1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. SMC vs UCLA
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Saint Mary's Gaels vs UCLA Bruins

Jenny Craig Pavilion · Neutral site
#97SMCSaint Mary's
vs
#26UCLAUCLA AP #22
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMCThis seasonUCLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 74–66 · win probability UCLA 78%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SMC 2, UCLA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMC 37.5%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: SMC 76.1%, UCLA 66.7%
UCLABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMC 16.9%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: SMC 15.1%, UCLA 18.5%
UCLABig
SMC offense vs UCLA defense
Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
SMCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMC 35.5, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: SMC 25.7, UCLA 34.4
Context
Schedule so far
SMC has played the 93rd-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMC 32%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: SMC 5, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 36.4% and 35.5% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: SMC plays 66.2 a game (305th fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points
Even
UCLA offense vs SMC defense
Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCLA -8.7—
Total—140.1—
Projected score—SMC 65.7 · UCLA 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCLA -5.0—
1H total65.6—
1H projected scoreSMC 30.3 · UCLA 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Mary's 0, UCLA 2, even 3
Saint Mary'sBetterUCLA
G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
Even
G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70
G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53
UCLABig
G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21
UCLABig
F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88
F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73
Even
F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
Saint Mary'sBetterUCLA
SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5
UCLASmall
UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4
SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5
Even
UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
UCLABig
Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
UCLABig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench-0.6 · 4 players
Even
Bench+0.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSMC betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Saint Mary's
Guards
J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew
Forwards
T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew
Centers
S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew
UCLA
Guards
J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew
Forwards
E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew
Centers
X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMCUCLA
Scoring
76.8 #125Points per game77.0 #115
1.17 #39Points per possession1.16 #48
66.2 #305Pace (possessions)66.5 #297
Shooting
52.8 #109Effective FG%53.4 #85
38.7 #73-point %37.9 #19
36.4 #2423-point attempt rate35.5 #259
35.5 #162Free throw rate33.1 #237
Possessions
16.9 #201Turnover rate13.4 #14
37.5 #12Offensive rebound rate31.1 #162
15.1 #82Assists per game16.1 #45
Defense
65.2 #7Points allowed71.1 #75
0.98 #14Points allowed per possession1.07 #129
46.8 #20Opponent effective FG%50.4 #120
31.4 #40Opponent 3-point %32.0 #64
15.1 #274Turnovers forced18.5 #76
76.1 #4Defensive rebound rate66.7 #304
5.5 #302Steals per game6.7 #156
3.6 #129Blocks per game3.0 #218
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas A&M50–63
  • Lvs Santa Clara71–76
  • Wvs Gonzaga70–59
  • Wvs Santa Clara86–67
  • W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn57–73
  • Wvs UCF75–71
  • Lvs Purdue66–73
  • Wvs Michigan St88–84
  • Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.