1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. VAN @ ND
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Vanderbilt Commodores at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
#22VANVanderbilt AP #24
@
#71NDNotre Dame
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VANThis seasonND
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 80–74 · win probability VAN 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

VAN 3, ND 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VANBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VAN 13.5%, ND 16.9%. Forced: VAN 17.7%, ND 14.0%
VANBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0; ND 52.3 and allows 51.8
NDSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VAN 31.2%, ND 31.2%. Defensive: VAN 68.5%, ND 73.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: VAN plays 70.9 a game (80th fastest), ND 67.7 (239th). Faster games mean more points
NDSmall
Home court
ND at home. This season: ND 0-0 at home, VAN 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
VAN has played the 21st-hardest schedule, ND the 69th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VANSmall
ND offense vs VAN defense
Offense 76th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings
Even
VAN offense vs ND defense
Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 63rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VAN 26%, ND 38%. Transfers in: VAN 5, ND 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%; ND hits 35.6% and allows 33.2%. Threes are 44.2% and 43.5% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VAN 38.1, ND 34.1. Allowed: VAN 39.5, ND 36.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VAN -5.7—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—VAN 80 · ND 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVAN -3.5—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreVAN 37.8 · ND 34.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Position by position: Vanderbilt 3, Notre Dame 2, even 0
VanderbiltBetterNotre Dame
G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100
VANSmall
G B. Shrewsberry15 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86
VANSmall
G E. Roberts TR11 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Score 64
F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
NDBig
G B. Smith TR16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 91
F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90
VANBig
G D. Brown TR6.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 43
C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61
NDBig
C L. Duncomb TR18.2 pts · 8.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 99
VanderbiltBetterNotre Dame
VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6
Even
ND defense63rd of 366 · +1.2
VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7
Even
ND offense76th of 366 · +1.1
Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players
VANBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players
NDBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestVAN betterND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Vanderbilt
Guards
T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew
Forwards
S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew
Centers
B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min
Notre Dame
Guards
B. Shrewsberry36 minE. Roberts32 min · TRB. Smith31 min · TRD. Brown24 min · TRL. Imes21 minB. Stevens2 min
Forwards
B. Koehler16 minB. Ruglass Dortch15 min · TRY. DialloNewL. DevineNew
Centers
L. Duncomb25 min · TRT. AhnemanNewG. SolongoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VANND
Scoring
85.7 #14Points per game74.5 #180
1.21 #9Points per possession1.10 #143
70.9 #80Pace (possessions)67.7 #239
Shooting
55.3 #31Effective FG%52.3 #133
35.6 #863-point %35.6 #82
44.2 #853-point attempt rate43.5 #101
38.1 #101Free throw rate34.1 #206
Possessions
13.5 #15Turnover rate16.9 #199
31.2 #158Offensive rebound rate31.2 #155
16.3 #40Assists per game12.3 #267
Defense
75.0 #187Points allowed75.3 #197
1.06 #99Points allowed per possession1.11 #255
49.0 #67Opponent effective FG%51.8 #200
32.6 #96Opponent 3-point %33.2 #138
17.7 #112Turnovers forced14.0 #337
68.5 #231Defensive rebound rate73.3 #27
7.9 #40Steals per game4.5 #355
4.5 #36Blocks per game2.2 #328
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska72–74
  • Wvs McNeese78–68
  • Lvs Arkansas75–86
  • Wvs Florida91–74
  • Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.

Notre Dame

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Boston College69–77
  • Lvs Stanford78–86
  • Wvs NC State96–90
  • Lvs Duke56–100
  • L@ Pitt68–73

A week or more of rest.