1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. USU vs USC
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Utah State Aggies vs USC Trojans

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#58USUUtah State
vs
#36USCUSC AP #21
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USUThis seasonUSC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 80–78 · win probability USC 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

USU 2, USC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USU 15.1%, USC 17.4%. Forced: USU 20.2%, USC 16.4%
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USU 38.8, USC 44.2. Allowed: USU 39.2, USC 33.4
USUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USU 56.3 and allows 49.7; USC 50.4 and allows 49.7
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: USU plays 68.5 a game (207th fastest), USC 72.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
USCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USU 26%, USC 64%. Transfers in: USU 6, USC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
USU has played the 83rd-hardest schedule, USC the 42nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
USC offense vs USU defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%; USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 40.8% and 34.1% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USU 32.7%, USC 32.4%. Defensive: USU 67.2%, USC 67.8%
Even
USU offense vs USC defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -1.7—
Total—158.2—
Projected score—USU 78.2 · USC 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -0.9—
1H total73.9—
1H projected scoreUSU 36.5 · USC 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: Utah State 0, USC 3, even 2
Utah StateBetterUSC
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
USCSmall
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
Even
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
USCBig
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
USCBig
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Even
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
Utah StateBetterUSC
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Even
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
Even
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Even
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSU betterUSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USUUSC
Scoring
81.3 #43Points per game77.8 #97
1.19 #24Points per possession1.07 #199
68.5 #207Pace (possessions)72.4 #25
Shooting
56.3 #18Effective FG%50.4 #225
34.3 #1553-point %31.7 #299
40.8 #1523-point attempt rate34.1 #292
38.8 #83Free throw rate44.2 #8
Possessions
15.1 #72Turnover rate17.4 #228
32.7 #97Offensive rebound rate32.4 #113
17.1 #21Assists per game14.9 #92
Defense
71.2 #78Points allowed78.4 #277
1.04 #72Points allowed per possession1.08 #173
49.7 #87Opponent effective FG%49.7 #89
34.5 #222Opponent 3-point %30.9 #31
20.2 #18Turnovers forced16.4 #198
67.2 #290Defensive rebound rate67.8 #269
8.5 #17Steals per game6.2 #217
2.9 #252Blocks per game5.5 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.