Central Arkansas Bears at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#2HOUHouston AP #10

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: C Arkansas and Houston
CARK	This season	HOU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 91–54 · win probability HOU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

CARK 2, HOU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOUBig

HOU offense vs CARK defense

Offense 10th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

CARK offense vs HOU defense

Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, HOU the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CARKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, HOU 26.3. Allowed: CARK 30.1, HOU 38.7

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), HOU 65.0 (346th). Faster games mean more points

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; HOU 51.9 and allows 46.2

HOUSmall

Three-pointers

CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; HOU hits 34.7% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 48.7% and 40.7% of their shots

CARKSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, HOU 26%. Transfers in: CARK 2, HOU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, HOU 12.8%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, HOU 20.7%

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, HOU 35.7%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, HOU 69.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOU -36.7	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	CARK 54.4 · HOU 91.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -21.7	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	CARK 23.2 · HOU 44.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CARK WWWWL	20-12	63%	8-8	—
HOU WLWWL	19-18	51%	10-6	—

Venue/role: CARK away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CARK OUOUO	16-16	50%	20-12
HOU UOUOU	15-22	41%	30-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CARK	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

C Arkansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ COLO	No recent meeting
Dec 15	vs ETAM	L68–75LU

Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs TXST	W72–37WU
Dec 8	vs ALA	L80–85LO
Dec 13	vs LSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Arkansas

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

20-12

63% covers · avg +5.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

L L L L W W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1263%

L L L L W W L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

U U O U O O U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U O U O U O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 20	@UNT	L 56-74	+16.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 23	vsEWU	W 92-65	+4.5	W +31.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsEIU	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 29	@ETSU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsLR	W 85-47	-3.5	W +34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 7	@ETAM	L 68-75	+2.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 13	@VAN	L 72-83	+36.5	W +25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 21	@SMU	L 82-99	+24.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 181
Jan 1	vsFGCU	W 85-83	+2.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 168
Jan 3	vsSTET	W 93-73	-11.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 166
Jan 8	@BELL	L 78-84	-2.5	L −8.5	154.5	O 162
Jan 10	@EKU	L 75-79	-1.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Jan 15	vsJAX	W 62-60	-7.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 122
Jan 17	vsUNF	W 98-69	-12.5	W +16.5	164.5	O 167
Jan 22	@WGA	W 86-65	-3.5	W +17.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 28	@QUC	W 100-90	+5.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 190
Jan 31	vsEKU	W 90-81	-4.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 4	vsUNA	W 81-60	-10.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 141
Feb 7	@LIP	W 86-78	+3.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 164
Feb 9	@UNA	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 137
Feb 11	vsBELL	W 84-76	-8.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsWGA	W 79-62	-10.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 19	@STET	W 88-76	-9.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	@FGCU	L 71-75	-1.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 146
Feb 25	@APSU	W 93-88	+4.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 28	vsQUC	W 84-79	-2.5	W +2.5	163.5	U 163
Mar 6	vsBELL	W 86-73	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 159
Mar 7	vsFGCU	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 136
Mar 8	vsQUC	L 93-98	-1.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

UNT

L 56-74

−1.5

EWU

W 92-65

+31.5

EIU

W 81-60

+15.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−10.5

W 85-47

+34.5

ETAM

L 68-75

−4.5

VAN

L 72-83

+25.5

SMU

L 82-99

+7.5

FGCU

W 85-83

+4.5

STET

W 93-73

+8.5

BELL

L 78-84

−8.5

EKU

L 75-79

−5.5

JAX

W 62-60

−5.5

UNF

W 98-69

+16.5

WGA

W 86-65

+17.5

QUC

W 100-90

+15.5

EKU

W 90-81

+4.5

UNA

W 81-60

+10.5

LIP

W 86-78

+11.5

UNA

W 72-65

+0.5

BELL

W 84-76

−0.5

WGA

W 79-62

+6.5

STET

W 88-76

+2.5

FGCU

L 71-75

−5.5

APSU

W 93-88

+9.5

QUC

W 84-79

+2.5

BELL

W 86-73

+6.5

FGCU

W 73-63

+5.5

QUC

L 93-98

−6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 12avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

UNT

L 56-74

−4.5

EWU

W 92-65

+2.5

EIU

W 81-60

+1.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−7.5

W 85-47

−6.5

ETAM

L 68-75

−2.5

VAN

L 72-83

−3.5

SMU

L 82-99

+24.5

FGCU

W 85-83

+11.5

STET

W 93-73

+18.5

BELL

L 78-84

+7.5

EKU

L 75-79

−2.5

JAX

W 62-60

−14.5

UNF

W 98-69

+2.5

WGA

W 86-65

−3.5

QUC

W 100-90

+31.5

EKU

W 90-81

+19.5

UNA

W 81-60

−6.5

LIP

W 86-78

+8.5

UNA

W 72-65

−8.5

BELL

W 84-76

+9.5

WGA

W 79-62

−9.5

STET

W 88-76

+14.5

FGCU

L 71-75

−6.5

APSU

W 93-88

+28.5

QUC

W 84-79

−0.5

BELL

W 86-73

+4.5

FGCU

W 73-63

−8.5

QUC

L 93-98

+33.5

over 16under 16avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

37 games played

Straight up

30-7

81% wins

Against the spread

19-18

51% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-781%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L L L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1851%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U O U U O U O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125
Jan 18	vsASU	W 103-73	-18.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 24	@TTU	L 86-90	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 28	@TCU	W 79-70	-8.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149
Jan 31	vsCIN	W 76-54	-13.5	W +8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsUCF	W 79-55	-15.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 7	@BYU	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 10	@UTAH	W 66-52	-16.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 14	vsKSU	W 78-64	-22.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 16	@ISU	L 67-70	+2.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 21	vsARIZ	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 23	@KU	L 56-69	-2.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	vsCOLO	W 102-62	-20.5	W +19.5	139.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsBAY	W 77-64	-12.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 141
Mar 7	@OKST	W 82-75	-13.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsBYU	W 73-66	-9.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 13	vsKU	W 69-47	-5.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 14	vsARIZ	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 153
Mar 19	vsIDHO	W 78-47	-24.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 21	vsTA&M	W 88-57	-10.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 26	vsILL	L 55-65	-2.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

