1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. SMU vs LSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

SMU Mustangs vs LSU Tigers

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#55SMUSMU
vs
#51LSULSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMUThis seasonLSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 80–79 · win probability SMU 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

SMU 2, LSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
Three-pointers
SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 35.9% and 34.5% of their shots
SMUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMU 15.8%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: SMU 16.8%, LSU 14.0%
LSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMU 30.4, LSU 40.9. Allowed: SMU 32.1, LSU 37.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMU 20%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: SMU 7, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
SMU offense vs LSU defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings
Even
LSU offense vs SMU defense
Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMU 35.4%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: SMU 68.4%, LSU 68.3%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9
Context
Schedule so far
SMU has played the 70th-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SMU plays 71.1 a game (68th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -0.7—
Total—158.3—
Projected score—SMU 79.5 · LSU 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -0.6—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreSMU 37.3 · LSU 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: SMU 1, LSU 2, even 2
SMUBetterLSU
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
Even
G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
SMUBig
G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
Even
G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
LSUSmall
G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
LSUSmall
F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94
SMUBetterLSU
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Even
LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
Even
LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
SMUSmall
Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
LSUSmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestSMU betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
LSU
Guards
D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew
Forwards
M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew
Centers
B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMULSU
Scoring
84.1 #19Points per game81.4 #41
1.19 #26Points per possession1.15 #60
71.1 #68Pace (possessions)70.5 #95
Shooting
55.6 #27Effective FG%52.8 #111
37.1 #273-point %33.1 #225
35.9 #2523-point attempt rate34.5 #286
30.4 #301Free throw rate40.9 #49
Possessions
15.8 #119Turnover rate15.5 #106
35.4 #37Offensive rebound rate33.1 #87
16.9 #27Assists per game14.7 #106
Defense
77.9 #265Points allowed78.5 #279
1.09 #199Points allowed per possession1.12 #270
51.6 #189Opponent effective FG%50.9 #150
34.1 #188Opponent 3-point %35.4 #271
16.8 #171Turnovers forced14.0 #335
68.4 #237Defensive rebound rate68.3 #239
7.0 #129Steals per game6.0 #240
3.6 #132Blocks per game3.9 #87
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky82–87
  • Lvs Texas A&M91–94
  • L@ Auburn74–88
  • Lvs Oklahoma67–83
  • W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.