.0 #215	Blocks per game	3.4 #154

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
Wvs Liberty77–69
Wvs FIU75–72
Lvs MTSU63–75
Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.

Oral Roberts

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-13 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Dakota St65–76
Wvs Kansas City84–62
W@ Kansas City94–70
Wvs Denver102–80
Wvs South Dakota67–62

A week or more of rest.

Missouri State Bears at Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

What could decide it: MOST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Missouri St

Oral Roberts

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Missouri St

Oral Roberts