ASU

W 103-73

+11.5

TTU

L 86-90

−5.5

TCU

W 79-70

+0.5

CIN

W 76-54

+8.5

UCF

W 79-55

+8.5

BYU

W 77-66

+9.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−2.5

KSU

W 78-64

−8.5

ISU

L 67-70

−0.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−13.5

L 56-69

−15.5

COLO

W 102-62

+19.5

BAY

W 77-64

+0.5

OKST

W 82-75

−6.5

BYU

W 73-66

−2.5

W 69-47

+16.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

−3.5

IDHO

W 78-47

+6.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+20.5

ILL

L 55-65

−12.5

covered 19didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

ASU

W 103-73

+33.5

TTU

L 86-90

+34.5

TCU

W 79-70

+9.5

CIN

W 76-54

−5.5

UCF

W 79-55

−12.5

BYU

W 77-66

−8.5

UTAH

W 66-52

−24.5

KSU

W 78-64

−2.5

ISU

L 67-70

+2.5

ARIZ

L 66-73

−3.5

L 56-69

−13.5

COLO

W 102-62

+24.5

BAY

W 77-64

−2.5

OKST

W 82-75

+5.5

BYU

W 73-66

−7.5

W 69-47

−23.5

ARIZ

L 74-79

+14.5

IDHO

W 78-47

−12.5

TA&M

W 88-57

+2.5

ILL

L 55-65

−21.5

over 15under 22avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Houston has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Houston 4, even 1

C ArkansasBetterHouston

G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28

HOUBig

G C. Hadnot TR20.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.6 ast Score 95

G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89

Even

G D. Thomas TR15.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast Score 99

G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44

HOUBig

F D. Gillespie TR17.9 pts · 11.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 94

G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8

HOUBig

F B. East TR12.8 pts · 9.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 92

F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3

HOUBig

F J. Tugler8.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96

C ArkansasBetterHouston

CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1

HOUBig

HOU defense1st of 366 · +13.2

CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4

HOUBig

HOU offense10th of 366 · +10.1

Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+10.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 4 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCARK betterHOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

C Arkansas

Guards

L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min

Forwards

M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew

Houston

Guards

C. Hadnot35 min · TRD. Thomas29 min · TRC. Weaver21 min · TRM. Miller12 minK. Jefferson4 minB. JacksonNew

Forwards

D. Gillespie33 min · TRB. East24 min · TRJ. Tugler24 minC. McCarty12 min

Centers

A. DianeNewD. SilimanaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CARK79.3 #77

HOU76.9 #119

Points per possession

CARK1.13 #90

HOU1.18 #36

Pace (possessions)

CARK70.2 #105

HOU65.0 #346

Shooting

Effective FG%

CARK54.0 #68

HOU51.9 #150

3-point %

CARK35.5 #89

HOU34.7 #134

3-point attempt rate

CARK48.7 #21

HOU40.7 #153

Free throw rate

CARK31.2 #278

HOU26.3 #355

Possessions

Turnover rate

CARK15.4 #92

HOU12.8 #3

Offensive rebound rate

CARK28.8 #240

HOU35.7 #32

Assists per game

CARK16.0 #46

HOU14.6 #111

Defense

Points allowed

CARK76.0 #216

HOU62.3 #1

Points allowed per possession

CARK1.08 #180

HOU0.96 #5

Opponent effective FG%

CARK54.9 #328

HOU46.2 #12

Opponent 3-point %

CARK35.2 #262

HOU31.6 #49

Turnovers forced

CARK19.1 #45

HOU20.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

CARK72.6 #48

HOU69.7 #173

Steals per game

CARK8.5 #18

HOU7.5 #75

Blocks per game

CARK1.9 #351

HOU3.8 #96

CARK		HOU
Scoring
79.3 #77	Points per game	76.9 #119
1.13 #90	Points per possession	1.18 #36
70.2 #105	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #346
Shooting
54.0 #68	Effective FG%	51.9 #150
35.5 #89	3-point %	34.7 #134
48.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	40.7 #153
31.2 #278	Free throw rate	26.3 #355
Possessions
15.4 #92	Turnover rate	12.8 #3
28.8 #240	Offensive rebound rate	35.7 #32
16.0 #46	Assists per game	14.6 #111
Defense
76.0 #216	Points allowed	62.3 #1
1.08 #180	Points allowed per possession	0.96 #5
54.9 #328	Opponent effective FG%	46.2 #12
35.2 #262	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #49
19.1 #45	Turnovers forced	20.7 #14
72.6 #48	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #173
8.5 #18	Steals per game	7.5 #75
1.9 #351	Blocks per game	3.8 #96

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
Wvs FGCU73–63
Wvs Bellarmine86–73
Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Houston

30-7 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois55–65
Wvs Texas A&M88–57
Wvs Idaho78–47
Lvs Arizona74–79
Wvs Kansas69–47

A week or more of rest.

Central Arkansas Bears at Houston Cougars

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

C Arkansas

Houston

Houston has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

C Arkansas

Houston